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Henan Lantian Gas Co (605368) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · CN · Market cap 5.0B CNY

HL Henan Lantian Gas Co 605368 · SHG
Price¥6.62
Fair Value¥6.31
Upside-4.7%
Quality53/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 6.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.70% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Narrow moat 41/100
Evidence: High Range ¥4.41 – ¥8.88 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Share price +3.1% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥4.41 to ¥8.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥12.90 ¥6.15 Fair Value ¥6.31 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.15 – ¥12.90 · fair‑value band ¥4.41 – ¥8.88 · the ¥6.62 price screens above the ¥6.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Henan Lantian Gas Co (605368) currently trades at ¥6.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.31, implying the stock looks roughly 4.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Henan Lantian Gas Co generated revenue of 3.9B CNY at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue declined 12.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.6%. Net debt stands at 787M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥4.41 (bear case) to ¥8.88 (bull case); at ¥6.62, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -5%, 605368 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥1.59 ¥2.36 ¥3.41 80
Residual Income ¥3.87 ¥4.18 ¥4.78 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.70 ¥6.48 ¥9.61 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥1.56 ¥2.43 ¥3.68 38
Owner Earnings ¥2.29 ¥3.53 ¥5.31 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥3.70 ¥6.53 ¥10.18 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥4.14 ¥7.35 ¥11.10 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥3.47 ¥6.11 ¥8.86 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥2.72 ¥5.07 ¥8.27 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥3.15 ¥5.62 ¥8.95 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥2.73 ¥4.78 ¥7.30 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.68 ¥8.00 ¥10.60 54
Lynch FV ¥1.69 ¥2.42 ¥3.14 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥1.69 ¥2.42 ¥3.14 46
EPV ¥3.28 ¥3.83 ¥4.30 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥7.70 ¥15.34 ¥23.24 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥7.70 ¥12.28 ¥16.20 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥5.33 ¥7.10 ¥8.88 63
P/S Multiple ¥5.03 ¥6.71 ¥8.39 58
P/B Multiple ¥5.03 ¥6.71 ¥8.39 55
EV/EBIT ¥6.46 ¥8.67 ¥10.88 53
EV/EBITDA ¥6.36 ¥8.54 ¥10.71 54
EV/Revenue ¥5.20 ¥7.49 ¥9.79 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.30 ¥3.08 ¥4.60 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥1.59 ¥2.36 ¥3.41 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.70 ¥6.48 ¥9.61 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥3.87 ¥4.18 ¥4.78 76
ROIC Compounder ¥3.28 ¥3.83 ¥4.30 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥4.41 ¥6.31 ¥8.20 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥12.28) versus Growth DCF (¥2.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 3.9B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -12.3%
Net margin 6.1%
Return on equity 6.6%
Free cash flow 115M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 22.0
More key figures
Operating margin 9.8%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.3200
Dividend yield 5.7%
EPS growth (YoY) -35.3%
Net debt 787M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Henan Lantian Gas Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, transports and sells natural gas pipelines in China. It operates through Natural Gas Business, Engineering Installation Business, and Others segments. The company develops and utilizes natural gas-related products.

Full company description

Henan Lantian Gas Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, transports and sells natural gas pipelines in China. It operates through Natural Gas Business, Engineering Installation Business, and Others segments. The company develops and utilizes natural gas-related products. It is also involved in midstream long-distance natural gas pipelines and downstream city gas businesses; gas transmission and installation; and natural gas pipeline management services. In addition, the company provides engineering design services; instrument sales, testing, and maintenance; and construction services, as well as sells gas stoves; and operates as an insurance agent. Henan Lantian Gas Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is based in Zhumadian, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Henan Lantian Gas Co reported revenue of ¥4.1B in FY2025 versus ¥3.9B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥282M in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
4.1B CNY
Latest YoY
−14.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−5.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+2.7%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y)
+9.0%
Revenue +1.0%/yr
FY21 ¥3.9B
FY22 ¥4.8B
FY23 ¥4.9B
FY24 ¥4.8B
FY25 ¥4.1B
Net income −9.5%/yr
FY21 ¥421M
FY22 ¥593M
FY23 ¥606M
FY24 ¥503M
FY25 ¥282M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Henan Lantian Gas Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/605368

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −5% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth -12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.7% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.20× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.53× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.30× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 6.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 9.6× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 27 · sector 22
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 26 · sector 34
HEALTH 90 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 67

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.84 €35.80 +24%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $177.68 $85.67 -52%
NiSource Inc NI $47.07 $28.59 -39%
Uniper SE UN0 €42.80 €49.13 +15%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.03 HK$5.08 -28%
Italgas S.p.A IG €9.98 €8.11 -19%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹171.71 ₹147.74 -14%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹723.90 ₹101.36 -86%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥17.30 ¥25.71 +49%
UGI Corporation UGI $35.84 $27.13 -24%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Henan Lantian Gas Co (605368) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.31 versus a price of ¥6.62, about −5% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 605368?
Our model-based fair value for Henan Lantian Gas Co is ¥6.31 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥6.62.
What is the quality score of 605368?
Henan Lantian Gas Co has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Henan Lantian Gas Co (605368)?
Henan Lantian Gas Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 605368?
The net profit margin of Henan Lantian Gas Co is about 6.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Henan Lantian Gas Co pay a dividend?
Henan Lantian Gas Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.70% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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