Caswell Inc (6416) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Caswell Inc TWD 66.16, price TWD 117, upside -43.2%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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CASwell, Inc. operates in network security appliance industry in Taiwan, the United States, Israel, China, the United Kingdom, Japan, France, and internationally. The company engages in the manufacturing of electronic components, computers, and their peripherals, as well as wholesale of electronic materials and information software services.
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CASwell, Inc. operates in network security appliance industry in Taiwan, the United States, Israel, China, the United Kingdom, Japan, France, and internationally. The company engages in the manufacturing of electronic components, computers, and their peripherals, as well as wholesale of electronic materials and information software services. It offers network security and management products, such as 2U, 1U, fanless desktop, desktop, and other core network appliances; cloud and data center switches, including server and telecom; cloud and enterprise network storage servers; and industrial control and automation products comprising industrial firewall and control systems. The company also provides edge/fog computing products, such as SD-WAN/UCPE/VCPE products, X86-based SDN switches, and NFV servers; proprietary, proprietary PoE, network, and POE network adapters; and proprietary acceleration, storage proprietary, and network acceleration modules. CASwell, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in New Taipei City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Caswell Inc (6416) currently trades at 116.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 66.16 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 76.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 94.96 TWD per share, and 2 of the 25 models we run sit above the 116.50 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 26.97 TWD, and 23 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 44.92 TWD (bear) to 92.11 TWD (bull), the price of 116.50 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Caswell Inc reported revenue of 4.3B TWD in FY2025 versus 4.7B TWD in FY2021, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was 316M TWD in FY2025, compounding +9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.4B TWD (≈ $263M) · P/E ratio 27.2 · P/S ratio 1.99 · EPS (TTM) 4.29 TWD · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 7.3% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at −43%, 6416 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 44.92 TWDFair Value 66.16 TWDBull 92.11 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.09 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.0% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs −3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 316 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−43% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)27.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.33× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.97× · Pricier than median
P/FCF1.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA19.6× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 37
PAST (return on equity)36· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)48· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Caswell Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6416
Frequently asked questions
Is Caswell Inc (6416) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 66.16 TWD versus a price of 116.50 TWD, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6416?
Our model-based fair value for Caswell Inc is 66.16 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 116.50 TWD.
What is the quality score of 6416?
Caswell Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Caswell Inc (6416)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 66.16 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 44.92 TWD, optimistic scenario 92.11 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Caswell Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 66.16 TWD, about −43% upside versus a price of 116.50 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 44.92 TWD, optimistic scenario 92.11 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Caswell Inc (6416)?
Caswell Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.3B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Caswell Inc pay a dividend?
Caswell Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Caswell Inc (6416)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Caswell Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +25.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6416 use?
Our models discount Caswell Inc at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Caswell Inc that is +25.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Caswell Inc (6416) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Caswell Inc grew -4.6 % a year. The price currently implies +25.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Caswell Inc (6416) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Caswell Inc (+25.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Caswell Inc (6416)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.10 %: that much free cash flow Caswell Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Caswell Inc (6416)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Caswell Inc it is 66.16 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 116.50 TWD. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Caswell Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6416 trades above its calculated fair value: price 116.50 TWD, fair value 66.16 TWD, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6416?
No. The price is what the market pays today (116.50 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (66.16 TWD). For Caswell Inc the two are 50.34 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Caswell Inc worth?
The market values Caswell Inc at about 8.4B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 116.50 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 66.16 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6416?
Our models span a range for Caswell Inc: cautious scenario 44.92 TWD, base 66.16 TWD, optimistic 92.11 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 116.50 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6416?
Caswell Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 66.16 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 19.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Caswell Inc (6416)?
Balance-sheet figures for Caswell Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.0%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6416 from its 52-week high?
Caswell Inc trades at 116.50 TWD, about 4% below its 52-week high of 121.00 TWD and 55% above the low of 75.00 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 66.16 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Caswell Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Caswell Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 116.50 TWD, calculated fair value 66.16 TWD (−43%), Quality Score 65/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6416 calculated?
We run Caswell Inc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 66.16 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Caswell Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Caswell Inc (6416)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 116.50 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 66.16 TWD, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Caswell Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (92.11 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (44.92 TWD to 92.11 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Caswell Inc (6416) come from?
Earnings per share at Caswell Inc grew −2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.6 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Caswell Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Caswell Inc (6416)?
The market capitalisation of Caswell Inc is 8.4B TWD (≈ $263M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Caswell Inc (6416)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Caswell Inc is 1.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Caswell Inc (6416)?
Earnings per share at Caswell Inc are 4.29 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Caswell Inc (6416)?
The dividend yield of Caswell Inc is 2.4% (payout 65.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Caswell Inc (6416)?
The net margin of Caswell Inc is 7.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Caswell Inc (6416)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Caswell Inc is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Caswell Inc (6416)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Caswell Inc is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Caswell Inc (6416)?
The operating margin of Caswell Inc is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Caswell Inc (6416)?
Revenue at Caswell Inc is growing −4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Caswell Inc (6416)?
Earnings per share at Caswell Inc are growing +22.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Caswell Inc (6416) carry?
The net debt of Caswell Inc is 469M TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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