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NAFCO Co (64E) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NAFCO Co stock €3.48, price €11.05, upside -68.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Consumer Cyclical · DE · Home Japan · ISIN JP3651160008

NC NAFCO Co logo Broad data Oct 27, 2026

NAFCO Co

64E · F

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 69% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Broad data
Quality 54/100
Thin margins · 0.2% net margin (TTM)
Fair value €3.48 · Strongly overvalued (−68.5%)
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −4.7 %/yr in JPY)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 22/100
Price via web search⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€16.93 €9.15 Fair Value €3.48 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €9.15 – €16.93 · fair‑value band €2.68 – €4.96 · the €11.05 price screens above the €3.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.

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Company profile

NAFCO Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of home and furniture retail stores in Japan. It operates through three segments: Materials, DIY, and Gardening Supplies; Livingware; and Furniture and Home Fashion Items.

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The company offers home improvement products, including DIY, gardening, exterior, and pet supplies, car accessories, household goods, interior products, and other items; and furniture and home fashion products, such storage, dining, living room, wedding, study, and small furniture, as well as beds and beddings.

It also provides carpentry tools; hardware; paint; plastering and plumbing supplies; room accessories; work supplies; electrical materials; seasonal and storage items; stationery; daily necessities; cooking appliances; footwear; food; health and beauty; and outdoor goods, as well as floor coverings; curtains; lighting; renovation materials; and flooring.

The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Kitakyushu, Japan.

Stock analysis

NAFCO Co (64E) currently trades at €11.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.48, 68.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €5.53 per share, and 3 of the 14 models we run sit above the €11.05 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.4300, and 11 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €2.68 (bear) to €4.96 (bull), the price of €11.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

NAFCO Co reported revenue of ¥175B in FY2026 versus ¥207B in FY2022, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥223M in FY2026, compounding −59.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €272M Small · P/E ratio 221.0 · EPS (TTM) €0.0500 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% · Operating margin 3.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −69%, 64E screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €2.68 Fair Value €3.48 Bull €4.96
Price €11.05 · Upside -68.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0288 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income €22.68 €20.85 €19.41 73
EPV €5.17 €5.53 €5.83 71
ROIC Compounder €5.17 €5.53 €5.83 69
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.3500 €0.4300 €0.4800 65
EPV €5.17 €5.53 €5.83 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €2.68 €2.90 €3.23 67
DDM Multi-Stage €2.68 €3.23 €3.95 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple €0.8500 €1.13 €1.42 63
P/S Multiple €0.6600 €0.8800 €1.09 58
P/B Multiple €103.20 €137.60 €172.00 55
EV/EBIT €3.67 €5.37 €7.07 65
EV/EBITDA €14.73 €20.11 €25.50 67
EV/Revenue €2.01 €3.48 €4.96 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €3.23 €4.89 €6.11 55
Economic Profit
Residual Income €22.68 €20.85 €19.41 73
ROIC Compounder €5.17 €5.53 €5.83 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €0.6000 €0.8600 €1.11 65

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 31
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 53
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 97
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 96
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 39
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 37
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 90
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−46.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−49.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 1%

64E screens overvalued: fair value 69% below the price. Compare with The Home Depot, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Home Improvement Retail · 32 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −68.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 3.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.9% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Home Improvement Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 221.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.31× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.27× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)4 · sector 13
PAST (return on equity)1 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)59 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Home Improvement Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Mr D.I.Y. Group 5296 1.15 MYR 1.47 MYR +28% vs 64E
Bourrelier Group ALBOU €67.40 €76.34 +13% vs 64E
Home Product Center Public Company HMPRO 6.45 THB 6.32 THB −2% vs 64E
Lowe's Companies, Inc LOW $198.68 $186.20 −6% vs 64E
Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc HVT $29.54 $26.16 −11% vs 64E
The Home Depot, Inc HD $327.73 $236.72 −28% vs 64E
Floor & Decor Holdings FND $48.17 $33.31 −31% vs 64E
Wesfarmers Limited WES A$80.29 A$52.00 −35% vs 64E
Dohome Public Company DOHOME 3.44 THB 1.70 THB −51% vs 64E
Test-Rite International Co 2908 22.05 TWD 4.97 TWD −77% vs 64E

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NAFCO Co · Fair Value
€3.48 −69%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NAFCO Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/64E

Frequently asked questions

Is NAFCO Co (64E) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.48 versus a price of €11.05, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 64E?
Our model-based fair value for NAFCO Co is €3.48 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.05.
What is the quality score of 64E?
NAFCO Co has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NAFCO Co (64E)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.48 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.68, optimistic scenario €4.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NAFCO Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.48, about −69% upside versus a price of €11.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.68, optimistic scenario €4.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NAFCO Co (64E)?
NAFCO Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥176B (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does NAFCO Co pay a dividend?
NAFCO Co currently shows a dividend yield of 2.94% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NAFCO Co (64E)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NAFCO Co it is €3.48 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of €11.05. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NAFCO Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 64E trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.05, fair value €3.48, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 64E?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.48). For NAFCO Co the two are €7.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NAFCO Co worth?
The market values NAFCO Co at about €272M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is €11.05; our models calculate a fair value of €3.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 64E?
Our models span a range for NAFCO Co: cautious scenario €2.68, base €3.48, optimistic €4.96 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price €11.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 64E?
NAFCO Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 221.0 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of NAFCO Co (64E)?
Balance-sheet figures for NAFCO Co (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 0.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 64E from its 52-week high?
NAFCO Co trades at €11.05, about 10% below its 52-week high of €12.25 and 8% above the low of €10.21 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NAFCO Co?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value The Home Depot, Inc, Lowe's Companies, Inc, Wesfarmers Limited, Floor & Decor Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NAFCO Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price €11.05, calculated fair value €3.48 (−69%), Quality Score 54/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 64E calculated?
We run NAFCO Co through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. NAFCO Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NAFCO Co (64E)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €11.05. Our model-based fair value is €3.48, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NAFCO Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€4.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€2.68 to €4.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of NAFCO Co

How large is the market capitalisation of NAFCO Co (64E)?
The market capitalisation of NAFCO Co is €272M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of NAFCO Co (64E)?
Earnings per share at NAFCO Co are €0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 221.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NAFCO Co (64E)?
The dividend yield of NAFCO Co is 2.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NAFCO Co (64E)?
The net margin of NAFCO Co is 0.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NAFCO Co (64E)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NAFCO Co is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NAFCO Co (64E)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NAFCO Co is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NAFCO Co (64E)?
The operating margin of NAFCO Co is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NAFCO Co (64E)?
Revenue at NAFCO Co is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NAFCO Co (64E)?
Earnings per share at NAFCO Co are growing +18.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does NAFCO Co (64E) generate?
The free cash flow of NAFCO Co is −¥3.1B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does NAFCO Co (64E) carry?
The net debt of NAFCO Co is ¥6.2B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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