Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd HK$5.72, price HK$9.18, upside -37.7%, quality 16 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$3.24 – HK$11.40 · fair‑value band HK$4.31 – HK$8.63 · the HK$9.18 price screens above the HK$5.72 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Global New Material International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells pearlescent pigment, functional mica filler, and related products in the People's Republic of China, Europe, the rest of Asia, North America, and internationally.
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Global New Material International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells pearlescent pigment, functional mica filler, and related products in the People's Republic of China, Europe, the rest of Asia, North America, and internationally. The company offers natural mica, synthetic mica industrial grade, highlight series, high purity series, chameleon series, velvet series, jade series, 3D magnetic conductive series, China red series, diamond series, weather resistant series, powder coating series, and cosmetic grade pearlescent pigments; and cosmetic active ingredients, industrial and automotive coatings, new energy materials, and sustainable, green materials. Its products are used in automotive, cosmetics, electronics, new energy, and high-end manufacturing; and synthetic mica used to produce pearlescent pigment products, insulating materials, functional fillers, refractory materials, and nickel-hydrogen batteries. The company also exports its products to approximately 150 countries worldwide. Global New Material International Holdings Limited was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Liuzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616) currently trades at HK$9.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.72, implying the stock looks roughly 60.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 81/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$4.31 (bear) to HK$8.63 (bull), the price of HK$9.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Global New Material International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 2.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 670M CNY in FY2021, a compound +44.5%/yr. Reported net income was −381M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$11.4B (≈ $1.5B) · P/S ratio 3.03 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500 · Net margin −13.1% · Return on equity −6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% · Operating margin −8.5% · Revenue (TTM) 2.9B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −38%, 6616 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$4.31Fair Value HK$5.72Bull HK$8.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0367 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+76.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
34.7% (2020) → 4.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Global New Material International Holdings Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 711 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score16 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−38% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth129% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.46× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.50× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.4× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)19· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Global New Material International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6616
Frequently asked questions
Is Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.72 versus a price of HK$9.18, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6616?
Our model-based fair value for Global New Material International Holdings Ltd is HK$5.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.18.
What is the quality score of 6616?
Global New Material International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 16/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$4.31, optimistic scenario HK$8.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Global New Material International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$5.72, about −38% upside versus a price of HK$9.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$4.31, optimistic scenario HK$8.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
Global New Material International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Global New Material International Holdings Ltd it is HK$5.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$9.18. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Global New Material International Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6616 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$9.18, fair value HK$5.72, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6616?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$9.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$5.72). For Global New Material International Holdings Ltd the two are HK$3.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Global New Material International Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Global New Material International Holdings Ltd at about HK$11.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$9.18; our models calculate a fair value of HK$5.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6616?
Our models span a range for Global New Material International Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$4.31, base HK$5.72, optimistic HK$8.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$9.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
Balance-sheet figures for Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.9%, debt of 1.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 16/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6616 from its 52-week high?
Global New Material International Holdings Ltd trades at HK$9.18, about 16% below its 52-week high of HK$10.96 and 112% above the low of HK$4.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$5.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Global New Material International Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Global New Material International Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$9.18, calculated fair value HK$5.72 (−38%), Quality Score 16/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6616 calculated?
We run Global New Material International Holdings Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$5.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Global New Material International Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$9.18. Our model-based fair value is HK$5.72, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Global New Material International Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$8.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$4.31 to HK$8.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
The market capitalisation of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd is HK$11.4B (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd is 3.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
Earnings per share at Global New Material International Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
The net margin of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd is −13.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
The operating margin of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd is −8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
Revenue at Global New Material International Holdings Ltd is growing +129% versus a year earlier (3y avg +47.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616)?
Earnings per share at Global New Material International Holdings Ltd are growing −43.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616) generate?
The free cash flow of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd is −1.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Global New Material International Holdings Ltd (6616) carry?
The net debt of Global New Material International Holdings Ltd is 4.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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