Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lufax Holding Ltd. HK$9.23, price HK$5.32, upside +73.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
42‑month range HK$4.08 – HK$17.62 · fair‑value band HK$6.07 – HK$14.65 · the HK$5.32 price screens below the HK$9.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Lufax Holding Ltd engages in the retail credit and enablement business to borrowers and institutions in the People's Republic of China. It offers loan products, including general unsecured loans and secured loans, as well as consumer finance loans.
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Lufax Holding Ltd engages in the retail credit and enablement business to borrowers and institutions in the People's Republic of China. It offers loan products, including general unsecured loans and secured loans, as well as consumer finance loans. The company also provides wealth management products, such as asset management plans, bank products, mutual fund products, private investment fund products, trust plans, and others. In addition, it offers technology advisory, internet platform, banking, microfinance, financing guarantee, enterprise management, information consultation, asset management, and investment and financial consulting services. The company serves small and micro business owners, individual entrepreneurs, and individuals. Lufax Holding Ltd was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623) currently trades at HK$5.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.23, implying the stock looks roughly 42.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$36.05 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the HK$5.32 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$27.41, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$6.07 (bear) to HK$14.65 (bull), the price of HK$5.32 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Lufax Holding Ltd. reported revenue of 23.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 61.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −21.8%/yr. Reported net income was −2.1B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$18.9B (≈ $2.4B) · P/S ratio 0.63 · Net margin −9.1% · Return on equity −2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% · Operating margin 59.2% · Revenue (TTM) 30.0B CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −19.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 74%, 6623 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$6.07Fair Value HK$9.23Bull HK$14.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
39.2% (2020) → −7.1% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 331 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+103.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−7.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)59.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−19.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.88× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.23 versus a price of HK$5.32, about +74% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6623?
Our model-based fair value for Lufax Holding Ltd. is HK$9.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.32.
What is the quality score of 6623?
Lufax Holding Ltd. has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$9.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.07, optimistic scenario HK$14.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lufax Holding Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$9.23, about +74% upside versus a price of HK$5.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.07, optimistic scenario HK$14.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
Lufax Holding Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 30.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lufax Holding Ltd. it is HK$9.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$5.32. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lufax Holding Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6623 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$5.32, fair value HK$9.23, a gap of about +74% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6623?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$9.23). For Lufax Holding Ltd. the two are HK$3.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lufax Holding Ltd. worth?
The market values Lufax Holding Ltd. at about HK$18.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.32; our models calculate a fair value of HK$9.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6623?
Our models span a range for Lufax Holding Ltd.: cautious scenario HK$6.07, base HK$9.23, optimistic HK$14.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$5.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lufax Holding Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.1%, debt of 0.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6623 from its 52-week high?
Lufax Holding Ltd. trades at HK$5.32, about 51% below its 52-week high of HK$10.90 and at the low of HK$5.32 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$9.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lufax Holding Ltd.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lufax Holding Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$5.32, calculated fair value HK$9.23 (+74%), Quality Score 51/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6623 calculated?
We run Lufax Holding Ltd. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$9.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lufax Holding Ltd. currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$5.32. Our model-based fair value is HK$9.23, about +74% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lufax Holding Ltd. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$6.07 to HK$14.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Lufax Holding Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
The market capitalisation of Lufax Holding Ltd. is HK$18.9B (≈ $2.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lufax Holding Ltd. is 0.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
The net margin of Lufax Holding Ltd. is −9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lufax Holding Ltd. is −2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lufax Holding Ltd. is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
The operating margin of Lufax Holding Ltd. is 59.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623)?
Revenue at Lufax Holding Ltd. is growing −19.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623) generate?
The free cash flow of Lufax Holding Ltd. is 12.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lufax Holding Ltd. (6623) carry?
The net debt of Lufax Holding Ltd. is 47.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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