E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd HK$2.79, price HK$1.41, upside +97.9%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.7274 – HK$3.92 · fair‑value band HK$2.09 – HK$3.49 · the HK$1.41 price screens below the HK$2.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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E-Star Commercial Management Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides commercial property operational services to property owners or tenants of commercial properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Entrusted Management Service Model; Brand and Management Output Service Model; and Sublease Service Model.
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E-Star Commercial Management Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides commercial property operational services to property owners or tenants of commercial properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Entrusted Management Service Model; Brand and Management Output Service Model; and Sublease Service Model. The company offers shopping centers and streets, and commercial complex; positioning, construction consultancy, and tenant sourcing services, which include market positioning, business planning consultancy, design and construction consultancy, and tenant sourcing; and operational management services comprising formulating operation strategies, conducting marketing and promotional events, tenant and property management, and rent collection. It also provides property leasing services, such as sublease of commercial spaces in the commercial properties managed under the sublease service model to tenants; value-added services, including management of common areas in the shopping centers in which customers can rent for a short period for pop-up shops and promotional settings, as well as management of advertising spaces, such as LED boards and interior and exterior facades of the shopping centers; and leases commercial spaces to tenants. The company operates and manages properties under the COCO Park, COCO City, COCO Garden, iCO, and Top Living brands. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China. E-Star Commercial Management Company Limited is a subsidiary of Go Star Investment Holding Limited.
Stock analysis
E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668) currently trades at HK$1.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.79, implying the stock looks roughly 49.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$2.90 per share, and 12 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$1.41 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.8400, and 4 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.09 (bear) to HK$3.49 (bull), the price of HK$1.41 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd reported revenue of 583M CNY in FY2025 versus 572M CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 143M CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.4B (≈ $182M) · P/E ratio 7.7 · P/S ratio 1.88 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0900 · Dividend yield 8.6% · Net margin 24.5% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 98%, 6668 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.09Fair Value HK$2.79Bull HK$3.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 32%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+98% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)24% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6668
Frequently asked questions
Is E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.79 versus a price of HK$1.41, about +98% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6668?
Our model-based fair value for E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd is HK$2.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.41.
What is the quality score of 6668?
E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.09, optimistic scenario HK$3.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.79, about +98% upside versus a price of HK$1.41 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.09, optimistic scenario HK$3.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 583M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd pay a dividend?
E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6668 use?
Our models discount E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.02, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd grew +5.7 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.26 %: that much free cash flow E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd it is HK$2.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$1.41. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6668 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.41, fair value HK$2.79, a gap of about +98% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6668?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.79). For E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd the two are HK$1.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd worth?
The market values E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd at about HK$1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.41; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6668?
Our models span a range for E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.09, base HK$2.79, optimistic HK$3.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$1.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6668?
E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.79 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
Balance-sheet figures for E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6668 from its 52-week high?
E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd trades at HK$1.41, at its 52-week high of HK$1.41 and 18% above the low of HK$1.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$1.41, calculated fair value HK$2.79 (+98%), Quality Score 72/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6668 calculated?
We run E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd currently trades 98 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$1.41. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.79, about +98% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
The market capitalisation of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd is HK$1.4B (≈ $182M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
The price-to-sales ratio of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd is 1.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
Earnings per share at E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd are HK$0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
The dividend yield of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd is 8.6% (payout 134%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
The net margin of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd is 24.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
The return on equity (ROE) of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
The operating margin of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd is 24.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
Revenue at E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd is growing −9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668)?
Earnings per share at E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd are growing −14.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd (6668) carry?
The net debt of E Star Commercial Management Co Ltd is 169M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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