Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$6.75 – HK$287.60 · fair‑value band HK$21.92 – HK$40.60 · the HK$183.50 price screens above the HK$31.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company produces and sells optical fiber preforms rods, optical fiber, and optical fiber cables in China and internationally.
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Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company produces and sells optical fiber preforms rods, optical fiber, and optical fiber cables in China and internationally. Itoffers cutting edge products; optical fiber preforms, coating, and silicon tetrachloride; communication optical fire; cable products; specialty fibers, optical fiber components and modules, optical assemblies and modules, and optical fiber sensing system; submarine fiber-optic cable; optical transceiver; and coaxial cable, including RF coaxial and leaky coaxial cable, as well as accessories for RF and leaky coaxial cable. The company also provides data center, copper structured, and fiber optic structured cabling solutions. The company serves telecom, data communication, transportation, industrial laser, power grid, submarine communication, consumer, and materials markets. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Wuhan, China.
Stock analysis
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) currently trades at HK$183.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$31.26, implying the stock looks roughly 486.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$20.60 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$183.50 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$5.59, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$21.92 (bear) to HK$40.60 (bull), the price of HK$183.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable reported revenue of 14.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 814M CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$299B (≈ $38.1B) · P/E ratio 170.7 · P/S ratio 9.75 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.51 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −83%, 6869 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$2.09 to HK$34.84). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear HK$21.92Fair Value HK$31.26Bull HK$40.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.8544 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+28.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 301 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)170.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B21.65× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)19.86× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF16.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA92.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$31.26 versus a price of HK$183.50, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6869?
Our model-based fair value for Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is HK$31.26 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$183.50.
What is the quality score of 6869?
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$31.26 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$21.92, optimistic scenario HK$40.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$31.26, about −83% upside versus a price of HK$183.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$21.92, optimistic scenario HK$40.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$15.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable pay a dividend?
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable would have to grow free cash flow by +28.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6869 use?
Our models discount Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable that is +28.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable grew +11.6 % a year. The price currently implies +28.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (+28.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.66 %: that much free cash flow Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable it is HK$31.26 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$183.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 6869 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$183.50, fair value HK$31.26, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6869?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$183.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$31.26). For Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable the two are HK$152.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable worth?
The market values Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable at about HK$299B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$183.50; our models calculate a fair value of HK$31.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6869?
Our models span a range for Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable: cautious scenario HK$21.92, base HK$31.26, optimistic HK$40.60 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$183.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6869?
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 170.7 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$31.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 21.7, P/S 19.9, EV/EBITDA 92.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6869 from its 52-week high?
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable trades at HK$183.50, about 40% below its 52-week high of HK$305.00 and 878% above the low of HK$18.76 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$31.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$183.50, calculated fair value HK$31.26 (−83%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6869 calculated?
We run Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$31.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$40.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$21.92 to HK$40.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) come from?
Earnings per share at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable grew +2.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable
How large is the market capitalisation of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The market capitalisation of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is HK$299B (≈ $38.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 9.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Earnings per share at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable are HK$1.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 170.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The dividend yield of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 0.2% (payout 19.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The net margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The operating margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 23.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Revenue at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is growing +27.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Earnings per share at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable are growing +200% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) carry?
The net debt of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is HK$5.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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