Ciena Corp (CIEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $55.0B · ISIN US1717793095
Ciena Corp
CIEN · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Share price +14.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 1,450% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.16 – $627.00 · fair‑value band $18.30 – $30.50 · the $378.44 price screens above the $24.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Ciena Corp (CIEN) currently trades at $378.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.40, implying the stock looks roughly 93.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ciena Corp generated revenue of $5.6B at a net margin of 7.9%. Revenue grew 39.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. Net debt stands at $490M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.30 (bear case) to $30.50 (bull case); at $378.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -54% fair-value upside, at -94%, CIEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 10 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 2.50 USD per share, which is 10.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($56.67) versus Earnings-Based ($8.56). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
Notify me when CIEN reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ciena Corporation, a network technology company, provides hardware, software, and services for various network operators in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and India. It operates through Networking Platforms, Platform Software and Services, Blue Planet Automation Software and Services, and Global Services segments.
Full company description
Ciena Corporation, a network technology company, provides hardware, software, and services for various network operators in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and India. It operates through Networking Platforms, Platform Software and Services, Blue Planet Automation Software and Services, and Global Services segments. The Networking Platforms segment consists optical networking, routing, and switching products and services. This segment products include the 6500 Packet-Optical Platform, Waveserver modular interconnect system, the 6500 Reconfigurable Line System, and coherent pluggable transceivers; and the 3000 family of service delivery platforms and the 5000 family of service aggregation, as well as the 8100 Coherent Routing platforms and virtualization software. The Platform Software and Services segment offers navigator network control suite; and software subscription services, consulting, network migration and integration, installation and upgrade support services, and technical support solutions. The Blue Planet Automation Software and Services segment inventory management, orchestration, route optimization and analysis, and unified assurance and analytics software; and sells subscription, installation, support, consulting, and design services related to the Blue Planet automation platform. The Global Services segment provides services for advisory and enablement, implementation, and maintenance, support, and learning activities. Ciena Corporation was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hanover, Maryland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ciena Corp reported revenue of $4.8B in FY2025 versus $3.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was $123M in FY2025, compounding −29.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution −1.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CIEN screens 1,450% overvalued. Compare with Cisco Systems, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AI Networking Stocks Are Rallying on Monday. Marvell Up 8%, Credo Up 8%, Ciena Joins the Move
- Will Ciena's Rising Backlog Improve Revenue Visibility Into 2027?
- Lumentum Puts The Insane Opportunity for Companies like Marvell and Ciena Into Focus With One Stunning Quote
Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 308 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $112.15 | $61.53 | -45% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥866.12 | ¥171.09 | -80% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥61.83 | ¥28.65 | -54% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥429.90 | ¥176.99 | -59% |
| Nokia Oyj NOK | $10.21 | $3.78 | -63% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $487.28 | $236.33 | -52% |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 | ¥276.25 | ¥43.67 | -84% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC | $10.06 | $19.89 | +98% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,270 TWD | 1,135 TWD | -50% |
| Ubiquiti Inc UI | $577.76 | $252.79 | -56% |
Compare Ciena Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Technology stocks →
Discover undervalued stocks
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Ciena Corp (CIEN) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of CIEN?
What is the quality score of CIEN?
What is the revenue of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
What is the net profit margin of CIEN?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Watch Ciena Corp in the live analysis
One click puts Ciena Corp on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.