Ciena Corp (CIEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Ciena Corp $48.70, price $360, upside -86.5%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.16 – $627.00 · fair‑value band $36.52 – $60.88 · the $359.60 price screens above the $48.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
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Ciena Corporation, a network technology company, provides hardware, software, and services for various network operators in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and India.
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It operates through Networking Platforms, Platform Software and Services, Blue Planet Automation Software and Services, and Global Services segments. The Networking Platforms segment consists optical networking, routing, and switching products and services.
This segment products include the 6500 Packet-Optical Platform, Waveserver modular interconnect system, the 6500 Reconfigurable Line System, and coherent pluggable transceivers; and the 3000 family of service delivery platforms and the 5000 family of service aggregation, as well as the 8100 Coherent Routing platforms and virtualization software.
The Platform Software and Services segment offers navigator network control suite; and software subscription services, consulting, network migration and integration, installation and upgrade support services, and technical support solutions.
The Blue Planet Automation Software and Services segment inventory management, orchestration, route optimization and analysis, and unified assurance and analytics software; and sells subscription, installation, support, consulting, and design services related to the Blue Planet automation platform.
The Global Services segment provides services for advisory and enablement, implementation, and maintenance, support, and learning activities. Ciena Corporation was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hanover, Maryland.
Stock analysis
Ciena Corp (CIEN) currently trades at $359.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.70, 86.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $56.24 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $359.60 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $8.54, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $36.52 (bear) to $60.88 (bull), the price of $359.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ciena Corp reported revenue of $4.8B in FY2025 versus $3.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was $123M in FY2025, compounding −29.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $52.5B · P/E ratio 80.3 · P/S ratio 2.08 · EPS (TTM) $4.48 · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 22.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% · Operating margin 18.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 119% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −86%, CIEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($8.54 to $107.38). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$36.52Fair Value $48.70Bull$60.88
Price $359.60 · Upside -86.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 11 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.28 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$61.62$107.38$183.1078
Growth DCF$61.77$105.35$176.5276
5Y EBITDA Exit$44.49$73.69$108.7174
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$61.62$107.38$183.1078
Owner Earnings$14.68$27.23$47.9973
5Y Revenue Exit$31.36$47.62$68.0372
5Y EBITDA Exit$44.49$73.69$108.7174
5Y P/E Exit$29.48$43.87$59.0871
10Y Revenue Exit$40.63$58.93$83.7367
10Y EBITDA Exit$49.85$77.64$116.5968
10Y P/E Exit$40.05$56.24$76.5064
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$5.91$23.93$32.5664
Lynch FV$5.98$8.54$11.1061
PEG = 1.0$5.98$8.54$11.1057
EPV$15.61$18.72$21.4474
Multiples
P/E Multiple$18.26$24.35$30.4463
P/S Multiple$11.09$14.79$18.4858
P/B Multiple$11.09$14.79$18.4855
EV/EBIT$36.40$49.55$62.7066
EV/EBITDA$39.90$54.21$68.5367
EV/Revenue$16.90$25.44$33.9953
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$9.62$12.90$19.2554
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$61.77$105.35$176.5276
Rev-Margin DCF$31.36$48.14$69.1372
Economic Profit
Residual Income$14.56$14.57$15.3071
ROIC Compounder$15.61$18.72$24.6172
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$12.46$17.80$23.1567
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.2% vs 11.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+27.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.8% a year for the price and +24.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The main strength lies in expanding participation in AI-driven cloud and hyperscale networks via new deployments while the main weak point is low profitability and modest returns that signal limited durable advantage.
Main risk: Sector competition in communication equipment is likely to compress returns on capital and constrain any improvement in already low profitability metrics
Ciena just landed a deployment with Openreach that puts its WaveLogic 6 1.6Tb/s technology into the UK wholesale network for data center links and subsea traffic. The move shows how AI bandwidth demand is pulling optical suppliers deeper into cloud and hyperscale work, where roughly half of Ciena’s revenue already comes from direct cloud customers. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will these concrete infrastructure wins accelerate growth enough to close the gap, or will they merely meet what is already baked into expectations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 293 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−86.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)10.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)18.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth37.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.56× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)80.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B19.23× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)8.72× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow78.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA51.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.57× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 55
PAST (return on equity)90· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)72· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ciena Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CIEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Ciena Corp (CIEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.70 versus a price of $359.60, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CIEN?
Our model-based fair value for Ciena Corp is $48.70 (as of Oct 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $359.60.
What is the quality score of CIEN?
Ciena Corp has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.70 (as of Oct 12, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $36.52, optimistic scenario $60.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ciena Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.70, about −86% upside versus a price of $359.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $36.52, optimistic scenario $60.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
Ciena Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 12, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ciena Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +37.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Oct 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CIEN use?
Our models discount Ciena Corp at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ciena Corp that is +37.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ciena Corp (CIEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ciena Corp grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +37.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ciena Corp (CIEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ciena Corp (+37.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.27 %: that much free cash flow Ciena Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ciena Corp it is $48.70 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026), against a price of $359.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ciena Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, CIEN trades above its calculated fair value: price $359.60, fair value $48.70, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CIEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($359.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.70). For Ciena Corp the two are $310.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ciena Corp worth?
The market values Ciena Corp at about $52.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 12, 2026). Per share that is $359.60; our models calculate a fair value of $48.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CIEN?
Our models span a range for Ciena Corp: cautious scenario $36.52, base $48.70, optimistic $60.88 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026, price $359.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CIEN?
Ciena Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 80.3 (as of Oct 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $48.70 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 24.7. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 19.2, P/S 8.7, EV/EBITDA 51.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CIEN?
The PEG ratio of Ciena Corp is 0.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 12, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ciena Corp (as of Oct 12, 2026): return on equity 22.4%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CIEN from its 52-week high?
Ciena Corp trades at $359.60, about 43% below its 52-week high of $627.00 and 119% above the low of $164.48 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ciena Corp?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ciena Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 12, 2026: price $359.60, calculated fair value $48.70 (−86%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CIEN calculated?
We run Ciena Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Ciena Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $359.60. Our model-based fair value is $48.70, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ciena Corp right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($60.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Ciena Corp (CIEN) come from?
Earnings per share at Ciena Corp grew +15.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin +3.4 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ciena Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
The market capitalisation of Ciena Corp is $52.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ciena Corp is 2.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
Earnings per share at Ciena Corp are $4.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 80.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
The net margin of Ciena Corp is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ciena Corp is 22.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ciena Corp is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
The operating margin of Ciena Corp is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
Revenue at Ciena Corp is growing +37.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ciena Corp (CIEN)?
Earnings per share at Ciena Corp are growing +423% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ciena Corp (CIEN) carry?
The net debt of Ciena Corp is $490M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 12, 2026