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Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Railway Signal Communication Ltd ¥3.88, price ¥4.66, upside -16.7%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE100003MP2

RS Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Railway Signal Communication Ltd

688009 · SHG

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value ¥3.88 · Overvalued (−17%)
!Quality 53/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +6.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·3.78% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 11 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥7.13 ¥3.85 Fair Value ¥3.88 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.85 – ¥7.13 · fair‑value band ¥2.85 – ¥4.35 · the ¥4.66 price screens above the ¥3.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail transportation control system solutions in China and internationally. It operates through Rail Transportation Control System, General Engineering Contracting, and Others segments.

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China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail transportation control system solutions in China and internationally. It operates through Rail Transportation Control System, General Engineering Contracting, and Others segments. The company offers design and integration, and system integration services for rail transportation control system-related products; and design and consulting services for rail transportation projects. It also produces and sells signal system products, communication information system products, infrastructure equipment and information systems, and other related products. In addition, the company offers construction, installation, testing, operation, and maintenance services for rail transportation control projects; and services relating to municipal engineering projects and other construction projects. Further, it engages in the system delivery service, investment management, and technical exchange and trade activities, as well as provision of project management activities. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Railway Signal & Communication (Group) Corporation Limited.

Stock analysis

Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009) currently trades at ¥4.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.88, implying the stock looks roughly 20.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥7.14 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥4.66 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.11, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥2.85 (bear) to ¥4.35 (bull), the price of ¥4.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Railway Signal Communication Ltd reported revenue of 34.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 38.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 50.2B CNY (≈ $7.5B) · P/E ratio 14.5 · P/S ratio 1.53 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3400 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −17%, 688009 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥2.85 Fair Value ¥3.88 Bull ¥4.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1200 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings ¥4.86 ¥6.26 ¥8.16 77
Residual Income ¥3.60 ¥3.82 ¥4.16 75
EPV ¥4.40 ¥4.87 ¥5.29 72
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥4.86 ¥6.26 ¥8.16 77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.31 ¥5.22 ¥6.68 63
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.8600 ¥1.22 ¥1.59 55
EPV ¥4.40 ¥4.87 ¥5.29 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.47 ¥2.34 ¥3.29 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.47 ¥2.11 ¥2.80 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥5.35 ¥7.14 ¥8.92 61
P/S Multiple ¥4.33 ¥5.78 ¥7.22 56
P/B Multiple ¥4.33 ¥5.78 ¥7.22 53
EV/EBIT ¥7.04 ¥8.92 ¥10.81 65
EV/EBITDA ¥6.40 ¥8.07 ¥9.74 66
EV/Revenue ¥5.42 ¥7.15 ¥8.88 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.20 ¥2.95 ¥4.40 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥3.60 ¥3.82 ¥4.16 75
ROIC Compounder ¥4.40 ¥5.01 ¥5.70 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥4.01 ¥5.73 ¥7.44 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 3
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0% vs 1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

688009 screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 114 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside −17% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.06× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.46× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.6× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)11 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)76 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $274.41 $153.60 −44%
CSX Corporation CSX $46.59 $12.85 −72%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $87.99 $37.86 −57%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $314.00 $133.01 −58%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $119.52 $98.68 −17%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $289.71 $289.60 +0%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.71 ¥5.65 +20%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.71 ¥5.48 +16%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 115,900 KRW 127,490 KRW +10%

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Railway Signal Communication Ltd · Fair Value
¥3.88 −20%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Railway Signal Communication Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688009

Frequently asked questions

Is Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.88 versus a price of ¥4.66, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688009?
Our model-based fair value for Railway Signal Communication Ltd is ¥3.88 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.66.
What is the quality score of 688009?
Railway Signal Communication Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.88 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.85, optimistic scenario ¥4.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Railway Signal Communication Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.88, about −17% upside versus a price of ¥4.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.85, optimistic scenario ¥4.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
Railway Signal Communication Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 34.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Railway Signal Communication Ltd pay a dividend?
Railway Signal Communication Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Railway Signal Communication Ltd it is ¥3.88 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥4.66. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Railway Signal Communication Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 688009 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.66, fair value ¥3.88, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688009?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.88). For Railway Signal Communication Ltd the two are ¥0.7800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Railway Signal Communication Ltd worth?
The market values Railway Signal Communication Ltd at about 50.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.66; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688009?
Our models span a range for Railway Signal Communication Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.85, base ¥3.88, optimistic ¥4.35 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥4.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688009?
Railway Signal Communication Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
Balance-sheet figures for Railway Signal Communication Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688009 from its 52-week high?
Railway Signal Communication Ltd trades at ¥4.66, about 27% below its 52-week high of ¥6.36 and 1% above the low of ¥4.62 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Railway Signal Communication Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Railway Signal Communication Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥4.66, calculated fair value ¥3.88 (−17%), Quality Score 53/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688009 calculated?
We run Railway Signal Communication Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Railway Signal Communication Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥4.66. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.88, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Railway Signal Communication Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009) come from?
Earnings per share at Railway Signal Communication Ltd grew +0.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.7 %, EBIT margin +7.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Railway Signal Communication Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
The market capitalisation of Railway Signal Communication Ltd is 50.2B CNY (≈ $7.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Railway Signal Communication Ltd is 1.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
Earnings per share at Railway Signal Communication Ltd are ¥0.3400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
The dividend yield of Railway Signal Communication Ltd is 3.8% (payout 51.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
The net margin of Railway Signal Communication Ltd is 10.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Railway Signal Communication Ltd is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Railway Signal Communication Ltd is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
The operating margin of Railway Signal Communication Ltd is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009)?
Revenue at Railway Signal Communication Ltd is growing −3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009) generate?
The free cash flow of Railway Signal Communication Ltd is −1.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Railway Signal Communication Ltd (688009) hold?
Railway Signal Communication Ltd holds more cash than debt, 10.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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