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Cathay Biotech Inc (688065) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Cathay Biotech Inc ¥11.96, price ¥39.32, upside -69.6%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · CN · ISIN CNE100004447

CB Some data Sep 24, 2026

Cathay Biotech Inc

688065 · SHG

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥11.96 · Strongly overvalued (−70%)
!Quality 34/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +17.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.14% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Moderate moat 47/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 11 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 23 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥131.61 ¥32.20 Fair Value ¥11.96 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥32.20 – ¥131.61 · fair‑value band ¥8.50 – ¥14.43 · the ¥39.32 price screens above the ¥11.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Cathay Biotech Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of bio-based materials in China and internationally. The company offers biological long-chain diacids, including sebacic acid and octadecanedioic acid; bio-based polyamides; and bio-based pentamethylene diamine under the TERRYL and ECOPENT brands.

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Cathay Biotech Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of bio-based materials in China and internationally. The company offers biological long-chain diacids, including sebacic acid and octadecanedioic acid; bio-based polyamides; and bio-based pentamethylene diamine under the TERRYL and ECOPENT brands. It also provides digital solutions for electrification, automation, and digitization for biological manufacturing. The company's products are used in textiles, pharmaceuticals, perfumes, automobiles, electronic appliances, consumer goods, engineering materials, and other industries. It exports its products. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

Cathay Biotech Inc (688065) currently trades at ¥39.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.96, implying the stock looks roughly 228.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of ¥20.16 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥39.32 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥6.57, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥8.50 (bear) to ¥14.43 (bull), the price of ¥39.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Cathay Biotech Inc reported revenue of 3.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was 566M CNY in FY2025, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 35.3B CNY (≈ $5.3B) · P/E ratio 48.0 · P/S ratio 8.23 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8200 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 17.2% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −70%, 688065 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥8.50 Fair Value ¥11.96 Bull ¥14.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2707 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings ¥15.10 ¥17.20 ¥20.80 78
Residual Income ¥20.87 ¥20.16 ¥16.45 76
EPV ¥19.74 ¥20.87 ¥21.85 74
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥15.10 ¥17.20 ¥20.80 78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥5.33 ¥26.47 ¥36.52 64
Lynch FV ¥7.14 ¥10.20 ¥13.27 61
PEG = 1.0 ¥7.14 ¥10.20 ¥13.27 57
EPV ¥19.74 ¥20.87 ¥21.85 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.81 ¥7.60 ¥11.50 67
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.81 ¥6.57 ¥8.02 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥10.00 ¥13.33 ¥16.67 63
P/S Multiple ¥5.14 ¥6.85 ¥8.57 58
P/B Multiple ¥10.00 ¥13.33 ¥16.67 55
EV/EBIT ¥21.81 ¥24.89 ¥27.97 66
EV/EBITDA ¥22.45 ¥25.74 ¥29.04 67
EV/Revenue ¥17.36 ¥19.42 ¥21.47 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥14.71 ¥19.71 ¥29.42 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥20.87 ¥20.16 ¥16.45 76
ROIC Compounder ¥19.74 ¥20.87 ¥21.85 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥9.85 ¥14.07 ¥18.29 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 16
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 16
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 13
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3% vs 8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 19%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

688065 screens 229% overvalued. Compare with BASF SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 350 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −70% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 48.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.66× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 10.40× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 29.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)64 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)11 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 ¥16.54 ¥43.28 +162%

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Cathay Biotech Inc · Fair Value
¥11.96 −229%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cathay Biotech Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688065

Frequently asked questions

Is Cathay Biotech Inc (688065) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.96 versus a price of ¥39.32, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688065?
Our model-based fair value for Cathay Biotech Inc is ¥11.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥39.32.
What is the quality score of 688065?
Cathay Biotech Inc has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.50, optimistic scenario ¥14.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cathay Biotech Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.96, about −70% upside versus a price of ¥39.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥8.50, optimistic scenario ¥14.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
Cathay Biotech Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Cathay Biotech Inc pay a dividend?
Cathay Biotech Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cathay Biotech Inc it is ¥11.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥39.32. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cathay Biotech Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 688065 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥39.32, fair value ¥11.96, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688065?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥39.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.96). For Cathay Biotech Inc the two are ¥27.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cathay Biotech Inc worth?
The market values Cathay Biotech Inc at about 35.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥39.32; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688065?
Our models span a range for Cathay Biotech Inc: cautious scenario ¥8.50, base ¥11.96, optimistic ¥14.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥39.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688065?
Cathay Biotech Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥11.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 10.4, EV/EBITDA 29.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cathay Biotech Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688065 from its 52-week high?
Cathay Biotech Inc trades at ¥39.32, about 36% below its 52-week high of ¥61.61 and 6% above the low of ¥37.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cathay Biotech Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cathay Biotech Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥39.32, calculated fair value ¥11.96 (−70%), Quality Score 34/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688065 calculated?
We run Cathay Biotech Inc through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥11.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cathay Biotech Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥39.32. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.96, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cathay Biotech Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥14.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Key figures of Cathay Biotech Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
The market capitalisation of Cathay Biotech Inc is 35.3B CNY (≈ $5.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cathay Biotech Inc is 8.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
Earnings per share at Cathay Biotech Inc are ¥0.8200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
The dividend yield of Cathay Biotech Inc is 1.1% (payout 54.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
The net margin of Cathay Biotech Inc is 17.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cathay Biotech Inc is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cathay Biotech Inc is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
The operating margin of Cathay Biotech Inc is 24.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cathay Biotech Inc (688065)?
Revenue at Cathay Biotech Inc is growing +12.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Cathay Biotech Inc (688065) generate?
The free cash flow of Cathay Biotech Inc is −339M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Cathay Biotech Inc (688065) hold?
Cathay Biotech Inc holds more cash than debt, 3.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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