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Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Shanghai Medicilon Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · CN · ISIN CNE100003NQ8

SM Some data Sep 13, 2026

Shanghai Medicilon Inc

688202 · SHG

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥46.82 · Strongly overvalued (−48%)
!Quality 48/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +11.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -10.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (8/12)
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 2 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥394.88 ¥23.83 Fair Value ¥46.82 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥23.83 – ¥394.88 · fair‑value band ¥32.13 – ¥67.14 · the ¥89.34 price screens above the ¥46.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Shanghai Medicilon Inc., a contract research organization, provides drug discovery and development services to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in China and internationally. The company operates in Drug Discovery and Pharmaceutical Research, and Preclinical Research segments.

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Shanghai Medicilon Inc., a contract research organization, provides drug discovery and development services to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in China and internationally. The company operates in Drug Discovery and Pharmaceutical Research, and Preclinical Research segments. It offers medicinal and analytical chemistry; process development; custom and zoom in synthesis; structural, in vitro, and computational biology; protein expression and purification; protein crystallization; and recombinant kinase preparation services, as well as protein target validation, compound activity screening and optimization, raw material and preparation process research, and quality standards and stability research services. The company also provides process route screening, API production process optimization, drug process research and application, pharmacology services, drug safety evaluation, biological analysis, IND filing, and TCM preclinical trial service solutions, such as pharmaceutical research, pharmacodynamics, pharmacokinetics, and toxicology. In addition, it offers lipid synthesis, liposome preparation, prescription screening, process optimization and development, quality research, safety evaluation, bioanalysis, registration and declaration, etc.; pre-formulation research, drug analysis, drug stability research, and formulation development; and cytokine and biomarker testing, bioanalysis, and flow cytometry service, as well as engages in the research and development of new drugs. Further, the company is involved in the molecular drug development business. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202) currently trades at ¥89.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥46.82, implying the stock looks roughly 90.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥9.65 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the ¥89.34 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥6.96, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥32.13 (bear) to ¥67.14 (bull), the price of ¥89.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Shanghai Medicilon Inc reported revenue of 1.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was −168M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 14.2B CNY (≈ $2.1B) · P/S ratio 5.58 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.04 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −14.4% · Return on equity −6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin 4.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades near its 52-week high and 178% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −48%, 688202 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.8900 to ¥9.65). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥32.13 Fair Value ¥46.82 Bull ¥67.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥5.65 ¥9.10 ¥15.46 76
Growth DCF ¥5.59 ¥8.63 ¥14.01 75
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥3.76 ¥4.75 ¥5.95 74
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥5.65 ¥9.10 ¥15.46 76
5Y Revenue Exit ¥4.81 ¥7.02 ¥10.07 70
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥3.76 ¥4.75 ¥5.95 74
10Y Revenue Exit ¥4.97 ¥7.21 ¥10.79 64
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥4.35 ¥5.51 ¥7.19 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.5100 ¥1.05 ¥1.67 64
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.5100 ¥0.8900 ¥1.11 64
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥2.97 ¥3.30 ¥3.64 67
EV/Revenue ¥4.43 ¥5.48 ¥6.52 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥7.20 ¥9.65 ¥14.40 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥5.59 ¥8.63 ¥14.01 75
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.81 ¥6.96 ¥9.86 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73

Profitability 8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 83
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 91
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 78
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 41
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
22.3% (2020) → −8.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+68.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

688202 screens 91% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 645 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −11% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 37% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.09× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.67× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 58.4× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)2 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $515.44 $566.98 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $781.49 $1,241 +59%
argenx SE ARGX €853.80 €752.12 −12%
BeOne Medicines AG 688235 ¥247.30 ¥124.62 −50%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,415,000 KRW 1,556,500 KRW +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $248.68 $211.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.61 $24.22 −59%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 178,200 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $96.73 $63.31 −35%
Incyte Corporation INCY $121.47 $204.93 +69%

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Shanghai Medicilon Inc · Fair Value
¥46.82 −91%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Medicilon Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688202

Frequently asked questions

Is Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥46.82 versus a price of ¥89.34, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688202?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Medicilon Inc is ¥46.82 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥89.34.
What is the quality score of 688202?
Shanghai Medicilon Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥46.82 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥32.13, optimistic scenario ¥67.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Medicilon Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥46.82, about −48% upside versus a price of ¥89.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥32.13, optimistic scenario ¥67.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
Shanghai Medicilon Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Shanghai Medicilon Inc pay a dividend?
Shanghai Medicilon Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanghai Medicilon Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +68.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688202 use?
Our models discount Shanghai Medicilon Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanghai Medicilon Inc that is +68.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shanghai Medicilon Inc grew +11.8 % a year. The price currently implies +68.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanghai Medicilon Inc (+68.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.30 %: that much free cash flow Shanghai Medicilon Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Medicilon Inc it is ¥46.82 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥89.34. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Medicilon Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 688202 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥89.34, fair value ¥46.82, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688202?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥89.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥46.82). For Shanghai Medicilon Inc the two are ¥42.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Medicilon Inc worth?
The market values Shanghai Medicilon Inc at about 14.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥89.34; our models calculate a fair value of ¥46.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688202?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Medicilon Inc: cautious scenario ¥32.13, base ¥46.82, optimistic ¥67.14 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥89.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Medicilon Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −6.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688202 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Medicilon Inc trades at ¥89.34, about 5% below its 52-week high of ¥84.70 and 178% above the low of ¥32.15 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥46.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Medicilon Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, BeOne Medicines AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Medicilon Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥89.34, calculated fair value ¥46.82 (−48%), Quality Score 48/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688202 calculated?
We run Shanghai Medicilon Inc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥46.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Medicilon Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Medicilon Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥67.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥32.13 to ¥67.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Shanghai Medicilon Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Medicilon Inc is 14.2B CNY (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Medicilon Inc is 5.58 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Medicilon Inc are ¥−1.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Medicilon Inc is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
The net margin of Shanghai Medicilon Inc is −14.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Medicilon Inc is −6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Medicilon Inc is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Medicilon Inc is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
Revenue at Shanghai Medicilon Inc is growing +36.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Medicilon Inc are growing −25.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202) carry?
The net debt of Shanghai Medicilon Inc is 52.7M CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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