China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Aluminum Cans Holdings HK$0.28, price HK$0.72, upside -60.8%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch China Aluminum Cans Holdings for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3088 – HK$0.9902 · fair‑value band HK$0.2000 – HK$0.3700 · the HK$0.7150 price screens above the HK$0.2800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow China Aluminum Cans in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether China Aluminum Cans is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
China Aluminum Cans Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, trades, and sells monobloc aluminum aerosol cans in Mainland China, Africa, the United States, and Asia.
Show more
China Aluminum Cans Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, trades, and sells monobloc aluminum aerosol cans in Mainland China, Africa, the United States, and Asia. It offers aluminum aerosol cans for packaging of fast-moving personal care products, such as sanitizer products, body deodorants, hair styling products, and shaving creams; and pharmaceutical products, including pain relieving spray, antiseptic sprays, and spray dressings. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Zhongshan, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898) currently trades at HK$0.7150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2800, implying the stock looks roughly 155.4% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.4100 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.7150 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.0300, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2000 (bear) to HK$0.3700 (bull), the price of HK$0.7150 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
China Aluminum Cans Holdings reported revenue of HK$233M in FY2025 versus HK$209M in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$19.0M in FY2025, compounding +1.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$845M (≈ $108M) · P/E ratio 37.5 · P/S ratio 3.06 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −61%, 6898 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.2000Fair Value HK$0.2800Bull HK$0.3700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0044 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −10.3% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs −18%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 12.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.7% a year for the price.
Compare China Aluminum Cans Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−61% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)37.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.22× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.63× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF2.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA24.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)34· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2800 versus a price of HK$0.7150, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6898?
Our model-based fair value for China Aluminum Cans Holdings is HK$0.2800 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.7150.
What is the quality score of 6898?
China Aluminum Cans Holdings has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2800 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2000, optimistic scenario HK$0.3700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Aluminum Cans Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2800, about −61% upside versus a price of HK$0.7150 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2000, optimistic scenario HK$0.3700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
China Aluminum Cans Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$233M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Aluminum Cans Holdings pay a dividend?
China Aluminum Cans Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Aluminum Cans Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6898 use?
Our models discount China Aluminum Cans Holdings at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Aluminum Cans Holdings that is +14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Aluminum Cans Holdings grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies +14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Aluminum Cans Holdings (+14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.85 %: that much free cash flow China Aluminum Cans Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Aluminum Cans Holdings it is HK$0.2800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.7150. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Aluminum Cans Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6898 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.7150, fair value HK$0.2800, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6898?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.7150); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2800). For China Aluminum Cans Holdings the two are HK$0.4350 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Aluminum Cans Holdings worth?
The market values China Aluminum Cans Holdings at about HK$845M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.7150; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6898?
Our models span a range for China Aluminum Cans Holdings: cautious scenario HK$0.2000, base HK$0.2800, optimistic HK$0.3700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.7150). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6898?
China Aluminum Cans Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.2800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.2, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 24.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Aluminum Cans Holdings (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6898 from its 52-week high?
China Aluminum Cans Holdings trades at HK$0.7150, about 26% below its 52-week high of HK$0.9600 and 14% above the low of HK$0.6282 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Aluminum Cans Holdings?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Aluminum Cans Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.7150, calculated fair value HK$0.2800 (−61%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6898 calculated?
We run China Aluminum Cans Holdings through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. China Aluminum Cans Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$0.7150. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2800, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Aluminum Cans Holdings right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2000 to HK$0.3700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898) come from?
Earnings per share at China Aluminum Cans Holdings grew −19.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −15.7 %, EBIT margin −5.8 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Aluminum Cans Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
The market capitalisation of China Aluminum Cans Holdings is HK$845M (≈ $108M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Aluminum Cans Holdings is 3.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
Earnings per share at China Aluminum Cans Holdings are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
The dividend yield of China Aluminum Cans Holdings is 0.6% (payout 40.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
The net margin of China Aluminum Cans Holdings is 8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Aluminum Cans Holdings is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Aluminum Cans Holdings is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
The operating margin of China Aluminum Cans Holdings is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
Revenue at China Aluminum Cans Holdings is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
Earnings per share at China Aluminum Cans Holdings are growing +91.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898) carry?
The net debt of China Aluminum Cans Holdings is HK$79.9M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch China Aluminum Cans Holdings in the live analysis
One click puts China Aluminum Cans Holdings on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
