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China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$708M

CA China Aluminum Cans Holdings 6898 · HK
PriceHK$0.7150
Fair ValueHK$0.3400
Upside-52.5%
Quality70/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 8.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.53% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Narrow moat 33/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.2600 – HK$0.4300 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price −17.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 52% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.4300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.9902 HK$0.3088 Fair Value HK$0.3400 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3088 – HK$0.9902 · fair‑value band HK$0.2600 – HK$0.4300 · the HK$0.7150 price screens above the HK$0.3400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

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Analysis

China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898) currently trades at HK$0.7150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3400, implying the stock looks roughly 52.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Aluminum Cans Holdings generated revenue of HK$233M at a net margin of 8.2%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at HK$79.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2600 (bear case) to HK$0.4300 (bull case); at HK$0.7150, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -52%, 6898 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.4200 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6700 80
Residual Income HK$0.1200 HK$0.1500 HK$0.3800 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2900 HK$0.3700 HK$0.4800 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.4100 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6900 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.3600 HK$0.4500 HK$0.6000 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2900 HK$0.3600 HK$0.4700 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.3400 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5800 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.3300 HK$0.4300 HK$0.5500 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.3400 HK$0.4000 HK$0.4600 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.3700 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5300 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.3600 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5100 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1400 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2400 54
EPV HK$0.1600 HK$0.1700 HK$0.1800 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0300 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0400 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0300 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0500 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.2600 HK$0.3400 HK$0.4300 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.2600 HK$0.3400 HK$0.4300 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.2600 HK$0.3400 HK$0.4300 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.2400 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3700 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.3200 HK$0.4100 HK$0.5000 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.2200 HK$0.2900 HK$0.3600 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.4200 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6700 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2900 HK$0.3700 HK$0.4800 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.1200 HK$0.1500 HK$0.3800 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1600 HK$0.1700 HK$0.1900 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.1800 HK$0.2600 HK$0.3400 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.4400) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$233M
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.7%
Net margin 8.2%
Return on equity 7.7%
Free cash flow HK$41.0M FY2025
P/E ratio 37.5
More key figures
Operating margin 3.2%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100
Dividend yield 0.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +91.8%
Net debt HK$79.9M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 48
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Aluminum Cans Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, trades, and sells monobloc aluminum aerosol cans in Mainland China, Africa, the United States, and Asia.

Full company description

China Aluminum Cans Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, trades, and sells monobloc aluminum aerosol cans in Mainland China, Africa, the United States, and Asia. It offers aluminum aerosol cans for packaging of fast-moving personal care products, such as sanitizer products, body deodorants, hair styling products, and shaving creams; and pharmaceutical products, including pain relieving spray, antiseptic sprays, and spray dressings. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Zhongshan, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Aluminum Cans Holdings reported revenue of HK$233M in FY2025 versus HK$209M in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$19.0M in FY2025, compounding +1.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 68/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$233M
Latest YoY
+2.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Avg. growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.1%
Revenue +2.8%/yr
FY21 HK$209M
FY22 HK$211M
FY23 HK$236M
FY24 HK$228M
FY25 HK$233M
Net income +1.3%/yr
FY21 HK$18.1M
FY22 HK$20.5M
FY23 HK$21.5M
FY24 HK$18.4M
FY25 HK$19.0M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −19.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share −15.7 pp

of which total revenue −9.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −6.7 pp

EBIT margin −5.8 pp
Tax rate −0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.8 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

6898 screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

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China Aluminum Cans Holdings · Fair Value
HK$0.3400 −52%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Aluminum Cans Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6898

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −52% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 37.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 6.05× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.04× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 20.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 9
FUTURE 34 · sector 0
PAST 31 · sector 21
HEALTH 100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 11 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3400 versus a price of HK$0.7150, about −52% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6898?
Our model-based fair value for China Aluminum Cans Holdings is HK$0.3400 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.7150.
What is the quality score of 6898?
China Aluminum Cans Holdings has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Aluminum Cans Holdings (6898)?
China Aluminum Cans Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$233M (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 6898?
The net profit margin of China Aluminum Cans Holdings is about 8.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Aluminum Cans Holdings pay a dividend?
China Aluminum Cans Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.53% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 6, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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