JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. HK$21.47, price HK$12.63, upside +70.0%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range HK$10.69 – HK$16.25 · fair‑value band HK$13.03 – HK$33.74 · the HK$12.63 price screens below the HK$21.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 28, 2026.
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JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. provides supply chain-based technology and services in the People's Republic of China. It engages in the provision of technology; marketing services; sale and procurement of industrial products, as well as cross-border industrial supply chain technology and services, and e-commerce marketplaces.
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JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. provides supply chain-based technology and services in the People's Republic of China. It engages in the provision of technology; marketing services; sale and procurement of industrial products, as well as cross-border industrial supply chain technology and services, and e-commerce marketplaces. It is also involved in the online retail of industrial products; and provides technical, advertising, and information services. The company was formerly known as JD Industrial Technology Inc. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of JD Industrial Technology Limited.
Stock analysis
JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618) currently trades at HK$12.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$21.47, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$25.42 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$12.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.23, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$13.03 (bear) to HK$33.74 (bull), the price of HK$12.63 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. reported revenue of 24.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 14.1B CNY in FY2022, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 2.3B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$33.9B (≈ $4.3B) · P/E ratio 28.6 · P/S ratio 2.76 · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 39.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% · Operating margin 4.1% · Revenue (TTM) 26.8B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 70%, 7618 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$13.03Fair Value HK$21.47Bull HK$33.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.0% (2022) → 10.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.4% a year for the price and +17.4% for the forecasts.
Compare JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 99 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+62.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)39.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27.4% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/7618
Frequently asked questions
Is JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$21.47 versus a price of HK$12.63, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 7618?
Our model-based fair value for JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. is HK$21.47 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$12.63.
What is the quality score of 7618?
JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$21.47 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$13.03, optimistic scenario HK$33.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$21.47, about +70% upside versus a price of HK$12.63 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$13.03, optimistic scenario HK$33.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 26.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -3.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +19.2 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 7618 use?
Our models discount JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. that is -3.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. grew +19.2 % a year. The price currently implies -3.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (-3.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.17 %: that much free cash flow JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. it is HK$21.47 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of HK$12.63. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 7618 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$12.63, fair value HK$21.47, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 7618?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$12.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$21.47). For JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. the two are HK$8.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. worth?
The market values JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. at about HK$33.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is HK$12.63; our models calculate a fair value of HK$21.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 7618?
Our models span a range for JINGDONG Industrials, Inc.: cautious scenario HK$13.03, base HK$21.47, optimistic HK$33.74 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price HK$12.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 7618?
JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.6 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$21.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 24.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
Balance-sheet figures for JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 39.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to JINGDONG Industrials, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price HK$12.63, calculated fair value HK$21.47 (+70%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 7618 calculated?
We run JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$21.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$12.63. Our model-based fair value is HK$21.47, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$13.03). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$13.03 to HK$33.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
The market capitalisation of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. is HK$33.9B (≈ $4.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
The price-to-sales ratio of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. is 2.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
The net margin of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. is 9.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
The return on equity (ROE) of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. is 39.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. is 6.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
The operating margin of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
Revenue at JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. is growing +27.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618)?
Earnings per share at JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. are growing +25.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. (7618) carry?
The net debt of JINGDONG Industrials, Inc. is 2.0B CNY (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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