China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd HK$0.21, price HK$0.17, upside +24.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1600 – HK$1.04 · fair‑value band HK$0.1919 – HK$0.2110 · the HK$0.1700 price screens below the HK$0.2110 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow China Ground Source Energy Industry Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether China Ground Source Energy Industry Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
CHYY Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, development, and promotion of geothermal energy as alternative energy for building's heating applications in the People's Republic of China.
Show more
CHYY Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, development, and promotion of geothermal energy as alternative energy for building's heating applications in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through four segments: Shallow Geothermal Energy, Air Conditioning/Shallow Geothermal Heat Pump, Property Investment and Development, and Securities Investment and Trading. The company is also involved in the planning and design, supply of renewable energy, intelligent manufacturing, engineering construction, and operation and maintenance; trading of air conditioning/shallow geothermal heat pump products; investment in properties; and trading securities and other types of investments. In addition, it provides sinking wells; property management; technical support services; and installs energy systems, as well as produces and sells geothermal energy systems. The company was formerly known as China Geothermal Industry Development Group Limited and changed its name to CHYY Development Group Limited in August 2022. CHYY Development Group Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128) currently trades at HK$0.1700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2110, implying the stock looks roughly 19.4% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$0.0400 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$0.1700 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at HK$0.0300, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1919 (bear) to HK$0.2110 (bull), the price of HK$0.1700 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$47.8M in FY2025 versus HK$177M in FY2021, a compound −27.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$7.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$121M (≈ $15.4M) · P/S ratio 2.53 · Net margin 14.9% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.2% · Operating margin −56.7% · Revenue (TTM) HK$47.8M · Revenue growth (YoY) −59.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 24%, 8128 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1919Fair Value HK$0.2110Bull HK$0.2110
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−31.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −17.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−39% → −17%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 16.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+75.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +72.1% a year for the price.
Compare China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 802 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−87.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Return on assets−1.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)14.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−56.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−59.7% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8128
Frequently asked questions
Is China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2110 versus a price of HK$0.1700, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8128?
Our model-based fair value for China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd is HK$0.2110 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1700.
What is the quality score of 8128?
China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2110 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1919, optimistic scenario HK$0.2110. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2110, about +24% upside versus a price of HK$0.1700 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1919, optimistic scenario HK$0.2110. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$47.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +75.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -27.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8128 use?
Our models discount China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd that is +75.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd grew -27.0 % a year. The price currently implies +75.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (+75.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.22 %: that much free cash flow China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd it is HK$0.2110 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1700. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8128 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1700, fair value HK$0.2110, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8128?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2110). For China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0410 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd at about HK$121M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1700; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2110 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8128?
Our models span a range for China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1919, base HK$0.2110, optimistic HK$0.2110 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.1700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8128 from its 52-week high?
China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd trades at HK$0.1700, about 60% below its 52-week high of HK$0.4200 and 6% above the low of HK$0.1600 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2110 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.1700, calculated fair value HK$0.2110 (+24%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8128 calculated?
We run China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2110, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.1700. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2110, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.1919). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band (HK$0.1919 to HK$0.2110), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
The market capitalisation of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd is HK$121M (≈ $15.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd is 2.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
The net margin of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd is 14.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd is −4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
The operating margin of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd is −56.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
Revenue at China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd is growing −59.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128)?
Earnings per share at China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd are growing −70.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd (8128) carry?
The net debt of China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd is HK$13.9M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts China Ground Source Energy Industry Group Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
