Phison Electronics (8299) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Phison Electronics stock TWD 295, price TWD 1,560, that is 81.1% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 220.55 TWD – 2,859 TWD · fair‑value band 247.50 TWD – 391.68 TWD · the 1,560 TWD price screens above the 294.82 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Phison Electronics Corp., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells flash memory controllers and peripheral system applications in Asia, the United States, Europe, Australia, and internationally.
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The company offers solid-state drives (SSDs); external SSDs with thunderbolt or USB connect; flash memory cards; USB flash drives; SSD controller for desktop gaming, laptop PC, desktop workstation, and storage; and eMMC, UFS, and other turnkey solutions.
It also provides integrated circuits and systems, and electronics hardware and software and rendering of related services; and electronic components.
In addition, the company engages in investment and trading activities; researches, designs, develops, manufactures, imports, exports, and sells storage devices and electronic components; and provides software development and technical support services.
It serves original equipment manufacturers, NAND product manufacturers, consumer, retail, system integrators, computing, industrial, and automotive industries. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Jhunan Township, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Phison Electronics (8299) currently trades at 1,560 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 294.82 TWD, 81% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 797.30 TWD per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the 1,560 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 193.62 TWD, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 247.50 TWD (bear) to 391.68 TWD (bull), the price of 1,560 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Phison Electronics reported revenue of 72.7B TWD in FY2025 versus 62.6B TWD in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was 8.7B TWD in FY2025, compounding +1.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 354B TWD (≈ $10.7B) Large · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 2.37 · EPS (TTM) 208.07 TWD · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 32.2% · Return on equity 64.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 86 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −81%, 8299 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear247.50 TWDFair Value 294.82 TWDBull391.68 TWD
Price 1,560 TWD · Downside -81.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (111.32 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.9% vs 7.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 12%
2025 sits 62% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The main strength is the quick move into AI solutions accounting for nearly two fifths of revenue, while the main weak point remains the heavy R&D and operating spend that could limit margin improvements.
Main risk: Integrated producers such as Samsung and SK Hynix that make both NAND flash and controllers could offer bundled solutions or pursue greater self-sufficiency, squeezing Phison's controller and module margins or displacing its designs with customers.
Phison has shifted quickly into AI ecosystem solutions that now account for nearly two fifths of revenue. Turning a controller specialist into a broader data platform business requires heavy ongoing R&D and operating spend that may limit margin gains. Our models see the stock as overvalued against these costs. Will the new revenue streams more than offset the extra expenses, or will profitability stay under pressure?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 372 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−81.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)64.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)32.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)38.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)279.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B5.89× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.37× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.2× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)99· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Phison Electronics Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8299
Frequently asked questions
Is Phison Electronics (8299) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 294.82 TWD versus a price of 1,560 TWD, about 81% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8299?
Our model-based fair value for Phison Electronics is 294.82 TWD (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,560 TWD.
What is the quality score of 8299?
Phison Electronics has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Phison Electronics (8299)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 294.82 TWD (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario 247.50 TWD, optimistic scenario 391.68 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Phison Electronics stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 294.82 TWD, about 81% lower versus a price of 1,560 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 247.50 TWD, optimistic scenario 391.68 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Phison Electronics (8299)?
Phison Electronics reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 150B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Phison Electronics pay a dividend?
Phison Electronics currently shows a dividend yield of 4.94% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Phison Electronics (8299)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Phison Electronics it is 294.82 TWD per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of 1,560 TWD. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Phison Electronics stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 8299 trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,560 TWD, fair value 294.82 TWD, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8299?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,560 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (294.82 TWD). For Phison Electronics the two are 1,265 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Phison Electronics worth?
The market values Phison Electronics at about 354B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is 1,560 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 294.82 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8299?
Our models span a range for Phison Electronics: cautious scenario 247.50 TWD, base 294.82 TWD, optimistic 391.68 TWD per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price 1,560 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8299?
Phison Electronics trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 294.82 TWD is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 39.3 (reported for FY2025: 37.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 12.5. Other multiples: P/B 5.9, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Phison Electronics (8299)?
Balance-sheet figures for Phison Electronics (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 64.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8299 from its 52-week high?
Phison Electronics trades at 1,560 TWD, about 45% below its 52-week high of 2,859 TWD and 56% above the low of 1,002 TWD (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 294.82 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Phison Electronics?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Phison Electronics stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price 1,560 TWD, calculated fair value 294.82 TWD (−81%), Quality Score 61/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8299 calculated?
We run Phison Electronics through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 294.82 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Phison Electronics itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Phison Electronics (8299)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 1,560 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 294.82 TWD, about 81% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Phison Electronics right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (391.68 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Phison Electronics (8299) come from?
Earnings per share at Phison Electronics grew +6.0 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.0 %, EBIT margin +1.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Phison Electronics
How large is the market capitalisation of Phison Electronics (8299)?
The market capitalisation of Phison Electronics is 354B TWD (≈ $10.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Phison Electronics (8299)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Phison Electronics is 2.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Phison Electronics (8299)?
Earnings per share at Phison Electronics are 208.07 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Phison Electronics (8299)?
The dividend yield of Phison Electronics is 4.9% (payout 39.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 37.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Phison Electronics (8299)?
The net margin of Phison Electronics is 32.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Phison Electronics (8299)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Phison Electronics is 64.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Phison Electronics (8299)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Phison Electronics is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Phison Electronics (8299)?
The operating margin of Phison Electronics is 38.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Phison Electronics (8299)?
Revenue at Phison Electronics is growing +280% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Phison Electronics (8299)?
Earnings per share at Phison Electronics are growing +31.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Phison Electronics (8299) generate?
The free cash flow of Phison Electronics is −328M TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Phison Electronics (8299) hold?
Phison Electronics holds more cash than debt, 8.4B TWD net (fiscal year 2023). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 3, 2026