Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Niche-Tech Group Ltd HK$0.08, price HK$0.09, upside -12.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0790 – HK$0.4600 · fair‑value band HK$0.0595 – HK$0.0935 · the HK$0.0870 price screens above the HK$0.0766 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of semiconductor packaging materials in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and internationally.
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Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of semiconductor packaging materials in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It provides copper-bonding wires, power copper bonding wires, aluminum silicon bonding wires, heavy aluminum bonding wires, silver alloy bonding wires, pd-coated copper wires, copper alloy bonding wires, gold bonding wires, and gold alloy bonding wires; and silicone encapsulant for LED filament and COB LED. The company also offers epoxy encapsulant products, such as glob top epoxy, LED epoxy encapsulant, and LED liquid molding epoxy; die attach adhesives for COB, LED die attached epoxy and silicone, and die attached silver adhesive; and soldering materials. It serves manufacturers of LEDs, camera modules, power devices, IC packaging, toys, and electronic products. The company was formerly known as Niche-Tech Group Limited and changed its name to Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Limited in September 2022. Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Limited was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Tai Po, Hong Kong. The company operates as a subsidiary of Niche-Tech Investment Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490) currently trades at HK$0.0870, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0766, 12.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0595 (bear) to HK$0.0935 (bull), the price of HK$0.0870 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Niche-Tech Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$147M in FY2025 versus HK$249M in FY2021, a compound −12.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$38.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$100M (≈ $12.8M) · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0400 · Net margin −26.4% · Return on equity −24.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.3% · Operating margin −15.0% · Revenue (TTM) HK$147M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −12%, 8490 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0595Fair Value HK$0.0766Bull HK$0.0935
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−24.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.8% (2020) → −12.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 220 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Niche-Tech Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8490
Frequently asked questions
Is Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0766 versus a price of HK$0.0870, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8490?
Our model-based fair value for Niche-Tech Group Ltd is HK$0.0766 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0870.
What is the quality score of 8490?
Niche-Tech Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0766 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0595, optimistic scenario HK$0.0935. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Niche-Tech Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0766, about −12% upside versus a price of HK$0.0870 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0595, optimistic scenario HK$0.0935. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
Niche-Tech Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$147M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Niche-Tech Group Ltd it is HK$0.0766 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0870. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Niche-Tech Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8490 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0870, fair value HK$0.0766, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8490?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0870); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0766). For Niche-Tech Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0104 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Niche-Tech Group Ltd worth?
The market values Niche-Tech Group Ltd at about HK$100M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0870; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0766 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8490?
Our models span a range for Niche-Tech Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0595, base HK$0.0766, optimistic HK$0.0935 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.0870). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
Balance-sheet figures for Niche-Tech Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −24.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8490 from its 52-week high?
Niche-Tech Group Ltd trades at HK$0.0870, about 60% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2160 and 10% above the low of HK$0.0790 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0766 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Niche-Tech Group Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation, Applied Materials, Inc, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Niche-Tech Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.0870, calculated fair value HK$0.0766 (−12%), Quality Score 43/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8490 calculated?
We run Niche-Tech Group Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0766, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Niche-Tech Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.0870. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0766, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Niche-Tech Group Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Niche-Tech Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
The market capitalisation of Niche-Tech Group Ltd is HK$100M (≈ $12.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Niche-Tech Group Ltd is 0.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
Earnings per share at Niche-Tech Group Ltd are HK$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
The net margin of Niche-Tech Group Ltd is −26.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Niche-Tech Group Ltd is −24.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Niche-Tech Group Ltd is −0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
The operating margin of Niche-Tech Group Ltd is −15.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
Revenue at Niche-Tech Group Ltd is growing −18.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490)?
Earnings per share at Niche-Tech Group Ltd are growing −92.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490) generate?
The free cash flow of Niche-Tech Group Ltd is −HK$80.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Niche-Tech Group Ltd (8490) carry?
The net debt of Niche-Tech Group Ltd is HK$97.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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