China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd HK$1.45, price HK$0.31, upside +367.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1760 – HK$0.7900 · fair‑value band HK$1.09 – HK$1.82 · the HK$0.3100 price screens below the HK$1.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Hongguang Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and sales of architectural glass products in the People's Republic of China. It provides safety glass products, which includes coated, insulating, laminated, and tempered glass; and glass products, such as dimming glass under the Hongguang brand name.
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China Hongguang Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and sales of architectural glass products in the People's Republic of China. It provides safety glass products, which includes coated, insulating, laminated, and tempered glass; and glass products, such as dimming glass under the Hongguang brand name. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Jieyang, the People's Republic of China. China Hongguang Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Ming Liang Global Limited.
Stock analysis
China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646) currently trades at HK$0.3100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.45, implying the stock looks roughly 78.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$1.56 per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$0.3100 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.4700, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.09 (bear) to HK$1.82 (bull), the price of HK$0.3100 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
China Hongguang Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 243M CNY in FY2025 versus 203M CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was 57.0M CNY in FY2025, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$233M (≈ $29.7M) · P/E ratio 2.7 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600 · Net margin 23.5% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7% · Operating margin 20.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 368%, 8646 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.09Fair Value HK$1.45Bull HK$1.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0454 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 28%
Compare China Hongguang Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 251 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)23.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.45 versus a price of HK$0.3100, about +368% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8646?
Our model-based fair value for China Hongguang Holdings Ltd is HK$1.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3100.
What is the quality score of 8646?
China Hongguang Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.09, optimistic scenario HK$1.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Hongguang Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.45, about +368% upside versus a price of HK$0.3100 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.09, optimistic scenario HK$1.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
China Hongguang Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 243M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Hongguang Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3100. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Hongguang Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 8646 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3100, fair value HK$1.45, a gap of about +368% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8646?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.45). For China Hongguang Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Hongguang Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values China Hongguang Holdings Ltd at about HK$233M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3100; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8646?
Our models span a range for China Hongguang Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.09, base HK$1.45, optimistic HK$1.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.3100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8646?
China Hongguang Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8646 from its 52-week high?
China Hongguang Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.3100, about 19% below its 52-week high of HK$0.3850 and 76% above the low of HK$0.1760 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Hongguang Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Hongguang Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.3100, calculated fair value HK$1.45 (+368%), Quality Score 49/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8646 calculated?
We run China Hongguang Holdings Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Hongguang Holdings Ltd currently trades 79 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.3100. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.45, about +368% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Hongguang Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
The market capitalisation of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd is HK$233M (≈ $29.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd is 0.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
Earnings per share at China Hongguang Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
The net margin of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd is 23.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
The operating margin of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
Revenue at China Hongguang Holdings Ltd is growing +6.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646)?
Earnings per share at China Hongguang Holdings Ltd are growing +54.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646) generate?
The free cash flow of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd is −13.6M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Hongguang Holdings Ltd (8646) carry?
The net debt of China Hongguang Holdings Ltd is 17.9M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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