National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National Fertilizer Company SJSC stock SAR 7.57, price SAR 17.47, upside -56.7%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.57 SAR – 17.80 SAR · fair‑value band 5.17 SAR – 10.13 SAR · the 17.47 SAR price screens above the 7.57 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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MOBI Industry Co. manufactures and sells fertilizers and nitrogen compounds in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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It also offers phosphate and potash fertilizers; plastics; household insect and rodenticides; floor, glass, and furniture polishes and scouring powders; and preparations for perfuming rooms and removing odors.
The company also provides soaps and shampoos; industrial detergents, and washing and cleaning materials, as well as preparations under the Mobi and Shot brand names. In addition, it is involved in plastic bottles manufacturing.
The company was formerly known as National Fertilizer Company Ltd. and changed its name to MOBI Industry Co. in November 2022. MOBI Industry Co. was founded in 1981 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517) currently trades at 17.47 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.57 SAR, 56.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 9.15 SAR per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the 17.47 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.8000 SAR, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 5.17 SAR (bear) to 10.13 SAR (bull), the price of 17.47 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
National Fertilizer Company SJSC reported revenue of 243M SAR in FY2025 versus 170M SAR in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was 28.3M SAR in FY2025, compounding +15.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 868M SAR (≈ $231M) Micro · P/E ratio 22.7 · P/S ratio 3.20 · EPS (TTM) 0.7700 SAR · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 14.4% · Return on equity 45.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −57%, 9517 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear5.17 SARFair Value 7.57 SARBull10.13 SAR
Price 17.47 SAR · Upside -56.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3889 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−29.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 31.6%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.5% a year for the price.
Compare National Fertilizer Company SJSC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 339 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−55.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)45.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.7× · Pricier than median
P/B10.59× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.20× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow30.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA20.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)97· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)34· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Fertilizer Company SJSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9517
Frequently asked questions
Is National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.57 SAR versus a price of 17.47 SAR, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9517?
Our model-based fair value for National Fertilizer Company SJSC is 7.57 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 17.47 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9517?
National Fertilizer Company SJSC has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.57 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.17 SAR, optimistic scenario 10.13 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Fertilizer Company SJSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.57 SAR, about −57% upside versus a price of 17.47 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 5.17 SAR, optimistic scenario 10.13 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
National Fertilizer Company SJSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 266M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does National Fertilizer Company SJSC pay a dividend?
National Fertilizer Company SJSC currently shows a dividend yield of 1.72% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Fertilizer Company SJSC would have to grow free cash flow by +23.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9517 use?
Our models discount National Fertilizer Company SJSC at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Fertilizer Company SJSC that is +23.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Fertilizer Company SJSC grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +23.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Fertilizer Company SJSC (+23.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.21 %: that much free cash flow National Fertilizer Company SJSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Fertilizer Company SJSC it is 7.57 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 17.47 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Fertilizer Company SJSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 9517 trades above its calculated fair value: price 17.47 SAR, fair value 7.57 SAR, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9517?
No. The price is what the market pays today (17.47 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.57 SAR). For National Fertilizer Company SJSC the two are 9.90 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Fertilizer Company SJSC worth?
The market values National Fertilizer Company SJSC at about 868M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 17.47 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 7.57 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9517?
Our models span a range for National Fertilizer Company SJSC: cautious scenario 5.17 SAR, base 7.57 SAR, optimistic 10.13 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 17.47 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9517?
National Fertilizer Company SJSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.7 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7.57 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 10.6, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 20.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Fertilizer Company SJSC (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 45.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9517 from its 52-week high?
National Fertilizer Company SJSC trades at 17.47 SAR, about 2% below its 52-week high of 17.80 SAR and 89% above the low of 9.26 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.57 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Fertilizer Company SJSC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Fertilizer Company SJSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 17.47 SAR, calculated fair value 7.57 SAR (−57%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9517 calculated?
We run National Fertilizer Company SJSC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.57 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. National Fertilizer Company SJSC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 17.47 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 7.57 SAR, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Fertilizer Company SJSC right now?
A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (10.13 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (5.17 SAR to 10.13 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of National Fertilizer Company SJSC
How large is the market capitalisation of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
The market capitalisation of National Fertilizer Company SJSC is 868M SAR (≈ $231M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Fertilizer Company SJSC is 3.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
Earnings per share at National Fertilizer Company SJSC are 0.7700 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
The dividend yield of National Fertilizer Company SJSC is 1.7% (payout 39.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
The net margin of National Fertilizer Company SJSC is 14.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Fertilizer Company SJSC is 45.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Fertilizer Company SJSC is 19.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
The operating margin of National Fertilizer Company SJSC is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
Revenue at National Fertilizer Company SJSC is growing +19.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517)?
Earnings per share at National Fertilizer Company SJSC are growing +175% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does National Fertilizer Company SJSC (9517) hold?
National Fertilizer Company SJSC holds more cash than debt, 4.3M SAR net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 28, 2026