Linmon Media Ltd (9857) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · HK · Market cap HK$719M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +8.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
48‑month range HK$1.87 – HK$30.75 · fair‑value band HK$1.40 – HK$2.49 · the HK$2.70 price screens above the HK$1.94 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Linmon Media Ltd (9857) currently trades at HK$2.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.94, implying the stock looks roughly 28.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Linmon Media Ltd generated revenue of HK$863M at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue declined 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.3%. Net debt stands at HK$81.6M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.40 (bear case) to HK$2.49 (bull case); at HK$2.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -28%, 9857 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$4.37) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.7200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Linmon Media Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production, distribution, and licensing of broadcasting rights of drama series in Mainland China and internationally.
Full company description
Linmon Media Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production, distribution, and licensing of broadcasting rights of drama series in Mainland China and internationally. The company is also involved in content marketing and other businesses; production of made-to-order drama series; development, production, and distribution of films; investment in drama series as a non-executive producer; and licensing its IP derivatives adaptation rights. In addition, it engages in the production, operation, and distribution of radio and television programs; investment in internet live technical services; and shooting and production of product placement advertisements in drama series. Further, the company is involved in the investment and operation of drama series and relevant derivatives. Linmon Media Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Linmon Media Ltd reported revenue of HK$863M in FY2025 versus HK$1.2B in FY2021, a compound −8.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$31.2M in FY2025, compounding −15.4%/yr from FY2021.
9857 screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Netflix, Inc →
Peer Group
Entertainment · 266 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc ZNFL | C$6.08 | C$2.66 | -56% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $103.18 | $80.62 | -22% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $27.65 | $9.03 | -67% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $185.33 | $59.97 | -68% |
| Empresas Cablevisión, S.A. CABLECPO | 55.00 MXN | 59.14 MXN | +8% |
| PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk, MSIN | 370.00 IDR | 212.14 IDR | -43% |
| Prime Focus Limited PFOCUS | ₹268.00 | ₹63.45 | -76% |
| JYP Entertainment Corporation 035900 | 46,000 KRW | 82,382 KRW | +79% |
| SM Entertainment Co 041510 | 75,500 KRW | 208,415 KRW | +176% |
| PVR INOX Limited PVRINOX | ₹1,176 | ₹467.91 | -60% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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