Linmon Media Ltd (9857) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Linmon Media Ltd HK$3.32, price HK$2.70, upside +23.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
50‑month range HK$1.87 – HK$30.75 · fair‑value band HK$3.24 – HK$3.38 · the HK$2.70 price screens below the HK$3.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Linmon Media Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production, distribution, and licensing of broadcasting rights of drama series in Mainland China and internationally.
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Linmon Media Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production, distribution, and licensing of broadcasting rights of drama series in Mainland China and internationally. The company is also involved in content marketing and other businesses; production of made-to-order drama series; development, production, and distribution of films; investment in drama series as a non-executive producer; and licensing its IP derivatives adaptation rights. In addition, it engages in the production, operation, and distribution of radio and television programs; investment in internet live technical services; and shooting and production of product placement advertisements in drama series. Further, the company is involved in the investment and operation of drama series and relevant derivatives. Linmon Media Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Linmon Media Ltd (9857) currently trades at HK$2.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.32, implying the stock looks roughly 18.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$5.10 per share, and 8 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$2.70 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.8400, and 7 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$3.24 (bear) to HK$3.38 (bull), the price of HK$2.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Linmon Media Ltd reported revenue of 863M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.8%/yr. Reported net income was 31.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −15.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$976M (≈ $124M) · P/E ratio 26.7 · P/S ratio 0.97 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1010 · Dividend yield 10.9% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 23%, 9857 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.24Fair Value HK$3.32Bull HK$3.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0225 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.20/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 5%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 242 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+23.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.3% · Above median
Return on assets−0.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Linmon Media Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9857
Frequently asked questions
Is Linmon Media Ltd (9857) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.32 versus a price of HK$2.70, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9857?
Our model-based fair value for Linmon Media Ltd is HK$3.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.70.
What is the quality score of 9857?
Linmon Media Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.24, optimistic scenario HK$3.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Linmon Media Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.32, about +23% upside versus a price of HK$2.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.24, optimistic scenario HK$3.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
Linmon Media Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 863M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Linmon Media Ltd pay a dividend?
Linmon Media Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Linmon Media Ltd it is HK$3.32 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.70. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Linmon Media Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 9857 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.70, fair value HK$3.32, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9857?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.32). For Linmon Media Ltd the two are HK$0.6200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Linmon Media Ltd worth?
The market values Linmon Media Ltd at about HK$976M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.70; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9857?
Our models span a range for Linmon Media Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.24, base HK$3.32, optimistic HK$3.38 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9857?
Linmon Media Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 21.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
Balance-sheet figures for Linmon Media Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9857 from its 52-week high?
Linmon Media Ltd trades at HK$2.70, about 36% below its 52-week high of HK$4.20 and 44% above the low of HK$1.87 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Linmon Media Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Linmon Media Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.70, calculated fair value HK$3.32 (+23%), Quality Score 55/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9857 calculated?
We run Linmon Media Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Linmon Media Ltd currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$2.70. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.32, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Linmon Media Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.24). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band (HK$3.24 to HK$3.38), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Linmon Media Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
The market capitalisation of Linmon Media Ltd is HK$976M (≈ $124M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Linmon Media Ltd is 0.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
Earnings per share at Linmon Media Ltd are HK$0.1010 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
The dividend yield of Linmon Media Ltd is 10.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
The net margin of Linmon Media Ltd is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Linmon Media Ltd is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Linmon Media Ltd is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
The operating margin of Linmon Media Ltd is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Linmon Media Ltd (9857)?
Revenue at Linmon Media Ltd is growing −0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Linmon Media Ltd (9857) generate?
The free cash flow of Linmon Media Ltd is −304M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Linmon Media Ltd (9857) carry?
The net debt of Linmon Media Ltd is 81.6M CNY (fiscal year 2019). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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