Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nebius Group N.V. stock $10.48, price $129, that is 91.9% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.16 – $286.69 · fair‑value band $10.30 – $12.69 · the $129.49 price screens above the $10.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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It offers Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers.
The company also provides TripleTen, an edtech platform for re-skilling individuals for careers in technolgy; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robotics.
It has a strategic alliance with NVIDIA Corporation to support the expansion of the company's AI cloud infrastructure. The company was formerly known as Yandex N.V. and changed its name to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024.
Nebius Group N.V. was founded in 1989 and is based in Schiphol, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) currently trades at $129.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.48, 92% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $21.56 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the $129.49 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $11.94, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $10.30 (bear) to $12.69 (bull), the price of $129.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Nebius Group N.V. reported revenue of $530M in FY2025 versus $4.8B in FY2021, a compound −42.2%/yr. Reported net income was $102M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $46.6B Large · P/E ratio 132.9 · P/S ratio 25.5 · EPS (TTM) $1.29 · Net margin 19.2% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −0.2%.
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −92%, NBIS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($7.25 to $94.86). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$10.30Fair Value $10.48Bull$12.69
Price $129.49 · Downside -91.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.10 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$12.12$12.33$13.1566
Growth-Adj P/E$15.09$21.56$28.0364
P/E Multiple$8.96$11.94$14.9363
All 9 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$2.90$20.23$28.3959
Lynch FV$10.45$14.93$19.4157
PEG = 1.0$10.45$14.93$19.4154
Multiples
P/E Multiple$8.96$11.94$14.9363
P/S Multiple$5.44$7.25$9.0758
P/B Multiple$71.14$94.86$118.5755
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$9.63$12.91$19.2754
Economic Profit
Residual Income$12.12$12.33$13.1566
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$15.09$21.56$28.0364
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $330,440, on Oct 29, 2026. Over the same period, 10 people sold shares worth $301.6M.
SaleJohn Wilson Boynton IVDirector7× since Jun 15, 2026: 32,073 shares, avg. $217.49$7.0MOct 29, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyArne GrimmeDirector6× since Oct 15, 2026: 2,014 shares, avg. $164.07$330,440Oct 29, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDanila ShtanChief Technology Officer4× since Mar 31, 2026: 60,650 shares, avg. $205.65$12.5MOct 1, 2026
SaleAndrey KorolenkoChief Infrastructure Officer5× since Mar 31, 2026: 621,294 shares, avg. $197.26$122.6MOct 1, 2026
SaleSanchez Maria del Dado AlonsoCFO2× since Jun 2, 2026: 1,979 shares, avg. $257.15$508,906Sep 1, 2026
SaleCharles E RyanDirector50,000 shares at $265.53$13.3MAug 14, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBoaz TalGeneral Counsel2× since Mar 31, 2026: 8,136 shares, avg. $161.85$1.3MMay 20, 2026
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+350.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+239.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.4% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−45.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−45.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.5% vs −0.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → −113%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 16.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The business quality rests on strong contracts with Microsoft and Meta to scale an AI cloud platform, offset by the heavy upfront capital demands and uncertainty over whether utilization and margins can match the spending pace.
Main risk: Meta could enter the AI cloud market with its own capacity and thereby reduce demand from one of Nebius's largest customers while adding competing supply, squeezing prices and margins on GPU rental services.
Bull case: Nebius could leverage customer prepayments covering over half of capex and its on-site power solutions to secure alternative financing and accelerate deployments ahead of hyperscalers.
Bear case: If debt markets remain closed and legal challenges halt multiple sites while key customers internalize capacity, Nebius might be unable to complete its buildout and lose contracted revenue streams.
Nebius is scaling an AI cloud platform backed by large contracts with Microsoft and Meta, yet the buildout demands tens of billions in upfront capital while peers face tighter financing. Recent sector moves highlight doubts about whether utilization and margins will keep pace with the spending. Will the company convert its pipeline into sustainable cash generation faster than the capital cycle tightens?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 124 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−91.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.6% · Below median
Return on assets0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−0.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)454.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.89× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)132.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.51× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 33
PAST (return on equity)2· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)56· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nebius Group N.V. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NBIS
Frequently asked questions
Is Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.48 versus a price of $129.49, about 92% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NBIS?
Our model-based fair value for Nebius Group N.V. is $10.48 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $129.49.
What is the quality score of NBIS?
Nebius Group N.V. has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.48 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.30, optimistic scenario $12.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nebius Group N.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.48, about 92% lower versus a price of $129.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.30, optimistic scenario $12.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
Nebius Group N.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nebius Group N.V. it is $10.48 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $129.49. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Nebius Group N.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, NBIS trades above its calculated fair value: price $129.49, fair value $10.48, a gap of about −92% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NBIS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($129.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.48). For Nebius Group N.V. the two are $119.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nebius Group N.V. worth?
The market values Nebius Group N.V. at about $46.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $129.49; our models calculate a fair value of $10.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NBIS?
Our models span a range for Nebius Group N.V.: cautious scenario $10.30, base $10.48, optimistic $12.69 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $129.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NBIS?
Nebius Group N.V. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 132.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.48 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 71.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.5.
What is the PEG ratio of NBIS?
The PEG ratio of Nebius Group N.V. is 0.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nebius Group N.V. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 0.6%, debt of 0.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NBIS from its 52-week high?
Nebius Group N.V. trades at $129.49, about 55% below its 52-week high of $286.69 and 75% above the low of $73.87 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nebius Group N.V.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nebius Group N.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $129.49, calculated fair value $10.48 (−92%), Quality Score 51/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NBIS calculated?
We run Nebius Group N.V. through 9 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.48 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. Nebius Group N.V. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $129.49. Our model-based fair value is $10.48, about 92% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nebius Group N.V. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Nebius Group N.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
The market capitalisation of Nebius Group N.V. is $46.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nebius Group N.V. is 25.5 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
Earnings per share at Nebius Group N.V. are $1.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 132.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
The net margin of Nebius Group N.V. is 19.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nebius Group N.V. is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nebius Group N.V. is −5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
The operating margin of Nebius Group N.V. is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)?
Revenue at Nebius Group N.V. is growing +454% versus a year earlier (3y avg +240%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) generate?
The free cash flow of Nebius Group N.V. is −$3.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) carry?
The net debt of Nebius Group N.V. is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026