Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd TWD 22.12, price TWD 21.20, upside +4.3%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 19.85 TWD – 25.63 TWD · fair‑value band 16.59 TWD – 27.65 TWD · the 21.20 TWD price screens below the 22.12 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Great China Metal Ind. Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells food and beverage packaging containers in Taiwan, China, Southeast Asia, and internationally.
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Great China Metal Ind. Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells food and beverage packaging containers in Taiwan, China, Southeast Asia, and internationally. The company offers aluminum can, DRD, and end/bottom lid products; and coated aluminum cans, three-piece tin cans, re-extruded DRD cans, art cans, as well as aluminum and steel full-open lids, beverage easy-open lids, and plastic wrap-around film. Its products are used for beer cans, juice/soda cans, tea/coffee cans, canned food containers, milk powder cans, tea/cereal cans, functional drink cans, full-open/eco-friendly lids, and customized products applications. The company is also involved in the provision of printing and packaging services for various metal; and manufactures and sells metal containers, plastic products, and container packaging machine. The company was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905) currently trades at 21.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.12 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 4.2% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 28.08 TWD per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the 21.20 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 10.26 TWD, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 16.59 TWD (bear) to 27.65 TWD (bull), the price of 21.20 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd reported revenue of 8.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 8.7B TWD in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was 397M TWD in FY2025, compounding −9.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.4B TWD (≈ $200M) · P/E ratio 16.3 · P/S ratio 0.79 · EPS (TTM) 1.30 TWD · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 4%, 9905 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 16.59 TWDFair Value 22.12 TWDBull 27.65 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1468 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6% vs −5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−24.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −25.3% a year for the price.
Compare Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9905
Frequently asked questions
Is Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 22.12 TWD versus a price of 21.20 TWD, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 9905?
Our model-based fair value for Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd is 22.12 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 21.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 9905?
Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 22.12 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 16.59 TWD, optimistic scenario 27.65 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 22.12 TWD, about +4% upside versus a price of 21.20 TWD (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 16.59 TWD, optimistic scenario 27.65 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.5B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -24.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9905 use?
Our models discount Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd that is -24.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd grew +2.4 % a year. The price currently implies -24.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (-24.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.31 %: that much free cash flow Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd it is 22.12 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 21.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 9905 trades below its calculated fair value: price 21.20 TWD, fair value 22.12 TWD, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9905?
No. The price is what the market pays today (21.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (22.12 TWD). For Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd the two are 0.9200 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd worth?
The market values Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd at about 6.4B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 21.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 22.12 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9905?
Our models span a range for Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd: cautious scenario 16.59 TWD, base 22.12 TWD, optimistic 27.65 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 21.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9905?
Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 22.12 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
Balance-sheet figures for Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9905 from its 52-week high?
Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd trades at 21.20 TWD, about 3% below its 52-week high of 21.80 TWD and 7% above the low of 19.85 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 22.12 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 21.20 TWD, calculated fair value 22.12 TWD (+4%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9905 calculated?
We run Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 22.12 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 21.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 22.12 TWD, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905) come from?
Earnings per share at Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd grew −4.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.9 %, EBIT margin −6.8 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
The market capitalisation of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd is 6.4B TWD (≈ $200M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd is 0.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
Earnings per share at Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd are 1.30 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
The dividend yield of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd is 5.2% (payout 84.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
The net margin of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd is 4.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
The operating margin of Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
Revenue at Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd is growing +15.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905)?
Earnings per share at Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd are growing +45.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd (9905) hold?
Great China Metal Industry Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 580M TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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