Great China Metal Ind. Co (9905) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TW · Market cap 6.3B TWD
Fair value as of: Jul 23, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price +5.2% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from 16.59 TWD (bear) to 27.65 TWD (bull), base 22.12 TWD. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 64/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 19.85 TWD – 25.63 TWD · fair‑value band 16.59 TWD – 27.65 TWD · the 21.35 TWD price screens below the 22.12 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
Analysis
Great China Metal Ind. Co (9905) currently trades at 21.35 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.12 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 3.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Great China Metal Ind. Co generated revenue of 8.5B TWD at a net margin of 5.1%. Revenue grew 15.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 580M TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 16.59 TWD (bear case) to 27.65 TWD (bull case); at 21.35 TWD, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 4%, 9905 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (32.27 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (13.70 TWD). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Great China Metal Ind. Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells food and beverage packaging containers in Taiwan, China, Southeast Asia, and internationally.
Full company description
Great China Metal Ind. Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells food and beverage packaging containers in Taiwan, China, Southeast Asia, and internationally. The company offers aluminum can, DRD, and end/bottom lid products; and coated aluminum cans, three-piece tin cans, re-extruded DRD cans, art cans, as well as aluminum and steel full-open lids, beverage easy-open lids, and plastic wrap-around film. Its products are used for beer cans, juice/soda cans, tea/coffee cans, canned food containers, milk powder cans, tea/cereal cans, functional drink cans, full-open/eco-friendly lids, and customized products applications. The company is also involved in the provision of printing and packaging services for various metal; and manufactures and sells metal containers, plastic products, and container packaging machine. The company was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Great China Metal Ind. Co reported revenue of 8.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 8.7B TWD in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was 397M TWD in FY2025, compounding −9.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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