Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hsin Ba Ba Corp TWD 4.32, price TWD 39.60, upside -89.1%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value 4.32 TWD · Strongly overvalued (−89%)
!Quality 29/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +50.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.9% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers(6/10)
!Moderate moat56/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Hsin Ba Ba Corporation, together with its subsidiary, engages in the development, sale, and rental of public housing and commercial buildings in Taiwan. It is also involved in printing on metal, glass, and aluminum foil; and the manufacture, processing, and trading of paper containers and parts.
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Hsin Ba Ba Corporation, together with its subsidiary, engages in the development, sale, and rental of public housing and commercial buildings in Taiwan. It is also involved in printing on metal, glass, and aluminum foil; and the manufacture, processing, and trading of paper containers and parts. The company was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906) currently trades at 39.60 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.32 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 816.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 9.98 TWD per share, and 2 of the 12 models we run sit above the 39.60 TWD price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 1.60 TWD, and 10 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3.02 TWD (bear) to 4.64 TWD (bull), the price of 39.60 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hsin Ba Ba Corp reported revenue of 1.3B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.4B TWD in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was 8.5M TWD in FY2025, compounding −57.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.7B TWD (≈ $118M) · P/E ratio 440.0 · P/S ratio 2.89 · EPS (TTM) 0.0900 TWD · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 24.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −89%, 9906 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.6600 TWD to 75.83 TWD). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 3.02 TWDFair Value 4.32 TWDBull 4.64 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0661 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−70.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−50.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−50.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−51% vs −17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−32% → 6%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth905% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)15.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.16× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)440.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)70· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)42· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hsin Ba Ba Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9906
Frequently asked questions
Is Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.32 TWD versus a price of 39.60 TWD, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9906?
Our model-based fair value for Hsin Ba Ba Corp is 4.32 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 39.60 TWD.
What is the quality score of 9906?
Hsin Ba Ba Corp has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.32 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.02 TWD, optimistic scenario 4.64 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hsin Ba Ba Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.32 TWD, about −89% upside versus a price of 39.60 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.02 TWD, optimistic scenario 4.64 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
Hsin Ba Ba Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hsin Ba Ba Corp it is 4.32 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 39.60 TWD. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hsin Ba Ba Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 9906 trades above its calculated fair value: price 39.60 TWD, fair value 4.32 TWD, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9906?
No. The price is what the market pays today (39.60 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.32 TWD). For Hsin Ba Ba Corp the two are 35.28 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hsin Ba Ba Corp worth?
The market values Hsin Ba Ba Corp at about 3.7B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 39.60 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 4.32 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9906?
Our models span a range for Hsin Ba Ba Corp: cautious scenario 3.02 TWD, base 4.32 TWD, optimistic 4.64 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 39.60 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9906?
Hsin Ba Ba Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 440.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4.32 TWD is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hsin Ba Ba Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.6%, debt of 1.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9906 from its 52-week high?
Hsin Ba Ba Corp trades at 39.60 TWD, about 35% below its 52-week high of 61.20 TWD and 24% above the low of 31.90 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.32 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hsin Ba Ba Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hsin Ba Ba Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 39.60 TWD, calculated fair value 4.32 TWD (−89%), Quality Score 29/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9906 calculated?
We run Hsin Ba Ba Corp through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4.32 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hsin Ba Ba Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 39.60 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 4.32 TWD, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hsin Ba Ba Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4.64 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906) come from?
Earnings per share at Hsin Ba Ba Corp grew +26.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.0 %, EBIT margin +8.1 %, tax rate −3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hsin Ba Ba Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
The market capitalisation of Hsin Ba Ba Corp is 3.7B TWD (≈ $118M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hsin Ba Ba Corp is 2.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
Earnings per share at Hsin Ba Ba Corp are 0.0900 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 440.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
The net margin of Hsin Ba Ba Corp is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hsin Ba Ba Corp is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hsin Ba Ba Corp is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
The operating margin of Hsin Ba Ba Corp is 24.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
Revenue at Hsin Ba Ba Corp is growing +905% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906)?
Earnings per share at Hsin Ba Ba Corp are growing −22.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906) generate?
The free cash flow of Hsin Ba Ba Corp is −1.6B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hsin Ba Ba Corp (9906) carry?
The net debt of Hsin Ba Ba Corp is 6.6B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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