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Honliv Healthcare Management Group (9906) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$936M

HH Honliv Healthcare Management Group 9906 · HK
PriceHK$1.56
Fair ValueHK$1.14
Upside-26.9%
Quality60/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 1.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/13)
Narrow moat 18/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.8600 – HK$1.43 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

A solid business, but screening 27% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$2.85 HK$1.34 Fair Value HK$1.14 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.34 – HK$2.85 · fair‑value band HK$0.8600 – HK$1.43 · the HK$1.56 price screens above the HK$1.14 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Honliv Healthcare Management Group (9906) currently trades at HK$1.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.14, implying the stock looks roughly 26.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Honliv Healthcare Management Group generated revenue of HK$700M at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue declined 16.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$82.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.8600 (bear case) to HK$1.43 (bull case); at HK$1.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -27%, 9906 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.9000 HK$1.09 HK$1.32 80
Residual Income HK$0.7000 HK$0.6900 HK$0.6300 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.04 HK$1.43 HK$1.88 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.9000 HK$1.11 HK$1.39 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.24 HK$1.61 HK$2.10 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.04 HK$1.43 HK$1.94 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.76 HK$2.78 HK$3.98 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.06 HK$1.47 HK$1.90 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.9500 HK$1.28 HK$1.72 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.39 HK$2.13 HK$3.14 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.9800 HK$1.30 HK$1.69 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.3500 HK$1.08 HK$1.44 54
Lynch FV HK$0.2300 HK$0.3300 HK$0.4300 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.2300 HK$0.3300 HK$0.4300 46
EPV HK$0.9300 HK$1.00 HK$1.06 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.8600 HK$1.14 HK$1.43 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.6600 HK$0.8800 HK$1.10 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.6600 HK$0.8800 HK$1.10 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.48 HK$1.84 HK$2.20 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.60 HK$3.32 HK$4.05 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.17 HK$1.50 HK$1.83 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4800 HK$0.6400 HK$0.9600 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.9000 HK$1.09 HK$1.32 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.04 HK$1.43 HK$1.88 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.7000 HK$0.6900 HK$0.6300 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.9300 HK$1.03 HK$1.14 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.7000 HK$1.00 HK$1.30 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.43) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.3300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$700M
Revenue growth (YoY) -16.5%
Net margin 1.5%
Return on equity 1.9%
Free cash flow HK$31.2M FY2024
P/E ratio 78.0
More key figures
Operating margin 1.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -13.6%
Net cash HK$82.5M FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Honliv Healthcare Management Group Company Limited engages in the ownership, operation, and management of hospitals in the People's Republic of China. It provides integrated medical and pharmaceutical services; hospital management services; and maternal and infant nursing services. The company also operates as a pharmaceutical wholesaler.

Full company description

Honliv Healthcare Management Group Company Limited engages in the ownership, operation, and management of hospitals in the People's Republic of China. It provides integrated medical and pharmaceutical services; hospital management services; and maternal and infant nursing services. The company also operates as a pharmaceutical wholesaler. In addition, it operates and manages Henan Honliv Hospital. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Changyuan, China. Honliv Healthcare Management Group Company Limited is a subsidiary of Sunny Rock Capital Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years

Honliv Healthcare Management Group reported revenue of HK$769M in FY2024 versus HK$524M in FY2020, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$31.2M in FY2024, compounding +9.3%/yr from FY2020.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2024)
HK$769M
Latest YoY
+1.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.7%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.0%
Revenue +10.1%/yr
FY20 HK$524M
FY21 HK$607M
FY22 HK$728M
FY23 HK$761M
FY24 HK$769M
Net income +9.3%/yr
FY20 HK$21.8M
FY21 HK$36.6M
FY22 HK$48.9M
FY23 HK$38.3M
FY24 HK$31.2M

9906 screens 27% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →

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Honliv Healthcare Management Group · Fair Value
HK$1.14 −27%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Honliv Healthcare Management Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9906

Peer Group

Medical Care Facilities · 261 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −27% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -17% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 78.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.63× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.34× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 3.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 23
FUTURE 0 · sector 24
PAST 7 · sector 30
HEALTH 99 · sector 90
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA $378.85 $554.93 +46%
Fresenius SE FRE €41.73 €32.15 -23%
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 235.00 SAR 112.37 SAR -52%
IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F 2.58 SGD 1.44 SGD -44%
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC $194.91 $338.05 +73%
Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 R$36.01 R$47.31 +31%
DaVita Inc DVA $231.61 $255.97 +11%
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP ₹8,955 ₹2,955 -67%
Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS $24.68 $45.60 +85%
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 ¥8.68 ¥7.67 -12%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Honliv Healthcare Management Group (9906) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.14 versus a price of HK$1.56, about −27% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9906?
Our model-based fair value for Honliv Healthcare Management Group is HK$1.14 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.56.
What is the quality score of 9906?
Honliv Healthcare Management Group has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Honliv Healthcare Management Group (9906)?
Honliv Healthcare Management Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$700M (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9906?
The net profit margin of Honliv Healthcare Management Group is about 1.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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