Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd TWD 17.27, price TWD 42.70, upside -59.6%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Shin Shin Natural Gas Company Limited engages in the transmission of combustible natural gas by pipeline for non-industrial fuel supply in Taiwan. The company is involved in installation of gas pipeline construction, and other related natural gas industry and affiliated businesses.
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Shin Shin Natural Gas Company Limited engages in the transmission of combustible natural gas by pipeline for non-industrial fuel supply in Taiwan. The company is involved in installation of gas pipeline construction, and other related natural gas industry and affiliated businesses. It also manufactures, sells, imports, and exports gas equipment; and plans and supervises gas equipment and construction. It serves residential and commercial customers. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is based in New Taipei City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918) currently trades at 42.70 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17.27 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 147.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 27.53 TWD per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 42.70 TWD price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 8.84 TWD, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 13.29 TWD (bear) to 22.91 TWD (bull), the price of 42.70 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.1B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was 286M TWD in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.6B TWD (≈ $239M) · P/E ratio 26.7 · P/S ratio 3.72 · EPS (TTM) 1.60 TWD · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −60%, 9918 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 13.29 TWDFair Value 17.27 TWDBull 22.91 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0734 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3% vs 3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.0% a year for the price.
Compare Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−60% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.29× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.81× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF2.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)70· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9918
Frequently asked questions
Is Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17.27 TWD versus a price of 42.70 TWD, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9918?
Our model-based fair value for Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd is 17.27 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 42.70 TWD.
What is the quality score of 9918?
Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 17.27 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.29 TWD, optimistic scenario 22.91 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 17.27 TWD, about −60% upside versus a price of 42.70 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 13.29 TWD, optimistic scenario 22.91 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +39.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9918 use?
Our models discount Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd that is +39.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd grew +0.7 % a year. The price currently implies +39.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (+39.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.38 %: that much free cash flow Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd it is 17.27 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 42.70 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 9918 trades above its calculated fair value: price 42.70 TWD, fair value 17.27 TWD, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9918?
No. The price is what the market pays today (42.70 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (17.27 TWD). For Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd the two are 25.43 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd at about 7.6B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 42.70 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 17.27 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9918?
Our models span a range for Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd: cautious scenario 13.29 TWD, base 17.27 TWD, optimistic 22.91 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 42.70 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9918?
Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 17.27 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9918 from its 52-week high?
Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd trades at 42.70 TWD, about 30% below its 52-week high of 61.30 TWD and 9% above the low of 39.15 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 17.27 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 42.70 TWD, calculated fair value 17.27 TWD (−60%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9918 calculated?
We run Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 17.27 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 42.70 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 17.27 TWD, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (22.91 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918) come from?
Earnings per share at Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd grew +5.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.2 %, EBIT margin +4.9 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
The market capitalisation of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd is 7.6B TWD (≈ $239M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd is 3.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
Earnings per share at Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd are 1.60 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
The dividend yield of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd is 3.5% (payout 93.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
The net margin of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd is 13.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
The operating margin of Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
Revenue at Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd is growing −8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918)?
Earnings per share at Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd are growing +14.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd (9918) hold?
Shin Shin Natural Gas Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 549M TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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