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Baozun Inc (9991) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.3B

BI Baozun Inc 9991 · HK
PriceHK$7.31
Fair ValueHK$9.70
Upside+32.7%
Quality52/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -1.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Narrow moat 10/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$5.66 – HK$13.74 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +1.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 33% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$5.66 to HK$13.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$98.50 HK$4.97 Fair Value HK$9.70 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$4.97 – HK$98.50 · fair‑value band HK$5.66 – HK$13.74 · the HK$7.31 price screens below the HK$9.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Baozun Inc (9991) currently trades at HK$7.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.70, implying the stock looks roughly 32.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Baozun Inc generated revenue of HK$10.3B at a net margin of -1.8%. Revenue grew 15.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.3%. Net debt stands at HK$1.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$5.66 (bear case) to HK$13.74 (bull case); at HK$7.31, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at 33%, 9991 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$33.68 HK$48.88 HK$70.24 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$31.50 HK$47.97 HK$68.79 74
Gordon GGM HK$1.04 HK$1.88 HK$2.59 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$33.99 HK$51.00 HK$76.34 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$31.50 HK$48.18 HK$70.33 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$23.78 HK$32.60 HK$43.00 41
10Y Revenue Exit HK$31.44 HK$46.58 HK$68.78 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$27.47 HK$36.26 HK$48.29 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.04 HK$1.88 HK$2.59 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.04 HK$1.72 HK$2.01 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$18.77 HK$22.86 HK$26.95 54
EV/Revenue HK$30.72 HK$41.09 HK$51.47 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$11.31 HK$15.16 HK$22.62 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$33.68 HK$48.88 HK$70.24 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$31.50 HK$47.97 HK$68.79 74

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$47.97) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.72). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$10.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) +15.3%
Net margin -1.8%
Return on equity -2.3%
Free cash flow HK$429M FY2025
Operating margin 0.0%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-1.18
EPS growth (YoY) -43.3%
Net debt HK$1.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Baozun Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of end-to-end e-commerce solutions in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, E-Commerce and Brand Management.

Full company description

Baozun Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of end-to-end e-commerce solutions in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, E-Commerce and Brand Management. The company offers end-to-end e-commerce solutions, including sales of apparel, and home and electronic products; online store design and setup; visual merchandising and marketing; online store operations; customer services; warehousing; and order fulfillment services. It also provides brand management services, such as strategy and tactic positioning; branding and marketing; retail and e-commerce operations; supply chain and logistics; and technology empowerment services. The company serves brand partners in various categories, including apparel and accessories; appliances; electronics; home and furnishings; beauty and cosmetics; fast moving consumer goods; mother and baby products; and automobiles. The company was formerly known as Baozun Cayman Inc. and changed its name to Baozun Inc. in March 2015. Baozun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Baozun Inc reported revenue of HK$9.7B in FY2025 versus HK$9.4B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$236M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 33/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$9.7B
Latest YoY
+2.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.8%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.5%
Revenue +0.8%/yr
FY21 HK$9.4B
FY22 HK$8.4B
FY23 HK$8.8B
FY24 HK$9.4B
FY25 HK$9.7B
Net income
FY21 −HK$220M
FY22 −HK$653M
FY23 −HK$278M
FY24 −HK$185M
FY25 −HK$236M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Baozun Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9991

Peer Group

Internet Retail · 108 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside +33% · Above median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Revenue growth 15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.15× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 77 · sector 35
FUTURE 77 · sector 48
PAST 0 · sector 10
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 34 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Amazon.com, Inc AMZN $267.28 $127.67 -52%
Alibaba Group BABA $125.22 $76.00 -39%
PDD Holdings PDD $89.04 $224.27 +152%
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,828 $798.98 -56%
DoorDash, Inc DASH $212.00 $38.64 -82%
Sea Limited SE $128.11 $52.70 -59%
eBay Inc EBAY $102.31 $60.13 -41%
JD.com, Inc JD €27.00 €31.73 +18%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $16.32 $2.79 -83%
Delivery Hero SE DHER €37.04 €12.71 -66%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Baozun Inc (9991) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.70 versus a price of HK$7.31, about +33% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9991?
Our model-based fair value for Baozun Inc is HK$9.70 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$7.31.
What is the quality score of 9991?
Baozun Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Baozun Inc (9991)?
Baozun Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$10.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9991?
The net profit margin of Baozun Inc is about -1.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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