Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company BRL 24.84, price BRL 51.75, upside -52.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$29.67 – R$349.39 · fair‑value band R$22.44 – R$31.06 · the R$51.75 price screens above the R$24.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition.
Show more
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp. It is also involved in the grain sourcing, handling, and multimodal transportation network supporting import, export, and distribution activities; structured trade finance activities; corn and wheat wet and dry milling and related processing activities; production of distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, and corn gluten meal for use as animal feed ingredients; and carbon capture and sequestration and other emissions-reduction initiatives. In addition, the company engages in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of an array of ingredients and solutions comprising plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems. Further, it is involved in the derivatives and commodity exchanges and clearing houses; and insurance coverage for certain property, casualty, marine, medical, and other miscellaneous risks. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34) currently trades at R$51.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$24.84, 52.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$40.25 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$51.75 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R$3.73, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$22.44 (bear) to R$31.06 (bull), the price of R$51.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company reported revenue of $80.3B in FY2025 versus $102B in FY2022, a compound −7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding −37.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$198B (≈ $37.9B) · P/E ratio 35.5 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) R$11.59 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 85% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at −52%, A1DM34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$22.44Fair Value R$24.84Bull R$31.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$7.21 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−32.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−32.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 1%
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/A1DM34
Frequently asked questions
Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$24.84 versus a price of R$51.75, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of A1DM34?
Our model-based fair value for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is R$24.84 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$51.75.
What is the quality score of A1DM34?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$24.84 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$22.44, optimistic scenario R$31.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Archer-Daniels-Midland Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$24.84, about −52% upside versus a price of R$51.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$22.44, optimistic scenario R$31.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $80.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company pay a dividend?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.50% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Archer-Daniels-Midland Company it is R$24.84 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$51.75. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, A1DM34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$51.75, fair value R$24.84, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of A1DM34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$51.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$24.84). For Archer-Daniels-Midland Company the two are R$26.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company worth?
The market values Archer-Daniels-Midland Company at about R$198B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$51.75; our models calculate a fair value of R$24.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A1DM34?
Our models span a range for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company: cautious scenario R$22.44, base R$24.84, optimistic R$31.06 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$51.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is A1DM34 from its 52-week high?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company trades at R$51.75, about 85% below its 52-week high of R$349.39 and 41% above the low of R$36.60 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$24.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Archer-Daniels-Midland Company?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, Wens Foodstuff Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$51.75, calculated fair value R$24.84 (−52%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of A1DM34 calculated?
We run Archer-Daniels-Midland Company through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$24.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$51.75. Our model-based fair value is R$24.84, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Archer-Daniels-Midland Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$31.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
The market capitalisation of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is R$198B (≈ $37.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is 35.5 (as of Jul 14, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is 0.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
Earnings per share at Archer-Daniels-Midland Company are R$11.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
The dividend yield of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is 0.5% (payout 2.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
The net margin of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is 4.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
The operating margin of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
Revenue at Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34)?
Earnings per share at Archer-Daniels-Midland Company are growing +0.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34) generate?
The free cash flow of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is $4.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (A1DM34) carry?
The net debt of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is $7.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Continue in the live analysis
Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
