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Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Atmos Energy Corporation BRL 181, price BRL 405, upside -55.3%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Utilities · BR · ISIN US0495601058

AE Broad data Oct 2, 2026

Atmos Energy Corporation

A1TM34 · SA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value R$180.96 · Strongly overvalued (−55.3%)
!Quality 47/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +3.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.6% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!0.9% dividend yield · Token dividend
✓Wide moat 68/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$464.03 R$214.37 Fair Value R$180.96 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$214.37 – R$464.03 · fair‑value band R$136.86 – R$201.22 · the R$405.00 price screens above the R$180.96 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage.

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Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage. The Distribution segment is involved in the regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations in eight states. This segment distributes natural gas to approximately 3.4 million residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers; and owned 76,000 miles of underground distribution and transmission mains. The Pipeline and Storage segment engages in the pipeline and storage operations. This segment transports natural gas for third parties and manages five underground storage facilities in Texas; provides ancillary services customary to the pipeline industry, including parking arrangements, lending, and inventory sales; and owned 5,700 miles of gas transmission lines. Atmos Energy Corporation was founded in 1906 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34) currently trades at R$405.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$180.96, 55.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$282.13 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the R$405.00 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$77.68, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R$136.86 (bear) to R$201.22 (bull), the price of R$405.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Atmos Energy Corporation reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $4.2B in FY2022, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding +15.7%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap R$149B (≈ $28.6B) · P/E ratio 19.2 · P/S ratio 4.90 · EPS (TTM) R$21.05 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 25.5% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −55%, A1TM34 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$136.86 Fair Value R$180.96 Bull R$201.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$17.31 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$182.18 R$197.73 R$232.50 73
EPV R$47.08 R$77.68 R$104.46 69
ROIC Compounder R$47.08 R$77.68 R$104.46 68
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$127.52 R$318.31 R$412.92 62
PEG = 1.0 R$58.15 R$83.07 R$107.99 55
EPV R$47.08 R$77.68 R$104.46 69
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$79.54 R$149.03 R$244.89 63
DDM Multi-Stage R$79.54 R$120.35 R$164.66 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$253.16 R$337.54 R$421.93 63
P/S Multiple R$137.94 R$183.91 R$229.89 58
P/B Multiple R$239.09 R$318.79 R$398.49 55
EV/EBIT R$138.01 R$229.52 R$321.03 64
EV/EBITDA R$132.70 R$222.44 R$312.19 65
EV/Revenue n/a R$47.39 R$102.57 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$106.05 R$142.11 R$212.10 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$182.18 R$197.73 R$232.50 73
ROIC Compounder R$47.08 R$77.68 R$104.46 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$197.49 R$282.13 R$366.78 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 37
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 33/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 33%

A1TM34 screens overvalued: fair value 55% below the price. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €29.10 €32.79 +13%
Uniper SE UN0 €45.25 €45.97 +2%
NiSource Inc NI $39.50 $19.90 −50%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.08 HK$4.79 −32%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹172.70 ₹132.97 −23%
Italgas S.p.A IG €8.35 €9.19 +10%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥18.54 ¥36.99 +100%
UGI Corporation UGI $36.24 $32.74 −10%
ENN Energy Holdings 2688 HK$48.76 HK$107.85 +121%
Southwest Gas Holdings SWX $81.87 $57.47 −30%

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Atmos Energy Corporation · Fair Value
R$180.96 −55%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Atmos Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/A1TM34

Frequently asked questions

Is Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$180.96 versus a price of R$405.00, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of A1TM34?
Our model-based fair value for Atmos Energy Corporation is R$180.96 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$405.00.
What is the quality score of A1TM34?
Atmos Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$180.96 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$136.86, optimistic scenario R$201.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atmos Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$180.96, about −55% upside versus a price of R$405.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$136.86, optimistic scenario R$201.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
Atmos Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Atmos Energy Corporation pay a dividend?
Atmos Energy Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.92% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atmos Energy Corporation it is R$180.96 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of R$405.00. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Atmos Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, A1TM34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$405.00, fair value R$180.96, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of A1TM34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$405.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$180.96). For Atmos Energy Corporation the two are R$224.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atmos Energy Corporation worth?
The market values Atmos Energy Corporation at about R$149B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is R$405.00; our models calculate a fair value of R$180.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A1TM34?
Our models span a range for Atmos Energy Corporation: cautious scenario R$136.86, base R$180.96, optimistic R$201.22 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price R$405.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is A1TM34 from its 52-week high?
Atmos Energy Corporation trades at R$405.00, about 13% below its 52-week high of R$464.03 and at the low of R$405.00 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$180.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atmos Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, The Hong Kong and China Gas Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atmos Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price R$405.00, calculated fair value R$180.96 (−55%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of A1TM34 calculated?
We run Atmos Energy Corporation through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$180.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Atmos Energy Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$405.00. Our model-based fair value is R$180.96, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atmos Energy Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$201.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Atmos Energy Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
The market capitalisation of Atmos Energy Corporation is R$149B (≈ $28.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Atmos Energy Corporation is 19.2. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Atmos Energy Corporation is 4.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
Earnings per share at Atmos Energy Corporation are R$21.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
The dividend yield of Atmos Energy Corporation is 0.9% (payout 17.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
The net margin of Atmos Energy Corporation is 25.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atmos Energy Corporation is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atmos Energy Corporation is 4.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
The operating margin of Atmos Energy Corporation is 39.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
Revenue at Atmos Energy Corporation is growing +0.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34)?
Earnings per share at Atmos Energy Corporation are growing +14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34) generate?
The free cash flow of Atmos Energy Corporation is −$1.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Atmos Energy Corporation (A1TM34) carry?
The net debt of Atmos Energy Corporation is $8.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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