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AIB Group PLC (A5G) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AIB Group PLC stock €9.30, price €11.20, that is 16.9% below the price, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

6 models, one by oneBear €6.98 to bull €11.62 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 80/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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Financial Services IE · ISIN IE00BF0L3536

Some data Nov 6, 2026

AIB Group PLC

A5G · IR

Strong quality, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 17% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 80/100

Highly profitable · 49.1% net margin (TTM)

5.9% dividend yield · Sustainable

Ranks above peers (8/12)

Wide moat 75/100

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.5 %/yr in EUR)

Some data

Fair value €9.30 · Overvalued (−16.9%)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Neobanks like Revolut eroding payments share🚩Evolving EU and Irish banking regulations

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.43 – €11.71 · fair‑value band €6.98 – €11.62 · the €11.20 price screens above the €9.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

AIB Group plc provides banking and financial products and services to personal, business, and corporate customers in the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking, AIB Capital Markets, Climate & Infrastructure Capital, AIB UK, and Group segments.

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The company offers current and savings accounts, demand deposits, notice deposits, fixed term deposits, junior/student saver deposits, and currency deposits.

It also provides personal, car, home improvement, student, SBCI and government, education, business sustainability, and farm and forestry development loans; merger and acquisition, management buyouts, syndicated debt facilities, infrastructure and project, mezzanine, asset, invoice, trade, revolving credit, corporate credit, prompt pay and insurance premium, structured and specialist, and ibanking financing services; mortgages; business and farmer credit line and overdrafts; and mortgages.

In addition, the company offers credit and debit cards; investment funds; life, home, car, travel, and business succession insurance products; and pension products.

Further, it provides foreign currency and interest rate risk management, cash management, equity investments, private banking services and advice, lending, treasury, trade facilities, asset finance, and invoice discounting services, as well as wealth management and capital markets services.

The company was formerly known as Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. and changed its name to AIB Group plc in December 2017. AIB Group plc was founded in 1825 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Stock analysis

AIB Group PLC (A5G) currently trades at €11.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.30, 17% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €10.15 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €11.20 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.39, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €6.98 (bear) to €11.62 (bull), the price of €11.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

AIB Group PLC reported revenue of €4.5B in FY2025 versus €2.4B in FY2021, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was €2.1B in FY2025, compounding +34.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap €23.9B Large · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 5.46 · EPS (TTM) €0.9600 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 49.1% · Return on equity 15.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −17%, A5G screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €6.98 Fair Value €9.30 Bull €11.62

Price €11.20 · Downside -16.9%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2582 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income €7.06 €9.01 €13.16 75

DDM Multi-Stage €5.13 €9.16 €11.62 66

Gordon GGM €5.13 €11.14 €18.61 65

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM €5.13 €11.14 €18.61 65

DDM Multi-Stage €5.13 €9.16 €11.62 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple €9.97 €13.29 €16.61 63

P/B Multiple €3.98 €5.30 €6.63 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) €3.27 €4.39 €6.55 51

Economic Profit

Residual Income €7.06 €9.01 €13.16 75

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 80/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 46

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 49

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 100

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 92

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 72

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 88

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 65

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 84

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 100

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 85/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 1 year

−8.3%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+16.2%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+13.5%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year

Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+3.6%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

≈ +47.0%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +41.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)5.9%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 41.1% / 7.2%

⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.18 per share, median 0.46 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.

A5G screens overvalued: fair value 17% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026

AI conclusion: High margins and a clean balance sheet indicate a moderate moat for this regional bank, yet limited signals on brand and processes together with regional competition constrain durability.

Main risk: Neobanks such as Revolut with millions of Irish users could capture more payments, FX and deposit business through superior application experiences and instant transfers, reducing AIB's customer engagement and margins in core retail banking.

Bull case: AIB could leverage its scale, trusted brand and ongoing AI investments in fraud detection and customer insights to retain primary banking relationships while integrating features to match neobank convenience.

Bear case: If neobanks continue to gain traction in payments and deposits while regulatory burdens mount, AIB might see sustained pressure on volumes and margins in its domestic retail franchise, limiting growth options.

AIB continues repurchasing its own shares under the buyback program that started earlier this year, with fresh transactions reported into early October. This capital return runs alongside steady lending growth and deposit inflows in a high-quality regional banking franchise. Will the focus on shrinking the share base deliver more lasting value than expanding into new areas like digital services and green finance, or will rising fraud cases and economic headwinds force a different balance?

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 80 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −16.9% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 15.1% · Top 25%

Return on assets 1.5% · Top 25%

Net margin (12 months) 49.1% · Top 25%

Operating margin (12 months) 54.4% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 2.0% · Below median

Dividend yield (12 months) 5.9% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 11.7× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.63× · Priciest 25%

P/S (12 months) 5.46× · Priciest 25%

Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 2.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)11 · sector 8

FUTURE (revenue growth)10 · sector 47

PAST (return on equity)61 · sector 43

HEALTH (low debt)–

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658	¥5.53	¥7.59	+37%	vs A5G
China Merchants Bank Co 600036	¥42.88	¥52.73	+23%	vs A5G
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€91.93	€106.01	+15%	vs A5G
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.18	€4.49	−27%	vs A5G
State Bank of India SBIN	₹1,019	₹736.65	−28%	vs A5G
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€76.80	€50.44	−34%	vs A5G
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$9.40	$5.90	−37%	vs A5G
DBS Group D05	69.72 SGD	40.39 SGD	−42%	vs A5G
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹788.25	₹406.39	−48%	vs A5G
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,571	₹615.63	−61%	vs A5G

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Frequently asked questions

Is AIB Group PLC (A5G) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €9.30 versus a price of €11.20, about 17% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of A5G?

Our model-based fair value for AIB Group PLC is €9.30 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.20.

What is the quality score of A5G?

AIB Group PLC has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of €9.30 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.98, optimistic scenario €11.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the AIB Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at €9.30, about 17% lower versus a price of €11.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €6.98, optimistic scenario €11.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

AIB Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).

Does AIB Group PLC pay a dividend?

AIB Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 5.88% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).

How much is the dividend of AIB Group PLC (A5G) and when is the ex-dividend date?

AIB Group PLC pays a dividend of €0.658 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 68.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.

What is the intrinsic value of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AIB Group PLC it is €9.30 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €11.20. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).

Is AIB Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 6, 2026, A5G trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.20, fair value €9.30, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of A5G?

No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€9.30). For AIB Group PLC the two are €1.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is AIB Group PLC worth?

The market values AIB Group PLC at about €23.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €11.20; our models calculate a fair value of €9.30 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A5G?

Our models span a range for AIB Group PLC: cautious scenario €6.98, base €9.30, optimistic €11.62 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €11.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of A5G?

AIB Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €9.30 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.2. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 5.5.

How solid is the balance sheet of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Balance-sheet figures for AIB Group PLC (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 15.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is A5G from its 52-week high?

AIB Group PLC trades at €11.20, about 4% below its 52-week high of €11.71 and 48% above the low of €7.59 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €9.30 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to AIB Group PLC?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is AIB Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €11.20, calculated fair value €9.30 (−17%), Quality Score 80/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of A5G calculated?

We run AIB Group PLC through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €9.30 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. AIB Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €11.20. Our model-based fair value is €9.30, about 17% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with AIB Group PLC right now?

A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of AIB Group PLC (A5G) come from?

Earnings per share at AIB Group PLC grew −53.9 % a year from 2005 to 2016. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −54.3 %, EBIT margin +1.1 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of AIB Group PLC

How large is the market capitalisation of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The market capitalisation of AIB Group PLC is €23.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The price-to-sales ratio of AIB Group PLC is 5.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Earnings per share at AIB Group PLC are €0.9600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The dividend yield of AIB Group PLC is 5.9% (payout 68.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The net margin of AIB Group PLC is 49.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The return on equity (ROE) of AIB Group PLC is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AIB Group PLC is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The operating margin of AIB Group PLC is 54.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Revenue at AIB Group PLC is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Earnings per share at AIB Group PLC are growing +8.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does AIB Group PLC (A5G) generate?

The free cash flow of AIB Group PLC is €8.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does AIB Group PLC (A5G) hold?

AIB Group PLC holds more cash than debt, €35.2B net (fiscal year 2021). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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