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AIB Group PLC (A5G) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of AIB Group PLC €11.08, price €11.63, upside -4.7%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · IE · ISIN IE00BF0L3536

AG Some data Sep 23, 2026

AIB Group PLC

A5G · IR

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value €11.08 · Fairly valued (−5%)

✓Quality 71/100

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.5 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 49.3% net margin (TTM)

✓generates free cash flow

·5.66% dividend yield

✓Ranks above peers (8/12)

✓Wide moat 75/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on valuation: 27 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear €8.31 to bull €13.85 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 71/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.45 – €11.71 · fair‑value band €8.31 – €13.85 · the €11.63 price screens above the €11.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

AIB Group plc provides banking and financial products and services to personal, business, and corporate customers in the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking, AIB Capital Markets, Climate & Infrastructure Capital, AIB UK, and Group segments. The company offers current and savings accounts, demand deposits, notice deposits, fixed term deposits, junior/student saver deposits, and currency deposits. It also provides personal, car, home improvement, student, SBCI and government, education, business sustainability, and farm and forestry development loans; merger and acquisition, management buyouts, syndicated debt facilities, infrastructure and project, mezzanine, asset, invoice, trade, revolving credit, corporate credit, prompt pay and insurance premium, structured and specialist, and ibanking financing services; mortgages; business and farmer credit line and overdrafts; and mortgages. In addition, the company offers credit and debit cards; investment funds; life, home, car, travel, and business succession insurance products; and pension products. Further, it provides foreign currency and interest rate risk management, cash management, equity investments, private banking services and advice, lending, treasury, trade facilities, asset finance, and invoice discounting services, as well as wealth management and capital markets services. The company was formerly known as Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. and changed its name to AIB Group plc in December 2017. AIB Group plc was founded in 1825 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Stock analysis

AIB Group PLC (A5G) currently trades at €11.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.08, implying the stock looks roughly 4.9% fairly valued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €9.70 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the €11.63 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.64, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €8.31 (bear) to €13.85 (bull), the price of €11.63 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

AIB Group PLC reported revenue of €4.5B in FY2025 versus €2.4B in FY2021, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was €2.1B in FY2025, compounding +34.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap €24.8B · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 5.94 · EPS (TTM) €0.9300 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 47.5% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −5%, A5G screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €8.31 Fair Value €11.08 Bull €13.85

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1990 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income €6.85 €8.88 €23.45 68

P/E Multiple €9.83 €13.11 €16.39 63

P/B Multiple €7.27 €9.70 €12.12 55

All 4 models by family

Multiples

P/E Multiple €9.83 €13.11 €16.39 63

P/B Multiple €7.27 €9.70 €12.12 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) €3.46 €4.64 €6.93 51

Economic Profit

Residual Income €6.85 €8.88 €23.45 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 88

Profitability 46

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 49

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 100

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 92

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 72

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 87

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 83

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 99

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 85/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 1 year

−8.3%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+16.2%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+13.5%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year

Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+3.6%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+46.8%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+41.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.41% vs 7%, picking up

Profit margin 2012 to 2016 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−719% → 56%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

less than -40 %

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+3.3%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.1% a year for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.1%

Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.0%

Projected 2028 (sales)+3.7%

Projected 2029 (sales)+3.5%

Projected 2030 (sales)+3.2%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 80 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −5% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%

Return on assets 1% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 49% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 58% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −11% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 5.7% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.5× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.92× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 6.52× · Priciest 25%

P/FCF 3.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)27 · sector 12

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45

PAST (return on equity)57 · sector 41

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05	77.80 SGD	40.48 SGD	−48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968	HK$51.65	HK$64.29	+24%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.73	€4.04	−40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹738.60	₹418.52	−43%
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€101.30	€105.99	+5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€83.28	€77.62	−7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$10.87	$6.75	−38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,340	₹636.31	−53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC	$227.96	$159.52	−30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39	32.14 SGD	19.80 SGD	−38%

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AIB Group PLC · Fair Value
€11.08 −5%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/A5G" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">AIB Group PLC · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">€11.08</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−5%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AIB Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/A5G

Frequently asked questions

Is AIB Group PLC (A5G) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €11.08 versus a price of €11.63, about −5% upside (fairly valued).

What is the fair value of A5G?

Our model-based fair value for AIB Group PLC is €11.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.63.

What is the quality score of A5G?

AIB Group PLC has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of €11.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario €8.31, optimistic scenario €13.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the AIB Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at €11.08, about −5% upside versus a price of €11.63 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €8.31, optimistic scenario €13.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

AIB Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).

Does AIB Group PLC pay a dividend?

AIB Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).

What growth is priced into AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AIB Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of A5G use?

Our models discount AIB Group PLC at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for Ireland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AIB Group PLC that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has AIB Group PLC (A5G) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at AIB Group PLC grew +13.5 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of AIB Group PLC (A5G) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AIB Group PLC (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.29 %: that much free cash flow AIB Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AIB Group PLC it is €11.08 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €11.63. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is AIB Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 23, 2026, A5G trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.63, fair value €11.08, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of A5G?

No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€11.08). For AIB Group PLC the two are €0.5450 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is AIB Group PLC worth?

The market values AIB Group PLC at about €24.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €11.63; our models calculate a fair value of €11.08 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A5G?

Our models span a range for AIB Group PLC: cautious scenario €8.31, base €11.08, optimistic €13.85 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €11.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of A5G?

AIB Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €11.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 6.5.

How solid is the balance sheet of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Balance-sheet figures for AIB Group PLC (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 14.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is A5G from its 52-week high?

AIB Group PLC trades at €11.63, about 1% below its 52-week high of €11.71 and 66% above the low of €7.01 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €11.08 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to AIB Group PLC?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is AIB Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €11.63, calculated fair value €11.08 (−5%), Quality Score 71/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of A5G calculated?

We run AIB Group PLC through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €11.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AIB Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €11.63. Our model-based fair value is €11.08, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with AIB Group PLC right now?

The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of AIB Group PLC (A5G) come from?

Earnings per share at AIB Group PLC grew −53.9 % a year from 2005 to 2016. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −54.3 %, EBIT margin +1.1 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of AIB Group PLC

How large is the market capitalisation of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The market capitalisation of AIB Group PLC is €24.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The price-to-sales ratio of AIB Group PLC is 5.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Earnings per share at AIB Group PLC are €0.9300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The dividend yield of AIB Group PLC is 5.7% (payout 70.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The net margin of AIB Group PLC is 47.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The return on equity (ROE) of AIB Group PLC is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AIB Group PLC is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

The operating margin of AIB Group PLC is 58.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Revenue at AIB Group PLC is growing −11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at AIB Group PLC (A5G)?

Earnings per share at AIB Group PLC are growing +7.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net cash does AIB Group PLC (A5G) hold?

AIB Group PLC holds more cash than debt, €35.2B net (fiscal year 2021). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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