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Data-driven stock valuation

Apple Inc (AAPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Apple Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Technology · US · Market cap $4.6T · ISIN US0378331005

At a glance

AI Apple Inc logo Apple Inc AAPL · US
Price$319.97
Fair Value$172.19
Upside−46.2%
Quality82/100

A strong business, but trading 86% above our fair value of $172.19.

As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Apple Inc is $172.19 per share against a price of $319.97, so the fair value sits 46% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.33% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
✓Wide moat 98/100
!Weak on dividend: 7 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $101.55 to $231.49

Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +2.9% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($231.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • A fairly wide model range ($101.55 to $231.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$340.08 $122.71 Fair Value $172.19 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $122.71 – $340.08 · fair‑value band $101.55 – $231.49 · the $319.97 price screens above the $172.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Apple Inc (AAPL) currently trades at $319.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $172.19, implying the stock looks roughly 85.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $196.06 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $319.97 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $18.06, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Apple Inc generated revenue of $451B at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue grew 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 141.5%. Net debt stands at $76.4B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026

Scenario range: $101.55 (bear) to $231.49 (bull), the price of $319.97 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −46%, AAPL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 11 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.70 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $91.01 $176.70 $336.51 76
Growth DCF $90.17 $168.88 $313.39 75
EPV $73.60 $87.09 $99.09 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $91.01 $176.70 $336.51 76
Owner Earnings $102.63 $198.93 $378.52 72
5Y Revenue Exit $82.95 $151.77 $246.50 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $112.04 $212.81 $341.70 73
5Y P/E Exit $129.66 $249.80 $390.34 69
10Y Revenue Exit $81.93 $149.83 $256.75 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $104.82 $196.06 $339.73 66
10Y P/E Exit $116.86 $224.09 $382.12 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $51.86 $255.32 $352.02 64
Lynch FV $68.71 $98.15 $127.60 61
PEG = 1.0 $68.71 $98.15 $127.60 57
EPV $73.60 $87.09 $99.09 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $10.10 $22.05 $37.10 65
DDM Multi-Stage $10.10 $18.06 $22.98 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $160.15 $213.54 $266.92 63
P/S Multiple $97.24 $129.65 $162.06 58
P/B Multiple $22.59 $30.12 $37.65 55
EV/EBIT $160.17 $214.53 $268.88 66
EV/EBITDA $130.16 $174.51 $218.86 67
EV/Revenue $79.55 $114.88 $150.21 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.51 $3.36 $5.02 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $90.17 $168.88 $313.39 75
Rev-Margin DCF $82.95 $149.66 $237.51 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $37.22 $77.11 $3,101 64
ROIC Compounder $78.16 $98.06 $119.95 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $124.65 $178.07 $231.49 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($196.06) versus Asset-Based ($3.36). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 39.1
P/S ratio 10.5 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $8.19 price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.1
Dividend yield 0.3% payout 12.7%
Net margin 26.9% FY2025
Return on equity 141% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 33.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 32.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $451B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.6% 3y avg +1.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +21.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $98.8B FY2025
Net debt $76.4B FY2025 · ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 82/100

Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 97
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide.

Full company description

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers exclusive original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers and resellers. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Apple Inc reported revenue of $416B in FY2025 versus $366B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $112B in FY2025, compounding +4.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$416B
Latest YoY
+6.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+17.9%
Dividend yield0.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 17.9% vs 10Y 13.6%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24.1% (2020) → 32.0% (2025) · rising
Revenue +3.3%/yr
FY21 $366B
FY22 $394B
FY23 $383B
FY24 $391B
FY25 $416B
Net income +4.3%/yr
FY21 $94.7B
FY22 $99.8B
FY23 $97.0B
FY24 $93.7B
FY25 $112B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +14.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +12.3 %

of which total revenue +7.3 % · buybacks/dilution +4.7 %

EBIT margin +0.8 %
Tax rate +1.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

AAPL screens 86% overvalued. Compare with Samsung Electronics Co →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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Apple Inc · Fair Value
$172.19 −86%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Apple Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AAPL

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Consumer Electronics · 127 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −46% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 141% · Top 25%
Return on assets 26% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 32% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.06× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Consumer Electronics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 39.1× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 10.24× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 46.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 29.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.56× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Apple Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+18.1 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+8.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.2 %
FCF yield on price2.06 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.9 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 7
FUTURE83 · sector 7
PAST100 · sector 16
HEALTH47 · sector 97
DIVIDEND7 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 25/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Consumer Electronics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Samsung Electronics Co 005930 255,500 KRW 163,160 KRW −36%
Sony Group SONY $24.56 $29.19 +19%
Xiaomi Corporation 81810 HK$24.16 HK$38.03 +57%
LG Electronics Inc 066570 201,500 KRW 98,149 KRW −51%
Sharetronic Data Technology Co 300857 ¥254.49 ¥35.52 −86%
Huaqin Co 603296 ¥78.49 ¥39.69 −49%
Goertek Inc 002241 ¥22.11 ¥21.02 −5%
LG Corp 003550 113,700 KRW 89,984 KRW −21%
Shenzhen Transsion Holdings 688036 ¥58.89 ¥56.82 −4%
Dixon Technologies (India) Limited DIXON ₹14,495 ₹4,022 −72%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Apple Inc (AAPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $172.19 versus a price of $319.97, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAPL?
Our model-based fair value for Apple Inc is $172.19 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $319.97.
What is the quality score of AAPL?
Apple Inc has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Apple Inc (AAPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $172.19 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $101.55, optimistic scenario $231.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Apple Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $172.19, about −46% upside versus a price of $319.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $101.55, optimistic scenario $231.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
Apple Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $451B (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AAPL?
The net profit margin of Apple Inc is about 27.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 27.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Apple Inc pay a dividend?
Apple Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Apple Inc (AAPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Apple Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.1 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AAPL use?
Our models discount Apple Inc at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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