Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Antilles Gold Ltd A$0.01, price A$0.01, upside -23.3%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0030 – A$0.0900 · the A$0.0090 price screens above the A$0.0069 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Antilles Gold Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Cuba. The company explores for gold, silver, antimony, and copper deposits. It holds interests in the La Demajagua open pit mine located on the Isle of Youth, southwest Cuba; and Nueva Sabana open pit mine situated in central Cuba.
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Antilles Gold Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Cuba. The company explores for gold, silver, antimony, and copper deposits. It holds interests in the La Demajagua open pit mine located on the Isle of Youth, southwest Cuba; and Nueva Sabana open pit mine situated in central Cuba. The company was formerly known as PanTerra Gold Limited and changed its name to Antilles Gold Limited in November 2020. The company was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Bowral, Australia.
Stock analysis
Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU) currently trades at A$0.0090, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0069, implying the stock looks roughly 30.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.0200 per share, and 8 of the 8 models we run sit above the A$0.0090 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.0100, and 0 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Antilles Gold Ltd reported revenue of $188K in FY2025 versus $5.5M in FY2020, a compound −49.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$21.5M (≈ $15.1M) · Net margin 586% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.1% · Operating margin −142% · Revenue (TTM) $188K · Revenue growth (YoY) +22.3% · EPS growth (YoY) −52.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −23%, AAU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0069Fair Value A$0.0069Bull A$0.0069
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.17/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+200.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−49.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −42.4% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−53.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−53.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−53.4% vs −45.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → −426%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 59.5%/yr over ~11Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Above median
Fair Value upside−23.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.3% · Above median
Return on assets−2.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−141.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0069 versus a price of A$0.0090, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAU?
Our model-based fair value for Antilles Gold Ltd is A$0.0069 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0090.
What is the quality score of AAU?
Antilles Gold Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0069 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 8 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Antilles Gold Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0069, about −23% upside versus a price of A$0.0090 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
Antilles Gold Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $188K (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Antilles Gold Ltd it is A$0.0069 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.0090. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Antilles Gold Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, AAU trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0090, fair value A$0.0069, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0090); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0069). For Antilles Gold Ltd the two are A$0.0021 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Antilles Gold Ltd worth?
The market values Antilles Gold Ltd at about A$21.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0090; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0069 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Antilles Gold Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAU from its 52-week high?
Antilles Gold Ltd trades at A$0.0090, about 47% below its 52-week high of A$0.0170 and 50% above the low of A$0.0060 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0069 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Antilles Gold Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Antilles Gold Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.0090, calculated fair value A$0.0069 (−23%), Quality Score 46/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAU calculated?
We run Antilles Gold Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0069, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Antilles Gold Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was A$0.0090. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0069, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Antilles Gold Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0069). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Antilles Gold Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
The market capitalisation of Antilles Gold Ltd is A$21.5M (≈ $15.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
The net margin of Antilles Gold Ltd is 586% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Antilles Gold Ltd is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Antilles Gold Ltd is −7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
The operating margin of Antilles Gold Ltd is −142% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
Revenue at Antilles Gold Ltd is growing +22.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +614%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU)?
Earnings per share at Antilles Gold Ltd are growing −52.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU) generate?
The free cash flow of Antilles Gold Ltd is −$884K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Antilles Gold Ltd (AAU) hold?
Antilles Gold Ltd holds more cash than debt, $3.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026