Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AR · Market cap 227T ARS (≈ $159B)
What is Ambev S.A. really worth?
A strong business, but trading 300% above our fair value of 3,587 ARS.
As of Aug 29, 2026, the fair value of Ambev S.A. is 3,587 ARS per share against a price of 14,330 ARS, so the fair value sits 75% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from 3,611 ARS to 3,587 ARS (−0.7%) since Aug 26, 2026.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4,364 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 510.02 ARS – 15,180 ARS · fair‑value band 2,820 ARS – 4,364 ARS · the 14,330 ARS price screens above the 3,587 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) currently trades at 14,330 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,587 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 299.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 3,566 ARS per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the 14,330 ARS price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 677.12 ARS, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ambev S.A. generated revenue of R$88.2B at a net margin of 17.7%. Revenue declined 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.3%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 51.5. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 2,820 ARS (bear case) to 4,364 ARS (bull case); at 14,330 ARS, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −75%, ABEV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 189.30 ARS per share, which is 5.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (3,566 ARS) versus Asset-Based (677.12 ARS). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
Notify me when ABEV reaches fair value
Put ABEV on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada.
Full company description
Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada. The company offers beer, ready-to-drink cocktails and spritzers, soft drinks, water, teas, and isotonic drinks under the Brahma, Skol, Antarctica, Original, Quilmes, Andes Origen, Patricia, Paceha, Huari, Pilsen, Presidente, Balboa, Guaraná Antarctica, and Beats brands. It sells its products to distributors, supermarkets, and retailers within a broad distribution network. The company was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Ambev S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Interbrew International B.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ambev S.A. reported revenue of R$88.2B in FY2025 versus R$79.7B in FY2022, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$15.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2022.
ABEV screens 300% overvalued. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Ambev S.A. deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth. Not a sell signal, but an expectation the company still has to earn. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI | €68.28 | €60.24 | −12% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €72.70 | €65.06 | −11% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX | $120.41 | $54.74 | −55% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $129.09 | $173.19 | +34% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,115 | kr 607.30 | −46% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €68.25 | €60.55 | −11% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥51.63 | ¥63.65 | +23% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.35 | HK$6.05 | −5% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$22.16 | HK$25.38 | +15% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.00 | C$105.41 | +67% |
Compare Ambev S.A. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Ambev S.A. (ABEV) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of ABEV?
What is the quality score of ABEV?
What is the price target for Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
What is the Ambev S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
What is the revenue of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
What is the net profit margin of ABEV?
Does Ambev S.A. pay a dividend?
What growth is priced into Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ABEV use?
Watch Ambev S.A. in the live analysis
One click puts Ambev S.A. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.