Ambev S.A. (ABEV3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ambev S.A. stock BRL 21.12, price BRL 15.79, upside +33.8%, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$9.36 – R$16.90 · fair‑value band R$14.99 – R$26.40 · the R$15.79 price screens below the R$21.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada.
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The company offers beer, ready-to-drink cocktails and spritzers, soft drinks, water, teas, and isotonic drinks under the Brahma, Skol, Antarctica, Original, Quilmes, Andes Origen, Patricia, Paceha, Huari, Pilsen, Presidente, Balboa, Guaraná Antarctica, and Beats brands.
It sells its products to distributors, supermarkets, and retailers within a broad distribution network. The company was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Ambev S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Interbrew International B.V.
Stock analysis
Ambev S.A. (ABEV3) currently trades at R$15.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$21.12, implying the stock looks roughly 25% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$23.30 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$15.79 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$10.21, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$14.99 (bear) to R$26.40 (bull), the price of R$15.79 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ambev S.A. reported revenue of R$88.2B in FY2025 versus R$72.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was R$15.5B in FY2025, compounding +5.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$246B (≈ $43.4B) Large · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 2.76 · EPS (TTM) R$1.01 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 17.7% · Return on equity 17.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 34%, ABEV3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR$14.99Fair Value R$21.12BullR$26.40
Price R$15.79 · Upside +33.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.6456 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.9% vs 2.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.7% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Ambev draws strength from its dominant Latin American beer position with resilient staples demand, yet its main weakness remains the thin public evidence of a meaningful moat across key categories.
Main risk: Heineken could increase its share in Brazil through acquisitions and premium positioning and capture customers from Ambev, reducing volumes and pressuring margins.
Bull case: Ambev could counter competition and regulatory pressure by accelerating its non-alcoholic and wellness portfolio, digital platforms and cost controls to maintain volumes and margins.
Bear case: If Heineken and craft players continue gaining share while taxes or ad rules tighten, Ambev could see sustained volume losses and margin compression in its core Brazilian beer business.
Ambev holds a dominant position in Latin American beer with resilient consumer staples demand and ongoing shifts toward premium brands and digital platforms. The recent Brazilian election outcome introduces fresh political uncertainty that could influence regulation, costs, or spending patterns, even as core operations remain steady. Our models currently see it as undervalued. Will the policy environment ultimately accelerate or constrain those growth levers more?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+33.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)25.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.6× · Pricier than median
P/B2.80× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.76× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.4× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ambev S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ABEV3
Frequently asked questions
Is Ambev S.A. (ABEV3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$21.12 versus a price of R$15.79, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ABEV3?
Our model-based fair value for Ambev S.A. is R$21.12 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$15.79.
What is the quality score of ABEV3?
Ambev S.A. has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$21.12 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$14.99, optimistic scenario R$26.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ambev S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$21.12, about +34% upside versus a price of R$15.79 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$14.99, optimistic scenario R$26.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
Ambev S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$89.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Ambev S.A. pay a dividend?
Ambev S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ambev S.A. pays a dividend of R$0.269 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 22, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2013. The payout ratio is 20.9% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 26.6%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.79 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ambev S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +1.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.6 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ABEV3 use?
Our models discount Ambev S.A. at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ambev S.A. that is +1.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ambev S.A. (ABEV3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ambev S.A. grew +8.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +1.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ambev S.A. (+1.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.07 %: that much free cash flow Ambev S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ambev S.A. it is R$21.12 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of R$15.79. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ambev S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, ABEV3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$15.79, fair value R$21.12, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ABEV3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$15.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$21.12). For Ambev S.A. the two are R$5.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ambev S.A. worth?
The market values Ambev S.A. at about R$246B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is R$15.79; our models calculate a fair value of R$21.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ABEV3?
Our models span a range for Ambev S.A.: cautious scenario R$14.99, base R$21.12, optimistic R$26.40 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price R$15.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ABEV3?
Ambev S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$21.12 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 12.5 (reported for FY2025: 16.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 19.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 2.8, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ABEV3?
The PEG ratio of Ambev S.A. is 1.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ambev S.A. (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 17.7%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ABEV3 from its 52-week high?
Ambev S.A. trades at R$15.79, about 7% below its 52-week high of R$16.90 and 28% above the low of R$12.30 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$21.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ambev S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Constellation Brands, Inc, Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ambev S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price R$15.79, calculated fair value R$21.12 (+34%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ABEV3 calculated?
We run Ambev S.A. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R$21.12 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Ambev S.A. currently trades 25% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was R$15.79. Our model-based fair value is R$21.12, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ambev S.A. right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3) come from?
Earnings per share at Ambev S.A. grew +2.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin −5.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ambev S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
The market capitalisation of Ambev S.A. is R$246B (≈ $43.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ambev S.A. is 2.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
Earnings per share at Ambev S.A. are R$1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
The dividend yield of Ambev S.A. is 1.7% (payout 20.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 26.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
The net margin of Ambev S.A. is 17.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ambev S.A. is 17.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ambev S.A. is 13.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
The operating margin of Ambev S.A. is 25.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
Revenue at Ambev S.A. is growing +3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ambev S.A. (ABEV3)?
Earnings per share at Ambev S.A. are growing −9.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ambev S.A. (ABEV3) hold?
Ambev S.A. holds more cash than debt, R$13.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 12, 2026