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American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of American Bitcoin Corp $2.81, price $8.51, upside -67.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US02462A1043

AB American Bitcoin Corp logo Thin data Oct 5, 2026

American Bitcoin Corp

ABTC · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Low debt
Quality 45/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +63.9 %/yr in USD)
Fair value $2.81 · Strongly overvalued (−67.0%)
Loss-making · -71.8% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/10)
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$121,800 $5.19 Fair Value $2.81 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.19 – $121,800 · fair‑value band $2.09 – $4.19 · the $8.51 price screens above the $2.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 5, 2026.

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Company profile

American Bitcoin Corp., a Bitcoin accumulation platform company, focuses on building a Bitcoin infrastructure platform. The company is engaged in the operation of application-specific integrated circuit miners for the purpose of mining Bitcoin and the strategic accumulation of a Bitcoin reserve. The company is based in Miami, Florida. American Bitcoin Corp.

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American Bitcoin Corp., a Bitcoin accumulation platform company, focuses on building a Bitcoin infrastructure platform. The company is engaged in the operation of application-specific integrated circuit miners for the purpose of mining Bitcoin and the strategic accumulation of a Bitcoin reserve. The company is based in Miami, Florida. American Bitcoin Corp. operates as a subsidiary of Hut 8 Corp.

Stock analysis

American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC) currently trades at $8.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.81, 67.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.09 (bear) to $4.19 (bull), the price of $8.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

American Bitcoin Corp reported revenue of $185M in FY2025 versus $17.6M in FY2021, a compound +80.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$153M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.0B · P/S ratio 3.82 · EPS (TTM) $−2.68 · Net margin −82.7% · Return on equity −38.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −78.4% · Operating margin −111% · Revenue (TTM) $272M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 92% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −67%, ABTC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.09 Fair Value $2.81 Bull $4.19
Price $8.51 · Upside -67.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $2.73 $3.66 $5.47 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.73 $3.66 $5.47 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 8

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+158.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+63.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−111.8% (2020) → −123.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ABTC screens overvalued: fair value 67% below the price. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 457 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −67.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −20.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −71.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −110.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 121.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.56× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.82× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 75
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $188.08 $314.07 +67%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $900.36 $766.86 −15%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $97.74 $118.07 +21%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $89.24 $23.12 −74%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $116.22 $47.77 −59%
Macquarie Group MQG A$245.63 A$80.51 −67%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.29 ¥18.35 −30%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.21 ¥19.35 +12%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.28 ¥4.94 −73%
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.91 $10.19 +3%

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American Bitcoin Corp · Fair Value
$2.81 −67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American Bitcoin Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ABTC

Frequently asked questions

Is American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.81 versus a price of $8.51, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ABTC?
Our model-based fair value for American Bitcoin Corp is $2.81 (as of Oct 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.51.
What is the quality score of ABTC?
American Bitcoin Corp has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.81 (as of Oct 5, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.09, optimistic scenario $4.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Bitcoin Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.81, about −67% upside versus a price of $8.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.09, optimistic scenario $4.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
American Bitcoin Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $272M (latest available figure, as of Oct 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Bitcoin Corp it is $2.81 per share (as of Oct 5, 2026), against a price of $8.51. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American Bitcoin Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 5, 2026, ABTC trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.51, fair value $2.81, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ABTC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.81). For American Bitcoin Corp the two are $5.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Bitcoin Corp worth?
The market values American Bitcoin Corp at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 5, 2026). Per share that is $8.51; our models calculate a fair value of $2.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ABTC?
Our models span a range for American Bitcoin Corp: cautious scenario $2.09, base $2.81, optimistic $4.19 per share (as of Oct 5, 2026, price $8.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Bitcoin Corp (as of Oct 5, 2026): return on equity −38.5%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ABTC from its 52-week high?
American Bitcoin Corp trades at $8.51, about 92% below its 52-week high of $108.45 and 64% above the low of $5.19 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Bitcoin Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Bitcoin Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 5, 2026: price $8.51, calculated fair value $2.81 (−67%), Quality Score 45/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ABTC calculated?
We run American Bitcoin Corp through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. American Bitcoin Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.51. Our model-based fair value is $2.81, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Bitcoin Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.09 to $4.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of American Bitcoin Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
The market capitalisation of American Bitcoin Corp is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American Bitcoin Corp is 3.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
Earnings per share at American Bitcoin Corp are $−2.68. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
The net margin of American Bitcoin Corp is −82.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American Bitcoin Corp is −38.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Bitcoin Corp is −78.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
The operating margin of American Bitcoin Corp is −111% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC)?
Revenue at American Bitcoin Corp is growing +121% versus a year earlier (3y avg +41.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC) generate?
The free cash flow of American Bitcoin Corp is −$79.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC) carry?
The net debt of American Bitcoin Corp is $185M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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