American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.6B
American Bitcoin Corp
ABTC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 25, 2026, revised from $0.2000 to $1.35 (+575.0%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +10.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 79% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.01 to $2.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.5617 – $9,700 · fair‑value band $1.01 – $2.01 · the $6.47 price screens above the $1.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC) currently trades at $6.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.35, implying the stock looks roughly 79.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, American Bitcoin Corp generated revenue of $235M at a net margin of -57.2%. It earns a return on equity of -33.2%. Net debt stands at $185M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.01 (bear case) to $2.01 (bull case); at $6.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -79%, ABTC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
American Bitcoin Corp., a Bitcoin accumulation platform company, focuses on building a Bitcoin infrastructure platform. The company is engaged in the operation of application-specific integrated circuit miners for the purpose of mining Bitcoin and the strategic accumulation of a Bitcoin reserve. The company is based in Miami, Florida. American Bitcoin Corp.
Full company description
American Bitcoin Corp., a Bitcoin accumulation platform company, focuses on building a Bitcoin infrastructure platform. The company is engaged in the operation of application-specific integrated circuit miners for the purpose of mining Bitcoin and the strategic accumulation of a Bitcoin reserve. The company is based in Miami, Florida. American Bitcoin Corp. operates as a subsidiary of Hut 8 Corp.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American Bitcoin Corp reported revenue of $185M in FY2025 versus $17.6M in FY2021, a compound +80.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$153M in FY2025.
ABTC screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Huatai Securities Co →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 425 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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