Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Barrick Gold Corp stock C$54.65, price C$53.36, upside +2.4%, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$16.42 – C$70.96 · fair‑value band C$34.60 – C$76.40 · the C$53.36 price screens below the C$54.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Barrick Mining Corporation engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of mineral properties. It explores for gold, copper, silver, and energy materials. The company was formerly known as Barrick Gold Corporation and changed its name to Barrick Mining Corporation in May 2025.
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Barrick Mining Corporation was founded in 1983 and is based in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) currently trades at C$53.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$54.65, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$67.54 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$53.36 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at C$7.98, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$34.60 (bear) to C$76.40 (bull), the price of C$53.36 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Barrick Gold Corp reported revenue of $17.2B in FY2025 versus $12.0B in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was $5.1B in FY2025, compounding +25.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$88.9B (≈ $63.4B) Large · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 2.88 · EPS (TTM) C$5.49 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 29.6% · Return on equity 27.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 2%, ABX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$34.60Fair Value C$54.65BullC$76.40
Price C$53.36 · Upside +2.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$3.98 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.9% vs 18.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 47%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.7% a year for the price and +11.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Scale supports this gold producer's output capacity while limited moat signals leave margins exposed to metal price cycles.
Main risk: Dependence on the Tanzanian government partnership and mining licenses for the North Mara operation could expose the company to changes in terms or regulatory scrutiny that affect output and margins at that key asset.
Bull case: By leveraging its digital transformation and long-term Tanzanian partnership Barrick could stabilize North Mara output, lower costs through AI-driven efficiencies and expand production under the renewed licenses.
Bear case: If regulatory or legal pressures intensify around its Tanzanian assets Barrick might face production disruptions, higher costs or restricted access to certain gold markets, limiting cash generation from that operation.
The 15-year renewal of North Mara’s mining licenses in Tanzania removes a key tenure risk and opens the door for further investment in the operation. First-half attributable production at the mine dropped sharply year over year, however, while all-in sustaining costs rose. Will the longer horizon support steady output and stronger cash generation from the asset, or will regional operating challenges persist?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+2.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.0% · Above median
Return on assets9.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)31.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)51.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)43.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$54.65 versus a price of C$53.36, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ABX?
Our model-based fair value for Barrick Gold Corp is C$54.65 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$53.36.
What is the quality score of ABX?
Barrick Gold Corp has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$54.65 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$34.60, optimistic scenario C$76.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Barrick Gold Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$54.65, about +2% upside versus a price of C$53.36 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$34.60, optimistic scenario C$76.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
Barrick Gold Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $20.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Barrick Gold Corp pay a dividend?
Barrick Gold Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 1.22% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What growth is priced into Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Barrick Gold Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Oct 26, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ABX use?
Our models discount Barrick Gold Corp at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Barrick Gold Corp that is +3.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Barrick Gold Corp grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies +3.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Barrick Gold Corp (+3.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.61 %: that much free cash flow Barrick Gold Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Barrick Gold Corp it is C$54.65 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of C$53.36. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Barrick Gold Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, ABX trades below its calculated fair value: price C$53.36, fair value C$54.65, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ABX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$53.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$54.65). For Barrick Gold Corp the two are C$1.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Barrick Gold Corp worth?
The market values Barrick Gold Corp at about C$88.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is C$53.36; our models calculate a fair value of C$54.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ABX?
Our models span a range for Barrick Gold Corp: cautious scenario C$34.60, base C$54.65, optimistic C$76.40 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price C$53.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ABX?
Barrick Gold Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Oct 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$54.65 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 15.7 (reported for FY2025: 12.8). Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 2.4, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ABX?
The PEG ratio of Barrick Gold Corp is 2.04 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 26, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Barrick Gold Corp (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity 27.0%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ABX from its 52-week high?
Barrick Gold Corp trades at C$53.36, about 25% below its 52-week high of C$70.96 and 22% above the low of C$43.65 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$54.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Barrick Gold Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Barrick Gold Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price C$53.36, calculated fair value C$54.65 (+2%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ABX calculated?
We run Barrick Gold Corp through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$54.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Barrick Gold Corp currently trades 2 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was C$53.36. Our model-based fair value is C$54.65, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Barrick Gold Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (C$34.60 to C$76.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Barrick Gold Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
The market capitalisation of Barrick Gold Corp is C$88.9B (≈ $63.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Barrick Gold Corp is 2.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
Earnings per share at Barrick Gold Corp are C$5.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
The dividend yield of Barrick Gold Corp is 1.2% (payout 18.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 15.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
The net margin of Barrick Gold Corp is 29.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Barrick Gold Corp is 27.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Barrick Gold Corp is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
The operating margin of Barrick Gold Corp is 51.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
Revenue at Barrick Gold Corp is growing +43.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)?
Earnings per share at Barrick Gold Corp are growing +55.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) hold?
Barrick Gold Corp holds more cash than debt, $2.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 26, 2026