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Advenica AB (ADVE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Advenica AB SEK 6.57, price SEK 17.26, upside -61.9%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · SE · ISIN SE0006219473

AA Some data Sep 24, 2026

Advenica AB

ADVE · ST

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value kr 6.57 · Strongly overvalued (−62%)
!Quality 63/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +19.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·0.81% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 17 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 16 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 28.71 kr 7.31 Fair Value kr 6.57 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 7.31 – kr 28.71 · fair‑value band kr 4.68 – kr 9.56 · the kr 17.26 price screens above the kr 6.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Advenica AB (publ) develops and sells security solutions for defense and authority, and business customers in Sweden, Finland, and internationally.

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Advenica AB (publ) develops and sells security solutions for defense and authority, and business customers in Sweden, Finland, and internationally. The company offers data diodes, engine, services, and guards; ZoneGuard, a gateway for controlling two-way filtered information flow supporting third party control for enforcing digitally signed information policy; ZoneGuard Services; encryption systems; remote access devices, file security screeners; SecuriRAM, a self-erasing USB drive designed to transport a limited amount of information, file scanner kiosk; secure database replications; secure machine connections; and secure logging products and solutions. It serves defense, government, infrastructure, and industry sectors. Advenica AB (publ) was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.

Stock analysis

Advenica AB (ADVE) currently trades at kr 17.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 6.57, implying the stock looks roughly 162.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 12.13 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the kr 17.26 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 1.74, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: kr 4.68 (bear) to kr 9.56 (bull), the price of kr 17.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Advenica AB reported revenue of 203M SEK in FY2025 versus 101M SEK in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was 16.6M SEK in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 823M SEK (≈ $82.9M) · P/E ratio 156.9 · P/S ratio 12.8 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.1100 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −62%, ADVE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 4.68 Fair Value kr 6.57 Bull kr 9.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings kr 7.79 kr 12.13 kr 19.06 75
EPV kr 4.65 kr 4.94 kr 5.18 74
Residual Income kr 2.31 kr 2.67 kr 4.69 74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings kr 7.79 kr 12.13 kr 19.06 75
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 2.56 kr 15.01 kr 20.89 63
Lynch FV kr 4.25 kr 6.07 kr 7.89 61
PEG = 1.0 kr 4.25 kr 6.07 kr 7.89 57
EPV kr 4.65 kr 4.94 kr 5.18 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 7.91 kr 10.55 kr 13.19 63
P/S Multiple kr 4.80 kr 6.40 kr 8.01 58
P/B Multiple kr 4.80 kr 6.40 kr 8.01 55
EV/EBIT kr 9.07 kr 11.36 kr 13.65 66
EV/EBITDA kr 10.35 kr 13.07 kr 15.79 67
EV/Revenue kr 5.67 kr 7.16 kr 8.65 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 1.30 kr 1.74 kr 2.60 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 2.31 kr 2.67 kr 4.69 74
ROIC Compounder kr 4.83 kr 5.35 kr 5.89 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 7.22 kr 10.32 kr 13.41 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 66
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 83
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 29
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.3% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−22.0% (2020) → 8.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

ADVE screens 163% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 383 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside −62% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −34% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 156.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B 7.19× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.48× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 48
PAST (return on equity)17 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)16 · sector 33

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Microsoft Corporation MSFT $500.59 $550.65 +10%
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $192.59 $42.16 −78%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $139.54 $112.26 −20%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $374.57 $114.50 −69%
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $262.49 $35.15 −87%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $178.74 $164.92 −8%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $413.06 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $74.68 $101.29 +36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.90 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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kr 6.57 −163%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Advenica AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADVE

Frequently asked questions

Is Advenica AB (ADVE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 6.57 versus a price of kr 17.26, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADVE?
Our model-based fair value for Advenica AB is kr 6.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 17.26.
What is the quality score of ADVE?
Advenica AB has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Advenica AB (ADVE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 6.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 4.68, optimistic scenario kr 9.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Advenica AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 6.57, about −62% upside versus a price of kr 17.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 4.68, optimistic scenario kr 9.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
Advenica AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 184M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Advenica AB pay a dividend?
Advenica AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Advenica AB it is kr 6.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 17.26. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Advenica AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ADVE trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 17.26, fair value kr 6.57, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADVE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 17.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 6.57). For Advenica AB the two are kr 10.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Advenica AB worth?
The market values Advenica AB at about 823M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 17.26; our models calculate a fair value of kr 6.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADVE?
Our models span a range for Advenica AB: cautious scenario kr 4.68, base kr 6.57, optimistic kr 9.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 17.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADVE?
Advenica AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 156.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 6.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.2, P/S 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Advenica AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADVE from its 52-week high?
Advenica AB trades at kr 17.26, about 35% below its 52-week high of kr 26.50 and 26% above the low of kr 13.65 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 6.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Advenica AB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Advenica AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 17.26, calculated fair value kr 6.57 (−62%), Quality Score 63/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADVE calculated?
We run Advenica AB through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 6.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Advenica AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 17.26. Our model-based fair value is kr 6.57, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Advenica AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 9.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 4.68 to kr 9.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Advenica AB

How large is the market capitalisation of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
The market capitalisation of Advenica AB is 823M SEK (≈ $82.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Advenica AB is 12.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
Earnings per share at Advenica AB are kr 0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 156.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
The dividend yield of Advenica AB is 0.8% (payout 127%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
The net margin of Advenica AB is 8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Advenica AB is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Advenica AB is −1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Advenica AB (ADVE)?
The operating margin of Advenica AB is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Advenica AB (ADVE)?
Revenue at Advenica AB is growing −33.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Advenica AB (ADVE)?
Earnings per share at Advenica AB are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Advenica AB (ADVE) generate?
The free cash flow of Advenica AB is −2.8M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Advenica AB (ADVE) hold?
Advenica AB holds more cash than debt, 82.2M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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