Advenica AB (ADVE) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · SE · Market cap 823M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +0.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 9.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 6.45 – kr 28.71 · fair‑value band kr 5.65 – kr 9.42 · the kr 17.88 price screens above the kr 7.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Advenica AB (ADVE) currently trades at kr 17.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 7.53, implying the stock looks roughly 57.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Advenica AB generated revenue of 184M SEK at a net margin of 2.6%. Revenue declined 33.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 82.2M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 5.65 (bear case) to kr 9.42 (bull case); at kr 17.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -58%, ADVE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 13.01) versus Asset-Based (kr 1.74). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Advenica AB (publ) develops and sells security solutions for defense and authority, and business customers in Sweden, Finland, and internationally.
Full company description
Advenica AB (publ) develops and sells security solutions for defense and authority, and business customers in Sweden, Finland, and internationally. The company offers data diodes, engine, services, and guards; ZoneGuard, a gateway for controlling two-way filtered information flow supporting third party control for enforcing digitally signed information policy; ZoneGuard Services; encryption systems; remote access devices, file security screeners; SecuriRAM, a self-erasing USB drive designed to transport a limited amount of information, file scanner kiosk; secure database replications; secure machine connections; and secure logging products and solutions. It serves defense, government, infrastructure, and industry sectors. Advenica AB (publ) was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Advenica AB reported revenue of kr 203M in FY2025 versus kr 101M in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was kr 16.6M in FY2025.
ADVE screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 370 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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