Ameren Corporation (AEE) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $30.9B
Ameren Corporation
AEE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −5.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($98.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($51.89 to $98.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.91 – $118.32 · fair‑value band $51.89 – $98.70 · the $108.27 price screens above the $74.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Ameren Corporation (AEE) currently trades at $108.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $74.13, implying the stock looks roughly 31.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ameren Corporation generated revenue of $8.5B at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 3.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.8%. Net debt stands at $19.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $51.89 (bear case) to $98.70 (bull case); at $108.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -32%, AEE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($81.89) versus Earnings-Based ($7.44). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ameren Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission.
Full company description
Ameren Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission. It engages in the rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution business and natural gas transmission and distribution business. The company also generates electricity through coal, nuclear, and natural gas, as well as renewable energy, including hydroelectric, wind, methane gas, and solar energy centers. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Ameren Corporation was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ameren Corporation reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2025 versus $6.4B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.
AEE screens 32% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- How Investors Are Reacting To Ameren (AEE) Reaffirming Earnings Outlook And Massive Data Center Investment Plans
- Ameren Corp (AEE) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EPS Growth and Robust ...
- Ameren Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Decline Y/Y
- Ameren Q2 26 Earnings Conference Call At 10:00 AM ET
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $88.80 | $32.94 | -63% |
| The Southern Company SO | $95.61 | $61.06 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $126.11 | $97.11 | -23% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,377 ARS | -27% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $132.50 | $79.33 | -40% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $70.08 | $46.92 | -33% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹341.85 | ₹377.16 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 232.40 PLN | 159.33 PLN | -31% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹283.55 | ₹252.77 | -11% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.91 | ¥7.69 | -14% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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