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ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 4, 2026: fair value of ARC Resources Ltd $36.03, price $24.54, upside +46.8%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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AR
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
ARC Resources Ltd
AETUF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $36.03 · Undervalued (+46.8%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +41.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.3% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 70/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.10 – $24.75 · fair‑value band $18.22 – $49.24 · the $24.54 price screens below the $36.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
ARC Resources Ltd. acquires and develops crude oil, natural gas, condensate, and natural gas liquids in Canada. It primarily holds interests in the Montney assets located in Alberta and northeast British Columbia. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF) currently trades at $24.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.03, implying the stock looks roughly 31.9% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $37.08 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $24.54 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.86, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.22 (bear) to $49.24 (bull), the price of $24.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ARC Resources Ltd reported revenue of C$6.6B in FY2025 versus C$5.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +12.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.3B · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 2.61 · EPS (TTM) $1.81 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 19.3% · Return on equity 17.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 47%, AETUF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $18.22
Fair Value $36.03
Bull $49.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7637 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$22.77
$40.44
$90.85
74
EPV
$13.57
$16.34
$18.75
74
Residual Income
$10.50
$13.79
$21.61
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$22.77
$40.44
$90.85
74
Owner Earnings
$17.47
$43.59
$98.41
69
5Y Revenue Exit
$9.45
$17.17
$31.69
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$17.25
$34.10
$64.65
71
5Y P/E Exit
$15.94
$34.12
$57.15
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$13.05
$24.37
$36.42
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$18.83
$39.11
$75.21
64
10Y P/E Exit
$17.90
$36.63
$67.91
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$10.75
$74.94
$105.16
63
Lynch FV
$22.16
$31.65
$41.15
61
PEG = 1.0
$22.16
$31.65
$41.15
57
EPV
$13.57
$16.34
$18.75
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$5.05
$10.50
$16.66
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$5.05
$8.86
$11.02
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$16.59
$22.12
$27.65
63
P/S Multiple
$7.38
$9.83
$12.29
58
P/B Multiple
$13.83
$18.43
$23.04
55
EV/EBIT
$13.39
$18.85
$24.31
65
EV/EBITDA
$15.46
$21.61
$27.77
67
EV/Revenue
$3.88
$6.83
$9.78
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.12
$6.86
$10.24
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$21.58
$45.30
$90.44
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$9.45
$18.50
$31.89
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$10.50
$13.79
$21.61
74
ROIC Compounder
$16.24
$25.31
$32.37
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$25.96
$37.08
$48.21
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
65/100
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Profitability
52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
38
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.7% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.8% vs 9.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−58% → 27%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.3% a year for the price and −5.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+8.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−8.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)−7.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)−5.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)−4.5%
Watch AETUF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- ARC’s Full Senior Note Redemption Might Change The Case For Investing In ARC Resources (TSX:ARX)
- ARC RESOURCES LTD. ANNOUNCES REDEMPTION OF ALL OUTSTANDING SENIOR NOTES
- Shell Completes ARC Resources Deal to Drive Long-Term Growth
- Shell Completes $16.5-Billion Acquisition of ARC Resources
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 284 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $36.03 versus the last price from Sep 4, 2026 of $24.54, about +47% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AETUF?
Our model-based fair value for ARC Resources Ltd is $36.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 4, 2026): $24.54.
What is the quality score of AETUF?
ARC Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $36.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.22, optimistic scenario $49.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ARC Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $36.03, about +47% upside versus the last price from Sep 4, 2026 of $24.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $18.22, optimistic scenario $49.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
ARC Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$6.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does ARC Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
ARC Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ARC Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +41.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AETUF use?
Our models discount ARC Resources Ltd at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ARC Resources Ltd that is +4.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ARC Resources Ltd grew +41.3 % a year. The price currently implies +4.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ARC Resources Ltd (+4.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.91 %: that much free cash flow ARC Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ARC Resources Ltd it is $36.03 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $24.54. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ARC Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AETUF trades below its calculated fair value: price $24.54, fair value $36.03, a gap of about +47% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AETUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($36.03). For ARC Resources Ltd the two are $11.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ARC Resources Ltd worth?
The market values ARC Resources Ltd at about $14.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $24.54; our models calculate a fair value of $36.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AETUF?
Our models span a range for ARC Resources Ltd: cautious scenario $18.22, base $36.03, optimistic $49.24 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $24.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AETUF?
ARC Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $36.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ARC Resources Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 17.4%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AETUF from its 52-week high?
ARC Resources Ltd trades at $24.54, about 1% below its 52-week high of $24.75 and 48% above the low of $16.59 (as of Sep 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $36.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ARC Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ARC Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $24.54, calculated fair value $36.03 (+47%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AETUF calculated?
We run ARC Resources Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $36.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ARC Resources Ltd currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 4, 2026 and stands at $24.54. Our model-based fair value is $36.03, about +47% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ARC Resources Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($18.22 to $49.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF) come from?
Earnings per share at ARC Resources Ltd grew +11.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.6 %, EBIT margin +8.9 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ARC Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
The market capitalisation of ARC Resources Ltd is $14.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ARC Resources Ltd is 2.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
Earnings per share at ARC Resources Ltd are $1.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
The dividend yield of ARC Resources Ltd is 3.3% (payout 44.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
The net margin of ARC Resources Ltd is 19.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ARC Resources Ltd is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ARC Resources Ltd is 19.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
The operating margin of ARC Resources Ltd is 41.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
Revenue at ARC Resources Ltd is growing +19.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF)?
Earnings per share at ARC Resources Ltd are growing +49.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ARC Resources Ltd (AETUF) carry?
The net debt of ARC Resources Ltd is C$3.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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