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AECI Ltd (AFE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AECI Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
AECI Ltd
AFE · JSEOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value R66.34 · Overvalued (−34%)
!Quality 61/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +5.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 29/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R74.85 – R127.74 · fair‑value band R44.22 – R73.71 · the R100.67 price screens above the R66.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
AECI Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, provides products and services for mining, water treatment, plant and animal health, food and beverage, manufacturing, and general industrial sectors. The company operates through four segments: AECI Mining, AECI Chemicals, AECI Managed Businesses, and AECI Property Services and Corporate.
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AECI Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, provides products and services for mining, water treatment, plant and animal health, food and beverage, manufacturing, and general industrial sectors. The company operates through four segments: AECI Mining, AECI Chemicals, AECI Managed Businesses, and AECI Property Services and Corporate. The AECI Mining segment provides mine-to-mineral solutions for the mining sector, which includes commercial explosives, initiating systems, and blasting services, as well as surfactants for explosives manufacture. The AECI Chemicals segment supplies industrial and speciality chemical products; water treatment chemicals; and technology, equipment, and plant and crop protection products, as well as plant nutrients. The AECI Managed Businesses segment supplies products and services to customers in agriculture, industrial, manufacturing, road infrastructure, food and beverage, public water, and animal feed and products, as well as the textile sector. The AECI Property Services and Corporate segment offers property leasing and management services in the office, industrial, and retail sectors. It operates in South Africa, rest of the African continent, Europe, Asia, North America, South America, and Australia. AECI Ltd was founded in 1894 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Stock analysis
AECI Ltd (AFE) currently trades at R100.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R66.34, implying the stock looks roughly 51.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R266.90 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the R100.67 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R19.18, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R44.22 (bear) to R73.71 (bull), the price of R100.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
AECI Ltd reported revenue of 32.2B ZAR in FY2025 versus 26.1B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 366M ZAR in FY2025, compounding −25.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.7B ZAC · P/E ratio 28.5 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) R3.53 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −34%, AFE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R44.22
Fair Value R66.34
Bull R73.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.8801 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R179.12
R266.90
R397.38
77
Growth DCF
R182.89
R262.03
R373.33
76
Owner Earnings
R66.39
R96.47
R141.19
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R179.12
R266.90
R397.38
77
Owner Earnings
R66.39
R96.47
R141.19
74
5Y Revenue Exit
R193.19
R303.84
R443.40
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
R206.15
R327.61
R466.79
72
5Y P/E Exit
R93.58
R121.11
R148.17
70
10Y Revenue Exit
R180.33
R279.42
R408.85
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
R194.61
R295.76
R426.38
66
10Y P/E Exit
R123.40
R153.87
R187.53
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R23.59
R66.34
R87.29
63
Lynch FV
R13.43
R19.18
R24.94
59
PEG = 1.0
R13.43
R19.18
R24.94
55
EPV
R144.17
R166.93
R186.85
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R31.24
R64.95
R103.04
64
DDM Multi-Stage
R31.24
R49.48
R68.17
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R44.22
R58.97
R73.71
63
P/S Multiple
R44.22
R58.97
R73.71
58
P/B Multiple
R44.22
R58.97
R73.71
55
EV/EBIT
R243.05
R321.53
R400.01
66
EV/EBITDA
R248.92
R329.36
R409.79
67
EV/Revenue
R211.66
R299.11
R386.55
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R54.39
R72.89
R108.79
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R182.89
R262.03
R373.33
76
Rev-Margin DCF
R193.19
R304.15
R428.11
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R79.99
R79.11
R68.90
74
ROIC Compounder
R150.51
R187.35
R231.15
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R36.12
R51.60
R67.07
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Profitability
37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
75
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21% vs −9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 7%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
AFE screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $466.22 | $425.24 | −9% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $323.31 | $143.38 | −56% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $276.18 | $96.18 | −65% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $291.43 | $122.14 | −58% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 234.50 TWD | 306.47 TWD | +31% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,164 | CHF 1,523 | −52% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥74.50 | ¥68.03 | −9% |
| 500820 500820 | ₹2,470 | ₹393.15 | −84% |
| Sika AG SIKA | CHF 185.00 | CHF 98.89 | −47% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 427.30 | kr 383.60 | −10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is AECI Ltd (AFE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R66.34 versus a price of R100.67, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFE?
Our model-based fair value for AECI Ltd is R66.34 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R100.67.
What is the quality score of AFE?
AECI Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AECI Ltd (AFE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R66.34 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R44.22, optimistic scenario R73.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AECI Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R66.34, about −34% upside versus a price of R100.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R44.22, optimistic scenario R73.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
AECI Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 32.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does AECI Ltd pay a dividend?
AECI Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into AECI Ltd (AFE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AECI Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AFE use?
Our models discount AECI Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.05, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AECI Ltd that is -5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AECI Ltd (AFE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AECI Ltd grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies -5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AECI Ltd (AFE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AECI Ltd (-5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.21 %: that much free cash flow AECI Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AECI Ltd it is R66.34 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of R100.67. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AECI Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AFE trades above its calculated fair value: price R100.67, fair value R66.34, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R100.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R66.34). For AECI Ltd the two are R34.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AECI Ltd worth?
The market values AECI Ltd at about 12.7B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is R100.67; our models calculate a fair value of R66.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFE?
Our models span a range for AECI Ltd: cautious scenario R44.22, base R66.34, optimistic R73.71 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price R100.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to AECI Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AECI Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price R100.67, calculated fair value R66.34 (−34%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFE calculated?
We run AECI Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R66.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. AECI Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with AECI Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R73.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of AECI Ltd (AFE) come from?
Earnings per share at AECI Ltd grew −1.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate −4.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AECI Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
The market capitalisation of AECI Ltd is 12.7B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of AECI Ltd is 28.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AECI Ltd is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
Earnings per share at AECI Ltd are R3.53 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
The dividend yield of AECI Ltd is 2.3% (payout 64.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
The net margin of AECI Ltd is 1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AECI Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AECI Ltd is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AECI Ltd (AFE)?
The operating margin of AECI Ltd is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AECI Ltd (AFE)?
Revenue at AECI Ltd is growing −2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AECI Ltd (AFE)?
Earnings per share at AECI Ltd are growing +27.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AECI Ltd (AFE) carry?
The net debt of AECI Ltd is 831M ZAC (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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