Air Products and Chemicals, Inc (APD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $66.7B
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc
APD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $126.09 to $253.26 (+100.9%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −1.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($138.10 to $412.86). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $194.54 – $325.22 · fair‑value band $138.10 – $412.86 · the $299.92 price screens above the $253.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc (APD) currently trades at $299.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $253.26, implying the stock looks roughly 15.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc generated revenue of $12.5B at a net margin of 16.9%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.4%. Net debt stands at $16.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $138.10 (bear case) to $412.86 (bull case); at $299.92, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -16%, APD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($97.32) versus Asset-Based ($45.21). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. provides atmospheric gases, process and specialty gases, equipment, and related services in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, India, and internationally.
Full company description
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. provides atmospheric gases, process and specialty gases, equipment, and related services in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, India, and internationally. The company produces atmospheric gases, including oxygen, nitrogen, and argon; process gases, such as hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and syngas; and specialty gases for customers in various industries, including refining, chemical, metals, manufacturing, electronics, energy production, medical, food, chemical and petrochemical manufacturing, oil and gas recovery and processing, and steel and primary metals processing. It also designs and manufactures equipment for air separation, hydrocarbon recovery and purification, natural gas liquefaction, and liquid helium and liquid hydrogen transport and storage. Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc reported revenue of $12.0B in FY2025 versus $10.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$395M in FY2025.
APD screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Air Products (APD) Stock Looks Undervalued On Cash Flow But Overvalued On Sales
- Is Air Products And Chemicals (APD) Undervalued After Its Earnings Beat And Raised Outlook?
- Is NEOM Charges, Raised EPS Guidance and Yara Deal Altering The Investment Case For Air Products (APD)?
- Air Products and Chemicals Inc (APD) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: EPS Beats Guidance, ...
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 680 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $520.74 | $226.27 | -57% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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