Ecolab Inc (ECL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Ecolab Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Basic Materials · US · Market cap $79.3B · ISIN US2788651006
At a glance
EIEcolab IncECL · US
Price$278.11
Fair Value$96.18
Upside−65.4%
Quality62/100
A solid business, but trading 189% above our fair value of $96.18.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Ecolab Inc is $96.18 per share against a price of $278.11, so the fair value sits 65% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.8% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.99% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
✓Wide moat 77/100
!Weak on dividend: 20 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange $56.66 to $128.03
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −2.5% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($128.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range ($56.66 to $128.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $126.04 – $306.69 · fair‑value band $56.66 – $128.03 · the $278.11 price screens above the $96.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
Ecolab Inc (ECL) currently trades at $278.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $96.18, implying the stock looks roughly 189.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $118.35 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $278.11 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $23.26, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ecolab Inc generated revenue of $16.5B at a net margin of 12.8%. Revenue grew 10.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.4%. Net debt stands at $8.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: $56.66 (bear) to $128.03 (bull), the price of $278.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −57% fair-value upside, at −65%, ECL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.22 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio37.7
P/S ratio4.86P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$7.38price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.7
Dividend yield1.0%payout 37.4%
Net margin12.9%FY2025
Return on equity22.4%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)9.8%avg 5y
Operating margin16.9%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$16.5BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+10.0%3y avg +4.3%
EPS growth (YoY)+7.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$1.9BFY2025
Net debt$8.8BFY2025 · ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality62/100
Of which business quality 59
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Profitability57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance85
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ecolab Inc. provides water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Global Water, Global Institutional & Specialty, Global Pest Elimination, and Global Life Sciences.
Full company description
Ecolab Inc. provides water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Global Water, Global Institutional & Specialty, Global Pest Elimination, and Global Life Sciences. The Global Water segment offers water treatment and process applications, and cleaning and sanitizing solutions to manufacturing, food and beverage processing, transportation, chemical, primary metals and mining, power generation, global refining, petrochemical, pulp and paper industries. The Global Institutional & Specialty segment provides cleaning and sanitizing products to the foodservice, healthcare, hospitality, lodging, government, education and retail industries. The Global Pest Elimination segment provides pest elimination services to detect, prevent, and eliminate pests comprising rodents and insects in full-service and quick-service restaurants, food and beverage processors, hotels, grocery operations, and other commercial segments, including education, life sciences, and healthcare. The Global Life Sciences segment provides cleaning and contamination control solutions to pharmaceutical and personal care manufacturers. It offers its products under the Ecolab, Kay, Purolite, and Bioquell brand names. The company sells its products through field sales and corporate account personnel, distributors, and dealers. Ecolab Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ecolab Inc reported revenue of $16.1B in FY2025 versus $12.7B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding +16.4%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$16.1B
Latest YoY
+2.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+8.8%
Dividend yield1.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 9.5% vs 10Y 6.4%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14.5% (2020) → 18.1% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop173% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue+6.0%/yr
FY21$12.7B
FY22$14.2B
FY23$15.3B
FY24$15.7B
FY25$16.1B
Net income+16.4%/yr
FY21$1.1B
FY22$1.1B
FY23$1.4B
FY24$2.1B
FY25$2.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+6.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share+2.2 %
of which total revenue +1.6 % · buybacks/dilution +0.6 %
EBIT margin+1.2 %
Tax rate+1.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+1.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−66% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.75× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)37.7× · Pricier than median
P/B7.90× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.69× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF40.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.55× · Priciest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Ecolab Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+17.3 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+6.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.2 %
FCF yield on price2.40 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.0 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 0
FUTURE50· sector 21
PAST90· sector 23
HEALTH62· sector 95
DIVIDEND20· sector 28
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $96.18 versus a price of $278.11, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ECL?
Our model-based fair value for Ecolab Inc is $96.18 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $278.11.
What is the quality score of ECL?
Ecolab Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ecolab Inc (ECL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $96.18 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $56.66, optimistic scenario $128.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ecolab Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $96.18, about −65% upside versus a price of $278.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $56.66, optimistic scenario $128.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ecolab Inc (ECL)?
Ecolab Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ECL?
The net profit margin of Ecolab Inc is about 12.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Ecolab Inc pay a dividend?
Ecolab Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ecolab Inc (ECL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ecolab Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.0 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ECL use?
Our models discount Ecolab Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Ecolab Inc (ECL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ecolab Inc it is $96.18 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026), against a price of $278.11. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ecolab Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 7, 2026, ECL trades above its calculated fair value: price $278.11, fair value $96.18, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($278.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($96.18). For Ecolab Inc the two are $181.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ecolab Inc worth?
The market values Ecolab Inc at about $79.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 7, 2026). Per share that is $278.11; our models calculate a fair value of $96.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECL?
Our models span a range for Ecolab Inc: cautious scenario $56.66, base $96.18, optimistic $128.03 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026, price $278.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ECL?
Ecolab Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.7 (as of Sep 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $96.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 7.9, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 20.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ECL?
The PEG ratio of Ecolab Inc is 2.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ecolab Inc (ECL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ecolab Inc (as of Sep 7, 2026): return on equity 22.4%, debt of 0.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ECL from its 52-week high?
Ecolab Inc trades at $278.11, about 10% below its 52-week high of $308.44 and 14% above the low of $243.15 (as of Sep 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $96.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ecolab Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, Givaudan SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ecolab Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 7, 2026: price $278.11, calculated fair value $96.18 (−65%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECL calculated?
We run Ecolab Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $96.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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Ecolab Inc
ECL · US