Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Austral Gold Ltd C$0.14, price C$0.15, upside -6.7%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.0200 – C$0.2300 · fair‑value band C$0.1000 – C$0.1800 · the C$0.1500 price screens above the C$0.1400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Austral Gold Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, production, and mining of gold and silver deposits in Chile, Argentina, and internationally. It explores gold and silver.
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Austral Gold Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, production, and mining of gold and silver deposits in Chile, Argentina, and internationally. It explores gold and silver. The company holds 100% interest in the Guanaco/Amancaya Mine Complex located to the southeast of Antofagasta in Northern Chile; and Casposo/Manantiales Mine Complex located in in Argentina. It is also involved in Paleocene Belt exploration project located in Chile; and Triassic Choiyoi Belt exploration project located in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Diamond Rose NL and changed its name to Austral Gold Limited in November 2006. Austral Gold Limited was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Sydney, Australia. Austral Gold Limited operates as a subsidiary of Inversiones Financieras Del Sur S.A.
Stock analysis
Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD) currently trades at C$0.1500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.1400, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$0.4100 per share, and 13 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$0.1500 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$0.0400, and 9 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.1000 (bear) to C$0.1800 (bull), the price of C$0.1500 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Austral Gold Ltd reported revenue of $51.2M in FY2025 versus $64.4M in FY2021, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $14.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$93.2M (≈ $65.7M) · P/E ratio 5.0 · P/S ratio 1.44 · EPS (TTM) C$0.0300 · Net margin 28.8% · Return on equity 66.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.5% · Operating margin 18.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 233% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −7%, AGLD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$0.1000Fair Value C$0.1400Bull C$0.1800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.0224 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 11%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 17.0%/yr over ~7Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+55.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +51.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−6.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)66.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)28.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)18.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth84.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.1400 versus a price of C$0.1500, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AGLD?
Our model-based fair value for Austral Gold Ltd is C$0.1400 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$0.1500.
What is the quality score of AGLD?
Austral Gold Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.1400 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.1000, optimistic scenario C$0.1800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Austral Gold Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.1400, about −7% upside versus a price of C$0.1500 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$0.1000, optimistic scenario C$0.1800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
Austral Gold Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $51.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Austral Gold Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +55.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -14.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGLD use?
Our models discount Austral Gold Ltd at 15.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.89, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Austral Gold Ltd that is +55.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Austral Gold Ltd grew -14.9 % a year. The price currently implies +55.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Austral Gold Ltd (+55.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.33 %: that much free cash flow Austral Gold Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Austral Gold Ltd it is C$0.1400 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$0.1500. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Austral Gold Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, AGLD trades above its calculated fair value: price C$0.1500, fair value C$0.1400, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.1500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.1400). For Austral Gold Ltd the two are C$0.0100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Austral Gold Ltd worth?
The market values Austral Gold Ltd at about C$93.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$0.1500; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.1400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGLD?
Our models span a range for Austral Gold Ltd: cautious scenario C$0.1000, base C$0.1400, optimistic C$0.1800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$0.1500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGLD?
Austral Gold Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$0.1400 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Austral Gold Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 66.8%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGLD from its 52-week high?
Austral Gold Ltd trades at C$0.1500, about 35% below its 52-week high of C$0.2300 and 233% above the low of C$0.0450 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.1400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Austral Gold Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Austral Gold Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$0.1500, calculated fair value C$0.1400 (−7%), Quality Score 58/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGLD calculated?
We run Austral Gold Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.1400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Austral Gold Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$0.1500. Our model-based fair value is C$0.1400, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Austral Gold Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Austral Gold Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
The market capitalisation of Austral Gold Ltd is C$93.2M (≈ $65.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Austral Gold Ltd is 1.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
Earnings per share at Austral Gold Ltd are C$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
The net margin of Austral Gold Ltd is 28.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Austral Gold Ltd is 66.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Austral Gold Ltd is −9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
The operating margin of Austral Gold Ltd is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
Revenue at Austral Gold Ltd is growing +84.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD)?
Earnings per share at Austral Gold Ltd are growing −65.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Austral Gold Ltd (AGLD) carry?
The net debt of Austral Gold Ltd is $15.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026