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Data-driven stock valuation

Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Assured Guaranty Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.6B · ISIN BMG0585R1060

At a glance

AG Assured Guaranty Ltd logo Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO · US
Price$72.21
Fair Value$148.92
Upside+106.2%
Quality67/100

A solid business, trading 52% below our fair value of $148.92.

As of Sep 3, 2026, the fair value of Assured Guaranty Ltd is $148.92 per share against a price of $72.21, so the fair value sits 106% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −6.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 51.0% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.94% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Moderate moat 63/100
Evidence: High Range $111.69 to $186.15

Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from $151.82 to $148.92 (−1.9%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −4.9% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($111.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$93.09 $41.31 Fair Value $148.92 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $41.31 – $93.09 · fair‑value band $111.69 – $186.15 · the $72.21 price screens below the $148.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

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Analysis

Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) currently trades at $72.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $148.92, implying the stock looks roughly 51.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $147.67 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $72.21 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $19.77, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Assured Guaranty Ltd generated revenue of $814M at a net margin of 51.0%. Revenue declined 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026

Scenario range: $111.69 (bear) to $186.15 (bull), the price of $72.21 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 106%, AGO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.06 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $107.01 $115.84 $145.76 74
Gordon GGM $13.49 $23.06 $34.34 65
DDM Multi-Stage $13.49 $19.77 $26.39 65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $13.49 $23.06 $34.34 65
DDM Multi-Stage $13.49 $19.77 $26.39 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $110.75 $147.67 $184.58 63
P/B Multiple $134.28 $179.04 $223.80 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $63.94 $85.68 $127.88 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $107.01 $115.84 $145.76 74

Widest divergence: Multiples ($147.67) versus Dividend Discount ($19.77). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 8.4
P/S ratio 5.35 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $8.62 price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4
Dividend yield 1.9% payout 16.2%
Net margin 63.8% FY2025
Return on equity 7.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 24.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $814M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −6.2% 3y avg +4.8%
EPS growth (YoY) −44.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $259M FY2025
Net debt $1.3B FY2025 · ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments.

Full company description

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Assured Guaranty Ltd reported revenue of $788M in FY2025 versus $698M in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was $503M in FY2025, compounding +6.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$788M
Latest YoY
−3.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+21.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+19.4%
Dividend yield1.9%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 19.4% vs 10Y 4.5%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30.6% (2020) → 84.0% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop86% (2012) · in USD
Revenue +3.1%/yr
FY21 $698M
FY22 $684M
FY23 $1.4B
FY24 $814M
FY25 $788M
Net income +6.6%/yr
FY21 $389M
FY22 $124M
FY23 $457M
FY24 $376M
FY25 $503M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +2.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.6 %

of which total revenue −5.8 % · buybacks/dilution +12.1 %

EBIT margin −4.4 %
Tax rate +0.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Assured Guaranty Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGO

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Insurance - Specialty · 30 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 68 · Above median
Fair Value upside +97% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 51% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.30× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.65× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.50× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 14.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.33× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Assured Guaranty Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-1.7 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-6.2 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.1 %
FCF yield on price7.26 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.1 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 34
FUTURE0 · sector 24
PAST32 · sector 60
HEALTH85 · sector 92
DIVIDEND39 · sector 52

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF $44.65 $29.08 −35%
Medibank Private Limited MPL A$4.66 A$1.65 −65%
AXIS Capital Holdings AXS $99.80 $139.49 +40%
First American Financial Corporation FAF $73.59 $64.26 −13%
Enact Holdings ACT $49.27 $58.14 +18%
MGIC Investment Corporation MTG $31.01 $39.71 +28%
Essent Group ESNT $69.18 $91.14 +32%
Radian Group RDN $35.80 $53.56 +50%
Protector Forsikring ASA PROT kr 475.40 kr 273.28 −43%
NMI Holdings NMIH $44.83 $56.53 +26%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $148.92 versus a price of $72.21, about +106% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGO?
Our model-based fair value for Assured Guaranty Ltd is $148.92 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $72.21.
What is the quality score of AGO?
Assured Guaranty Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $148.92 (as of Sep 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $111.69, optimistic scenario $186.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Assured Guaranty Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $148.92, about +106% upside versus a price of $72.21 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $111.69, optimistic scenario $186.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Assured Guaranty Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $814M (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AGO?
The net profit margin of Assured Guaranty Ltd is about 51.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 51.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Assured Guaranty Ltd pay a dividend?
Assured Guaranty Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Assured Guaranty Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -1.7 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.2 % per year. As of Sep 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGO use?
Our models discount Assured Guaranty Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Assured Guaranty Ltd it is $148.92 per share (as of Sep 3, 2026), against a price of $72.21. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 3, 2026, AGO trades below its calculated fair value: price $72.21, fair value $148.92, a gap of about +106% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($72.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($148.92). For Assured Guaranty Ltd the two are $76.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Assured Guaranty Ltd worth?
The market values Assured Guaranty Ltd at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 3, 2026). Per share that is $72.21; our models calculate a fair value of $148.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGO?
Our models span a range for Assured Guaranty Ltd: cautious scenario $111.69, base $148.92, optimistic $186.15 per share (as of Sep 3, 2026, price $72.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGO?
Assured Guaranty Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Sep 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $148.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.7, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AGO?
The PEG ratio of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 0.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Assured Guaranty Ltd (as of Sep 3, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGO from its 52-week high?
Assured Guaranty Ltd trades at $72.21, about 21% below its 52-week high of $91.54 (as of Sep 3, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $148.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Assured Guaranty Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, Medibank Private Limited, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 3, 2026: price $72.21, calculated fair value $148.92 (+106%), Quality Score 67/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGO calculated?
We run Assured Guaranty Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $148.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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