Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Assured Guaranty Ltd stock $119, price $73.45, upside +62.7%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $42.10 – $92.62 · fair‑value band $89.61 – $143.79 · the $73.45 price screens below the $119.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments.
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The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments.
It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance.
In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds.
Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products.
Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services.
It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) currently trades at $73.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $119.47, implying the stock looks roughly 39% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $121.21 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $73.45 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $23.69, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $89.61 (bear) to $143.79 (bull), the price of $73.45 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Assured Guaranty Ltd reported revenue of $788M in FY2025 versus $698M in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was $503M in FY2025, compounding +6.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B Mid · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 4.03 · EPS (TTM) $7.51 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 43.2% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 63%, AGO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$89.61Fair Value $119.47Bull$143.79
Price $73.45 · Upside +62.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.19 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.0M and none bought.
SaleLorin RadtkeDirector2× since Mar 4, 2026: 2,266 shares, avg. $81.22$184,037May 29, 2026
SaleRobert BailensonChief Operating Officer50,000 shares at $78.62$3.9MMay 11, 2026
SaleFrancisco L BorgesDirector123,750 shares at $80.22$9.9MMar 30, 2026
SaleDominic FredericoPresident/CEO/Deputy Chairman, Director2× since Mar 20, 2026: 50,000 shares, avg. $81.27$4.1MMar 23, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
≈ +23.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +21.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.4% vs 4.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 84%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 4.20 per share, median 9.76 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.6% a year for the price and −2.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat potential from capital commitments in bond restructurings forms the main strength, while the primary weakness is resources locked in extended workouts that may delay returns.
Main risk: Extended workouts from backing guarantees in restructurings risk tying up capital for long periods and reducing flexibility in the insurance book.
Assured Guaranty backs its bond guarantees with new capital commitments during restructurings, as it did recently for Brightline Florida where the insured senior obligations stayed fully protected outside the filing. Such moves can unlock extra returns on its insurance book but also lock up resources in extended workouts. Will the participation income ultimately add more to earnings stability than it subtracts through tied capital and potential delays?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Specialty · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Above median
Fair Value upside+62.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.7% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets4.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)43.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)42.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.8× · Pricier than median
P/B0.58× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.03× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.7× · Cheaper than median
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Is Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $119.47 versus a price of $73.45, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGO?
Our model-based fair value for Assured Guaranty Ltd is $119.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $73.45.
What is the quality score of AGO?
Assured Guaranty Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $119.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $89.61, optimistic scenario $143.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Assured Guaranty Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $119.47, about +63% upside versus a price of $73.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $89.61, optimistic scenario $143.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Assured Guaranty Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $813M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Assured Guaranty Ltd pay a dividend?
Assured Guaranty Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.96% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Assured Guaranty Ltd pays a dividend of $1.44 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 20, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2004. The payout ratio is 17.8% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 19.2%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.09 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Assured Guaranty Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGO use?
Our models discount Assured Guaranty Ltd at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Assured Guaranty Ltd that is -5.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Assured Guaranty Ltd grew -6.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -5.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Assured Guaranty Ltd (-5.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.91 %: that much free cash flow Assured Guaranty Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Assured Guaranty Ltd it is $119.47 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $73.45. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AGO trades below its calculated fair value: price $73.45, fair value $119.47, a gap of about +63% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($73.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($119.47). For Assured Guaranty Ltd the two are $46.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Assured Guaranty Ltd worth?
The market values Assured Guaranty Ltd at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $73.45; our models calculate a fair value of $119.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGO?
Our models span a range for Assured Guaranty Ltd: cautious scenario $89.61, base $119.47, optimistic $143.79 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $73.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGO?
Assured Guaranty Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $119.47 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 6.7 (reported for FY2025: 7.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 8.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.6, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
What is the PEG ratio of AGO?
The PEG ratio of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 0.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Assured Guaranty Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGO from its 52-week high?
Assured Guaranty Ltd trades at $73.45, about 19% below its 52-week high of $90.86 and 8% above the low of $67.72 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $119.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Assured Guaranty Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, Medibank Private Limited, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $73.45, calculated fair value $119.47 (+63%), Quality Score 70/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGO calculated?
We run Assured Guaranty Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $119.47 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Assured Guaranty Ltd currently trades 39% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $73.45. Our model-based fair value is $119.47, about +63% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Assured Guaranty Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($89.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (70/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) come from?
Earnings per share at Assured Guaranty Ltd grew +2.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Assured Guaranty Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The market capitalisation of Assured Guaranty Ltd is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 4.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Earnings per share at Assured Guaranty Ltd are $7.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The dividend yield of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 2.0% (payout 17.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 19.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The net margin of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 43.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The operating margin of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 42.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Revenue at Assured Guaranty Ltd is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Earnings per share at Assured Guaranty Ltd are growing −57.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) carry?
The net debt of Assured Guaranty Ltd is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026