Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.7B

A solid business, screening 96% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($110.75). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $41.31 – $93.09 · fair‑value band $110.75 – $184.58 · the $75.43 price screens below the $147.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) currently trades at $75.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $147.67, implying the stock looks roughly 95.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Assured Guaranty Ltd generated revenue of $814M at a net margin of 51.0%. Revenue declined 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $110.75 (bear case) to $184.58 (bull case); at $75.43, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at 96%, AGO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($147.67) versus Dividend Discount ($19.77). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments.

Full company description

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Assured Guaranty Ltd reported revenue of $788M in FY2025 versus $698M in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was $503M in FY2025, compounding +6.6%/yr from FY2021.

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Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• KBRA Affirms Assured Guaranty’s AA+ Insurance Financial Strength Ratings with Stable Outlook Yahoo Finance · Aug 5, 2026
• Assured Guaranty Ltd. to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 6, 2026 Yahoo Finance · Jul 23, 2026
• S&P Affirms Assured Guaranty’s AA Financial Strength Ratings With Stable Outlook Yahoo Finance · Jul 21, 2026

Peer Group

Insurance - Specialty · 32 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.