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Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Assured Guaranty Ltd $118, price $68.99, upside +71.0%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN BMG0585R1060

AG Assured Guaranty Ltd logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Assured Guaranty Ltd

AGO · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $117.95 · Strongly undervalued (+71%)
✓Quality 67/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −3.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 51.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.03% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Moderate moat 63/100
!Insider activity 46/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$93.09 $41.31 Fair Value $117.95 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $41.31 – $93.09 · fair‑value band $108.37 – $158.21 · the $68.99 price screens below the $117.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Stock analysis

Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) currently trades at $68.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $117.95, implying the stock looks roughly 41.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $147.67 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $68.99 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $19.77, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $108.37 (bear) to $158.21 (bull), the price of $68.99 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Assured Guaranty Ltd reported revenue of $788M in FY2025 versus $698M in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was $503M in FY2025, compounding +6.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.4B · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 5.11 · EPS (TTM) $8.62 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 63.8% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 71%, AGO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $108.37 Fair Value $117.95 Bull $158.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.36 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $107.01 $115.84 $145.76 74
Gordon GGM $13.49 $23.06 $34.34 65
DDM Multi-Stage $13.49 $19.77 $26.39 65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $13.49 $23.06 $34.34 65
DDM Multi-Stage $13.49 $19.77 $26.39 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $110.75 $147.67 $184.58 63
P/B Multiple $134.28 $179.04 $223.80 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $63.94 $85.68 $127.88 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $107.01 $115.84 $145.76 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+21.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 84%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.1% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−1.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)−0.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)−0.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)0.0%

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Specialty · 30 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 68 · Above median
Fair Value upside +67% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 51% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.30× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.62× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.29× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 13.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.33× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 62
HEALTH (low debt)85 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)41 · sector 57

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF $42.55 $29.08 −32%
Medibank Private Limited MPL A$4.56 A$1.65 −64%
AXIS Capital Holdings AXS $96.28 $125.88 +31%
First American Financial Corporation FAF $69.24 $52.74 −24%
Enact Holdings ACT $47.61 $45.58 −4%
MGIC Investment Corporation MTG $29.29 $31.40 +7%
Essent Group ESNT $65.70 $68.42 +4%
Radian Group RDN $34.69 $39.97 +15%
Protector Forsikring ASA PROT kr 435.20 kr 288.36 −34%
NMI Holdings NMIH $42.42 $46.94 +11%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Assured Guaranty Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGO

Frequently asked questions

Is Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $117.95 versus a price of $68.99, about +71% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGO?
Our model-based fair value for Assured Guaranty Ltd is $117.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $68.99.
What is the quality score of AGO?
Assured Guaranty Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $117.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $108.37, optimistic scenario $158.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Assured Guaranty Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $117.95, about +71% upside versus a price of $68.99 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $108.37, optimistic scenario $158.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Assured Guaranty Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $814M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Assured Guaranty Ltd pay a dividend?
Assured Guaranty Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Assured Guaranty Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -3.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGO use?
Our models discount Assured Guaranty Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Assured Guaranty Ltd that is -3.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Assured Guaranty Ltd grew -6.2 % a year. The price currently implies -3.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Assured Guaranty Ltd (-3.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.60 %: that much free cash flow Assured Guaranty Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Assured Guaranty Ltd it is $117.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $68.99. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AGO trades below its calculated fair value: price $68.99, fair value $117.95, a gap of about +71% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($68.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($117.95). For Assured Guaranty Ltd the two are $48.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Assured Guaranty Ltd worth?
The market values Assured Guaranty Ltd at about $3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $68.99; our models calculate a fair value of $117.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGO?
Our models span a range for Assured Guaranty Ltd: cautious scenario $108.37, base $117.95, optimistic $158.21 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $68.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGO?
Assured Guaranty Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $117.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.6, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of AGO?
The PEG ratio of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 0.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Assured Guaranty Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGO from its 52-week high?
Assured Guaranty Ltd trades at $68.99, about 25% below its 52-week high of $91.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $117.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Assured Guaranty Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, Medibank Private Limited, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $68.99, calculated fair value $117.95 (+71%), Quality Score 67/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGO calculated?
We run Assured Guaranty Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $117.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Assured Guaranty Ltd currently trades 71 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $68.99. Our model-based fair value is $117.95, about +71% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Assured Guaranty Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($108.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) come from?
Earnings per share at Assured Guaranty Ltd grew +2.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Assured Guaranty Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The market capitalisation of Assured Guaranty Ltd is $3.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 5.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Earnings per share at Assured Guaranty Ltd are $8.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The dividend yield of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 2.0% (payout 16.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The net margin of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 63.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
The operating margin of Assured Guaranty Ltd is 24.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Revenue at Assured Guaranty Ltd is growing −6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)?
Earnings per share at Assured Guaranty Ltd are growing −44.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) carry?
The net debt of Assured Guaranty Ltd is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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