Radian Group Inc (RDN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Radian Group Inc stock $40.29, price $35.97, upside +12.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.73 – $39.43 · fair‑value band $34.53 – $52.93 · the $35.97 price screens below the $40.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Radian Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mortgage insurance in the United States.
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It aggregates, manages, and distributes mortgage credit risk for the benefit of mortgage lending institutions and mortgage credit investors through private mortgage insurance on residential first-lien mortgage loans.
The company also offers private mortgage insurance, specialty insurance, and reinsurance lines. It serves mortgage originators, such as mortgage banks, commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, and community banks.
The company was formerly known as CMAC Investment Corp. and changed its name to Radian Group Inc. in June 1999. Radian Group Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Radian Group Inc (RDN) currently trades at $35.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.29, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $48.14 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $35.97 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $16.29, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $34.53 (bear) to $52.93 (bull), the price of $35.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Radian Group Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $583M in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.9B Mid · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 2.49 · EPS (TTM) $4.22 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 28.3% · Return on equity 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 74 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 12%, RDN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$34.53Fair Value $40.29Bull$52.93
Price $35.97 · Upside +12.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.74 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $5.8M, on Jun 2, 2026. Over the same period, 7 people sold shares worth $2.0M.
SaleStephen KeleherSr EVP Co-Head Radian Guaranty8,000 shares at $38.58$308,600Nov 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMeghan BartholomewSr EVP Co-Head Radian Guaranty2× since Jun 3, 2026: 7,813 shares, avg. $35.94$280,796Sep 14, 2026
SaleEdward J HoffmanSr EVP, General Counsel6× since Apr 10, 2026: 80,000 shares, avg. $37.13$3.0MJul 14, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBrad L. ConnerDirector1,200 shares at $33.93$40,716Jun 3, 2026
BuyMichael S WeinbachChief Executive Officer- Elect170,000 shares at $33.93$5.8MJun 2, 2026
SaleMargaret Anne LeydenDirector2,070 shares at $34.59$71,601May 29, 2026
SaleHoward Bernard CulangDirector2× since May 26, 2026: 8,612 shares, avg. $36.12$311,032May 27, 2026
SaleNoel Joseph SpiegelDirector4,834 shares at $36.19$174,942May 26, 2026
SaleEric RaySr EVP, Chief Digital Officer13,957 shares at $35.60$496,869Dec 2, 2025
Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.4% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.0% vs 12.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 61%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.3% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Mortgage insurance delivers reliable capital generation via high persistency, yet limited signals of durable advantages leave the business exposed to cyclical housing influences.
Main risk: Cyclical housing factors could pressure margins in the core mortgage insurance segment if persistency weakens or new business volumes decline.
Radian has sold its real estate services business and agreed to divest its title operations, completing the exit from non-core units after acquiring Inigo. Its mortgage insurance segment keeps delivering strong persistency at 82 percent and reliable capital generation, while specialty earned premiums are guided to rise 20 percent in the second half of the year. Will the mortgage business continue to anchor returns, or will the specialty lines add enough scale and margin to offset any integration friction?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Specialty · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Below median
Fair Value upside+12.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.4% · Below median
Return on assets7.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)28.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)40.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)105.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Radian Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RDN
Frequently asked questions
Is Radian Group Inc (RDN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.29 versus a price of $35.97, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RDN?
Our model-based fair value for Radian Group Inc is $40.29 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.97.
What is the quality score of RDN?
Radian Group Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.29 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.53, optimistic scenario $52.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Radian Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.29, about +12% upside versus a price of $35.97 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $34.53, optimistic scenario $52.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
Radian Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Radian Group Inc pay a dividend?
Radian Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Radian Group Inc (RDN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Radian Group Inc pays a dividend of $1.02 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 24, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. The payout ratio is 24.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.87 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Radian Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.8 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RDN use?
Our models discount Radian Group Inc at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Radian Group Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Radian Group Inc (RDN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Radian Group Inc grew -2.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of less than minus 40 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Radian Group Inc (RDN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Radian Group Inc (less than minus 40 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.36 %: that much free cash flow Radian Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Radian Group Inc it is $40.29 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $35.97. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Radian Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, RDN trades below its calculated fair value: price $35.97, fair value $40.29, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RDN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.29). For Radian Group Inc the two are $4.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Radian Group Inc worth?
The market values Radian Group Inc at about $4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $35.97; our models calculate a fair value of $40.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RDN?
Our models span a range for Radian Group Inc: cautious scenario $34.53, base $40.29, optimistic $52.93 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $35.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RDN?
Radian Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.29 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2017, FY2023, FY2025 ex one-offs: 8.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.0, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of RDN?
The PEG ratio of Radian Group Inc is 0.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Radian Group Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 12.4%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RDN from its 52-week high?
Radian Group Inc trades at $35.97, about 9% below its 52-week high of $39.43 and 18% above the low of $30.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Radian Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, Medibank Private Limited, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Radian Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $35.97, calculated fair value $40.29 (+12%), Quality Score 62/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RDN calculated?
We run Radian Group Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $40.29 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Radian Group Inc currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $35.97. Our model-based fair value is $40.29, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Radian Group Inc right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Radian Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
The market capitalisation of Radian Group Inc is $4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Radian Group Inc is 2.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
Earnings per share at Radian Group Inc are $4.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
The dividend yield of Radian Group Inc is 2.8% (payout 24.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
The net margin of Radian Group Inc is 28.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Radian Group Inc is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Radian Group Inc is 10.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
The operating margin of Radian Group Inc is 40.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
Revenue at Radian Group Inc is growing +106% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Radian Group Inc (RDN)?
Earnings per share at Radian Group Inc are growing +18.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Radian Group Inc (RDN) carry?
The net debt of Radian Group Inc is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026