MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $6.2B
MGIC Investment Corporation
MTG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +8.4% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 49% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($34.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.37 – $30.95 · fair‑value band $34.04 – $56.73 · the $30.48 price screens below the $45.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) currently trades at $30.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.39, implying the stock looks roughly 48.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, MGIC Investment Corporation generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 59.6%. Revenue declined 3.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.1%. Net debt stands at $271M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $34.04 (bear case) to $56.73 (bull case); at $30.48, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at 49%, MTG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($34.08) versus Dividend Discount ($6.20). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MGIC Investment Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services in the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam.
Full company description
MGIC Investment Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services in the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam. The company offers primary insurance that provides mortgage default protection on individual loans, as well as covers unpaid loan principal, delinquent interest, and various expenses associated with the default and subsequent foreclosure on the mortgage or sale of the underlying property. It also provides contract underwriting services, as well as reinsurance services. The company serves originators of residential mortgage loans, including savings institutions, commercial banks, mortgage brokers, credit unions, mortgage bankers, and other lenders. The company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MGIC Investment Corporation reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was $738M in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
Watch MTG: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MTG Q2 Deep Dive: Lower Revenue and Margin Compression Amid Stable Credit Conditions
- MGIC Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Miss on Lower Premiums
- MGIC (MTG) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
- MGIC Investment (MTG) Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates
Peer Group
Insurance - Specialty · 32 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF | $49.53 | $29.08 | -41% |
| AXIS Capital Holdings AXS | $114.62 | $177.90 | +55% |
| First American Financial Corporation FAF | $70.06 | $79.33 | +13% |
| Enact Holdings ACT | $46.52 | $62.79 | +35% |
| Essent Group ESNT | $66.71 | $97.33 | +46% |
| Radian Group RDN | $39.14 | $56.98 | +46% |
| Protector Forsikring ASA PROT | kr 485.80 | kr 418.04 | -14% |
| Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO | $82.49 | $147.67 | +79% |
| NMI Holdings NMIH | $41.16 | $66.55 | +62% |
| nib holdings limited, NHF | A$7.27 | A$5.31 | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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