AXIS Capital Holdings (AXS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $7.6B
AXIS Capital Holdings
AXS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −8.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 72% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($133.43). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.59 – $119.27 · fair‑value band $133.43 – $222.38 · the $103.49 price screens below the $177.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
AXIS Capital Holdings (AXS) currently trades at $103.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $177.90, implying the stock looks roughly 71.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, AXIS Capital Holdings generated revenue of $6.7B at a net margin of 16.0%. Revenue grew 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.4%. Net debt stands at $673M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $133.43 (bear case) to $222.38 (bull case); at $103.49, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at 72%, AXS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($120.71) versus Dividend Discount ($32.62). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides various specialty insurance and reinsurance products in Bermuda, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Insurance and Reinsurance.
Full company description
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides various specialty insurance and reinsurance products in Bermuda, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Insurance and Reinsurance. Its Insurance segment offers professional insurance products that cover directors' and officers' liability, errors and omissions, employment practices, fiduciary, crime, professional indemnity, medical malpractice, environmental liability, and other financial insurance related coverages for commercial enterprises, financial institutions, not-for-profit organizations, and other professional service providers; and property insurance products for commercial buildings, residential premises, construction projects, property in transit, onshore renewable energy installations, and physical damage and business interruption following an act of terrorism. This segment also provides marine and aviation insurance services for offshore energy, offshore renewable energy, ocean marine, cargo, liability, including kidnap and ransom, fine art, specie, and hull war, hull and liability, and specific war coverage for passenger airlines, cargo operations, general aviation operations, airports, aviation authorities, security firms, and product manufacturers; personal accident, travel insurance, specialty health products for employer and affinity groups, and pet insurance products; and liability, cyber, and credit and political risk insurance services. The Reinsurance segment offers agriculture, marine and aviation, catastrophe, accident and health, credit and surety, motor, professional, travel, life, engineering, property, and liability reinsurance products. AXIS Capital Holdings Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AXIS Capital Holdings reported revenue of $6.6B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0B in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.
Watch AXS: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AXIS Capital (AXS) Stock Looks Undervalued Despite Strong Returns And Deal Risk
- AXIS Agrees to Acquire Renewal Rights to DUAL North America's Excess Liability Business
- Why AXIS Capital (AXS) Stock Is Nosediving
Peer Group
Insurance - Specialty · 32 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF | $49.53 | $29.08 | -41% |
| First American Financial Corporation FAF | $70.06 | $79.33 | +13% |
| Enact Holdings ACT | $46.52 | $62.79 | +35% |
| MGIC Investment Corporation MTG | $29.47 | $45.39 | +54% |
| Essent Group ESNT | $66.71 | $97.33 | +46% |
| Radian Group RDN | $39.14 | $56.98 | +46% |
| Protector Forsikring ASA PROT | kr 485.80 | kr 418.04 | -14% |
| Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO | $82.49 | $147.67 | +79% |
| NMI Holdings NMIH | $41.16 | $66.55 | +62% |
| nib holdings limited, NHF | A$7.27 | A$5.31 | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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