NMI Holdings (NMIH) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.1B
NMI Holdings
NMIH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price +8.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 49% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($49.91). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.48 – $44.94 · fair‑value band $49.91 – $83.19 · the $44.63 price screens below the $66.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
NMI Holdings (NMIH) currently trades at $44.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $66.55, implying the stock looks roughly 49.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, NMI Holdings generated revenue of $717M at a net margin of 53.8%. Revenue grew 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at $373M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $49.91 (bear case) to $83.19 (bull case); at $44.63, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at 49%, NMIH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($47.76) versus Dividend Discount ($1.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NMI Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States. It provides primary mortgage insurance services; and outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators.
Full company description
NMI Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States. It provides primary mortgage insurance services; and outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators. The company serves national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders, and other non-bank lenders. NMI Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NMI Holdings reported revenue of $706M in FY2025 versus $486M in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was $389M in FY2025, compounding +13.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- NMIH Q2 Deep Dive: Portfolio Growth and Stable Credit Drive Outperformance
- NMIH Q2 Earnings Beat on Premium Growth and Lower Claims
- NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and EPS Amid Strong ...
- NMI Holdings (NMIH) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Peer Group
Insurance - Specialty · 32 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF | $49.53 | $29.08 | -41% |
| AXIS Capital Holdings AXS | $114.62 | $177.90 | +55% |
| First American Financial Corporation FAF | $70.06 | $79.33 | +13% |
| Enact Holdings ACT | $46.52 | $62.79 | +35% |
| MGIC Investment Corporation MTG | $29.47 | $45.39 | +54% |
| Essent Group ESNT | $66.71 | $97.33 | +46% |
| Radian Group RDN | $39.14 | $56.98 | +46% |
| Protector Forsikring ASA PROT | kr 485.80 | kr 418.04 | -14% |
| Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO | $82.49 | $147.67 | +79% |
| nib holdings limited, NHF | A$7.27 | A$5.31 | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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