Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aguas Andinas S.A stock CLP 298, price CLP 333, upside -10.6%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 100.32 CLP – 385.48 CLP · fair‑value band 195.06 CLP – 457.86 CLP · the 333.00 CLP price screens above the 297.71 CLP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Aguas Andinas S.A., together with its subsidiaries, constructs and operates as a water utility company in Chile. It engages in the catchment of raw water; production, transportation, and distribution of water; and the collection, treatment, and disposal of sewage.
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The company provides integral advisory and management services in sewage and liquid waste; sells equipment and nonconventional renewable energies; develops energy projects relating to sanitation companies; and offers laboratory sampling and environmental analysis services.
It delivers potable water, sewerage, and wastewater treatment services to approximately two million residential, commercial, and industrial clients. The company was formerly known as Empresa Metropolitana de Obras Sanitarias and changed its name to Aguas Andinas S.A. in 2001.
Aguas Andinas S.A. was founded in 1861 and is based in Santiago, Chile. The company operates as a subsidiary of Inversiones Aguas Metropolitanas S.A.
Stock analysis
Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A) currently trades at 333.00 CLP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 297.71 CLP, 10.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 374.99 CLP per share, and 9 of the 23 models we run sit above the 333.00 CLP price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 79.50 CLP, and 14 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 195.06 CLP (bear) to 457.86 CLP (bull), the price of 333.00 CLP sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Aguas Andinas S.A reported revenue of 713B CLP in FY2025 versus 506B CLP in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was 140B CLP in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.0T CLP (≈ $2.1B) Mid · P/E ratio 13.7 · P/S ratio 2.77 · EPS (TTM) 23.15 CLP · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 19.2% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −11%, AGUAS-A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear195.06 CLPFair Value 297.71 CLPBull457.86 CLP
Price 333.00 CLP · Upside -10.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (10.34 CLP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in CLP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in CLP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 38%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Chile: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 4.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.1% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−10.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.7% · Above median
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)19.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)32.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.92× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
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Is Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 297.71 CLP versus a price of 333.00 CLP, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AGUAS-A?
Our model-based fair value for Aguas Andinas S.A is 297.71 CLP (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 333.00 CLP.
What is the quality score of AGUAS-A?
Aguas Andinas S.A has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 297.71 CLP (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 195.06 CLP, optimistic scenario 457.86 CLP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aguas Andinas S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 297.71 CLP, about −11% upside versus a price of 333.00 CLP (overvalued). Cautious scenario 195.06 CLP, optimistic scenario 457.86 CLP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
Aguas Andinas S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 737B CLP (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Aguas Andinas S.A pay a dividend?
Aguas Andinas S.A currently shows a dividend yield of 3.08% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aguas Andinas S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +9.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGUAS-A use?
Our models discount Aguas Andinas S.A at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Chile. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aguas Andinas S.A that is +9.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aguas Andinas S.A grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies +9.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aguas Andinas S.A (+9.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.74 %: that much free cash flow Aguas Andinas S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aguas Andinas S.A it is 297.71 CLP per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of 333.00 CLP. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aguas Andinas S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, AGUAS-A trades above its calculated fair value: price 333.00 CLP, fair value 297.71 CLP, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGUAS-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (333.00 CLP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (297.71 CLP). For Aguas Andinas S.A the two are 35.29 CLP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aguas Andinas S.A worth?
The market values Aguas Andinas S.A at about 2.0T CLP (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is 333.00 CLP; our models calculate a fair value of 297.71 CLP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGUAS-A?
Our models span a range for Aguas Andinas S.A: cautious scenario 195.06 CLP, base 297.71 CLP, optimistic 457.86 CLP per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price 333.00 CLP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGUAS-A?
Aguas Andinas S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.7 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 297.71 CLP is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aguas Andinas S.A (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.92 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGUAS-A from its 52-week high?
Aguas Andinas S.A trades at 333.00 CLP, about 14% below its 52-week high of 385.48 CLP and 5% above the low of 316.00 CLP (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 297.71 CLP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aguas Andinas S.A?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, American States Water Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aguas Andinas S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price 333.00 CLP, calculated fair value 297.71 CLP (−11%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGUAS-A calculated?
We run Aguas Andinas S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 297.71 CLP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Aguas Andinas S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was 333.00 CLP. Our model-based fair value is 297.71 CLP, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aguas Andinas S.A right now?
A fairly wide model range (195.06 CLP to 457.86 CLP) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Aguas Andinas S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
The market capitalisation of Aguas Andinas S.A is 2.0T CLP (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aguas Andinas S.A is 2.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
Earnings per share at Aguas Andinas S.A are 23.15 CLP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
The dividend yield of Aguas Andinas S.A is 3.1% (payout 44.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
The net margin of Aguas Andinas S.A is 19.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aguas Andinas S.A is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aguas Andinas S.A is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
The operating margin of Aguas Andinas S.A is 32.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
Revenue at Aguas Andinas S.A is growing +6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A)?
Earnings per share at Aguas Andinas S.A are growing −38.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A) carry?
The net debt of Aguas Andinas S.A is 1.1T CLP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 2, 2026