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Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · TR · Market cap 81.7B TRY

AD Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. AHGAZ · IS
Price32.22 TRY
Fair Value30.15 TRY
Upside-6.4%
Quality54/100
Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 25/100
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Evidence: Medium Range 24.67 TRY – 33.50 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 4, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price −9.9% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from 24.67 TRY (bear) to 33.50 TRY (bull), base 30.15 TRY. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 54/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

40.00 TRY 5.80 TRY Fair Value 30.15 TRY Dec 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

43‑month range 5.80 TRY – 40.00 TRY · fair‑value band 24.67 TRY – 33.50 TRY · the 32.22 TRY price screens above the 30.15 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

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Analysis

Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ) currently trades at 32.22 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 30.15 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 6.4% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. generated revenue of 59.0B TRY at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue grew 24.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 23.9. Fundamentals as of Aug 4, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 24.67 TRY (bear case) to 33.50 TRY (bull case); at 32.22 TRY, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -6%, AHGAZ screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 72.57 TRY 134.65 TRY 236.37 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 47.25 TRY 71.62 TRY 123.04 TRY 74
ROIC Compounder 32.19 TRY 44.55 TRY 53.03 TRY 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 76.55 TRY 114.99 TRY 237.38 TRY 38
Owner Earnings 11.89 TRY 14.90 TRY 21.20 TRY 31
5Y Revenue Exit 43.99 TRY 63.73 TRY 104.58 TRY 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 53.85 TRY 83.67 TRY 141.98 TRY 41
5Y P/E Exit 40.79 TRY 67.80 TRY 102.62 TRY 38
10Y Revenue Exit 53.15 TRY 92.64 TRY 113.80 TRY 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 61.25 TRY 113.89 TRY 202.18 TRY 37
10Y P/E Exit 51.72 TRY 85.76 TRY 137.12 TRY 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 7.75 TRY 54.05 TRY 75.85 TRY 54
Lynch FV 27.92 TRY 39.89 TRY 51.86 TRY 50
PEG = 1.0 27.92 TRY 39.89 TRY 51.86 TRY 46
EPV 26.00 TRY 28.74 TRY 31.14 TRY 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 17.10 TRY 22.80 TRY 28.49 TRY 63
P/S Multiple 14.53 TRY 19.38 TRY 24.22 TRY 58
P/B Multiple 14.53 TRY 19.38 TRY 24.22 TRY 55
EV/EBIT 39.07 TRY 48.91 TRY 58.76 TRY 53
EV/EBITDA 43.93 TRY 55.39 TRY 66.85 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 29.44 TRY 37.98 TRY 46.51 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 9.49 TRY 12.71 TRY 18.98 TRY 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 72.57 TRY 134.65 TRY 236.37 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 47.25 TRY 71.62 TRY 123.04 TRY 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 14.96 TRY 15.44 TRY 15.66 TRY 61
ROIC Compounder 32.19 TRY 44.55 TRY 53.03 TRY 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 35.98 TRY 51.40 TRY 66.83 TRY 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (83.67 TRY) versus Asset-Based (12.71 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 59.0B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) +24.8%
Net margin 6.0%
Return on equity 8.6%
Free cash flow 10.1B TRY FY2025
P/E ratio 23.9
More key figures
Operating margin -1.1%
EPS (TTM) 1.35 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) +35.6%

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 4, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 17
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 51
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. engages in the wholesale, retail distribution, and sale of natural gas in Turkey. It also offers operational and consultancy services, as well as banking and finance services. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey. Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S.

Full company description

Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. engages in the wholesale, retail distribution, and sale of natural gas in Turkey. It also offers operational and consultancy services, as well as banking and finance services. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey. Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Ahlatci Holding A.S.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. reported revenue of 53.9B TRY in FY2025 versus 3.7B TRY in FY2021, a compound +95.4%/yr. Reported net income was 2.9B TRY in FY2025, compounding +116.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
53.9B TRY
Latest YoY
+36.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+31.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+82.1%
Revenue +95.4%/yr
FY21 3.7B TRY
FY22 23.5B TRY
FY23 28.9B TRY
FY24 39.5B TRY
FY25 53.9B TRY
Net income +116.8%/yr
FY21 131M TRY
FY22 2.6B TRY
FY23 4.5B TRY
FY24 2.3B TRY
FY25 2.9B TRY

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Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. · Fair Value
30.15 TRY −6%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AHGAZ

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −6% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 25% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.08× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.70× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.39× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 11.0× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 25 · sector 24
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 34 · sector 34
HEALTH 96 · sector 84
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 69

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 4, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.84 €35.80 +24%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $177.68 $85.67 -52%
NiSource Inc NI $47.07 $28.59 -39%
Uniper SE UN0 €42.80 €49.13 +15%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.03 HK$5.08 -28%
Italgas S.p.A IG €9.98 €8.11 -19%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹171.71 ₹147.74 -14%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥16.69 ¥25.71 +54%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹723.90 ₹101.36 -86%
UGI Corporation UGI $35.84 $27.13 -24%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 30.15 TRY versus a price of 32.22 TRY, about −6% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AHGAZ?
Our model-based fair value for Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is 30.15 TRY (as of Aug 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 32.22 TRY.
What is the quality score of AHGAZ?
Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. has a Quality Score of 54/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 59.0B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 4, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AHGAZ?
The net profit margin of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is about 6.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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