Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. engages in the wholesale, retail distribution, and sale of natural gas in Turkey. It also offers operational and consultancy services, as well as banking and finance services. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey. Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S.
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Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. engages in the wholesale, retail distribution, and sale of natural gas in Turkey. It also offers operational and consultancy services, as well as banking and finance services. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey. Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Ahlatci Holding A.S.
Stock analysis
Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ) currently trades at 40.98 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 46.75 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 12.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 67.81 TRY per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the 40.98 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12.71 TRY, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 32.73 TRY (bear) to 60.78 TRY (bull), the price of 40.98 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. reported revenue of 53.9B TRY in FY2025 versus 3.7B TRY in FY2021, a compound +95.4%/yr. Reported net income was 2.9B TRY in FY2025, compounding +116.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 105B TRY (≈ $2.1B) · P/E ratio 30.4 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) 1.35 TRY · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% · Operating margin −1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 14%, AHGAZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 32.73 TRYFair Value 46.75 TRYBull 60.78 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.9653 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+36.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+82.1%
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−24% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth25% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AHGAZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 46.75 TRY versus a price of 40.98 TRY, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AHGAZ?
Our model-based fair value for Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is 46.75 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 40.98 TRY.
What is the quality score of AHGAZ?
Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 46.75 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 32.73 TRY, optimistic scenario 60.78 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 46.75 TRY, about +14% upside versus a price of 40.98 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 32.73 TRY, optimistic scenario 60.78 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 59.0B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. would have to grow free cash flow by -0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +82.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AHGAZ use?
Our models discount Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. that is -0.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. grew +82.1 % a year. The price currently implies -0.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (-0.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.65 %: that much free cash flow Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. it is 46.75 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 40.98 TRY. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AHGAZ trades below its calculated fair value: price 40.98 TRY, fair value 46.75 TRY, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AHGAZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (40.98 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (46.75 TRY). For Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. the two are 5.77 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. worth?
The market values Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. at about 105B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 40.98 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 46.75 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AHGAZ?
Our models span a range for Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S.: cautious scenario 32.73 TRY, base 46.75 TRY, optimistic 60.78 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 40.98 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AHGAZ?
Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 46.75 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 11.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AHGAZ from its 52-week high?
Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. trades at 40.98 TRY, about 2% below its 52-week high of 40.36 TRY and 96% above the low of 20.86 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 46.75 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 40.98 TRY, calculated fair value 46.75 TRY (+14%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AHGAZ calculated?
We run Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 46.75 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. currently trades 14 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
The closing price on Sep 17, 2026 was 40.98 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 46.75 TRY, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. right now?
A fairly wide model range (32.73 TRY to 60.78 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S.
How large is the market capitalisation of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
The market capitalisation of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is 105B TRY (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is 1.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
Earnings per share at Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. are 1.35 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
The net margin of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
The operating margin of Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
Revenue at Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. is growing +24.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. (AHGAZ)?
Earnings per share at Ahlatci Dogal Gaz Dagitim Enerji ve Yatirim A.S. are growing +35.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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