EN DE
Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation

Alibaba Group (AHLA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alibaba Group €61.44, price €93.50, upside -34.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · DE · ISIN US01609W1027

AG Broad data Sep 28, 2026

Alibaba Group

AHLA · XETRA

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value €61.44 · Overvalued (−34.3%)
!Quality 48/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!7.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 39/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€161.40 €58.86 Fair Value €61.44 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €58.86 – €161.40 · fair‑value band €50.27 – €88.76 · the €93.50 price screens above the €61.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

Show more

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace. The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service. Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Alibaba Group (AHLA) currently trades at €93.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €61.44, 34.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €251.39 per share, and 6 of the 17 models we run sit above the €93.50 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €13.02, and 11 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €50.27 (bear) to €88.76 (bull), the price of €93.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Alibaba Group reported revenue of 1.0T CNY in FY2026 versus 853B CNY in FY2022, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was 104B CNY in FY2026, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €225B · P/E ratio 16.5 · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) €5.68 · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −34%, AHLA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €50.27 Fair Value €61.44 Bull €88.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €51.77 €57.79 €77.25 76
EPV €10.57 €13.02 €15.19 74
ROIC Compounder €10.57 €13.02 €15.19 72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €22.93 €58.13 €135.36 69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €38.94 €271.57 €381.11 63
Lynch FV €130.76 €186.80 €242.84 61
PEG = 1.0 €130.76 €186.80 €242.84 57
EPV €10.57 €13.02 €15.19 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €17.94 €39.16 €65.89 65
DDM Multi-Stage €17.94 €32.08 €40.81 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €94.49 €125.99 €157.48 63
P/S Multiple €50.93 €67.91 €84.88 58
P/B Multiple €73.01 €97.35 €121.69 55
EV/EBIT €34.14 €46.61 €59.09 66
EV/EBITDA €45.10 €61.23 €77.37 67
EV/Revenue €21.94 €32.75 €43.56 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €29.10 €39.00 €58.20 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €51.77 €57.79 €77.25 76
ROIC Compounder €10.57 €13.02 €15.19 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €175.98 €251.39 €326.81 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Notify me when AHLA reaches fair value

Put AHLA on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +26.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.7% vs 9.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)

AHLA screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →

Compare Alibaba Group with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Amazon.com, Inc AMZN $249.15 $127.33 −49%
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,725 $1,897 +10%
Prosus N.V PRX €34.82 €51.24 +47%
DoorDash, Inc DASH $178.39 $196.23 +10%
Sea Limited SE $95.27 $129.32 +36%
eBay Inc EBAY $107.32 $118.05 +10%
JD.com, Inc JD $26.30 $33.32 +27%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $13.88 $4.96 −64%
Wayfair Inc W $102.56 $34.72 −66%
Allegro.eu S.A ALE 49.56 PLN 54.51 PLN +10%

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector Compare toolTwo stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Alibaba Group · Fair Value
€61.44 −34%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alibaba Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AHLA

Frequently asked questions

Is Alibaba Group (AHLA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €61.44 versus a price of €93.50, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AHLA?
Our model-based fair value for Alibaba Group is €61.44 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €93.50.
What is the quality score of AHLA?
Alibaba Group has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €61.44 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario €50.27, optimistic scenario €88.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alibaba Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €61.44, about −34% upside versus a price of €93.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €50.27, optimistic scenario €88.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
Alibaba Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0T CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Alibaba Group pay a dividend?
Alibaba Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alibaba Group it is €61.44 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €93.50. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alibaba Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, AHLA trades above its calculated fair value: price €93.50, fair value €61.44, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AHLA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€93.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€61.44). For Alibaba Group the two are €32.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alibaba Group worth?
The market values Alibaba Group at about €225B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €93.50; our models calculate a fair value of €61.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AHLA?
Our models span a range for Alibaba Group: cautious scenario €50.27, base €61.44, optimistic €88.76 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €93.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is AHLA from its 52-week high?
Alibaba Group trades at €93.50, about 42% below its 52-week high of €160.94 and 12% above the low of €83.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €61.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alibaba Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, MercadoLibre, Inc, Prosus N.V, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alibaba Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €93.50, calculated fair value €61.44 (−34%), Quality Score 48/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AHLA calculated?
We run Alibaba Group through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €61.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alibaba Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €93.50. Our model-based fair value is €61.44, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alibaba Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€88.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Alibaba Group (AHLA) come from?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group grew +9.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +27.9 %, EBIT margin −11.2 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Alibaba Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
The market capitalisation of Alibaba Group is €225B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Alibaba Group is 16.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alibaba Group is 1.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group are €5.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
The dividend yield of Alibaba Group is 7.7% (payout 128%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
The net margin of Alibaba Group is 10.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alibaba Group is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alibaba Group is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
The operating margin of Alibaba Group is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
Revenue at Alibaba Group is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alibaba Group (AHLA)?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group are growing +104% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alibaba Group (AHLA) generate?
The free cash flow of Alibaba Group is −50.7B CNY (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alibaba Group (AHLA) carry?
The net debt of Alibaba Group is 85.8B CNY (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed

Continue in the live analysis

Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Open the live analysis →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.