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Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V €46.34, price €31.55, upside +46.9%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · DE · ISIN NL0011794037

KA Broad data Sep 28, 2026

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V

AHOG · XETRA

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value €46.34 · Undervalued (+46.9%)
✓Quality 70/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.9% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 41/100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€41.82 €20.22 Fair Value €46.34 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €20.22 – €41.82 · fair‑value band €32.74 – €62.13 · the €31.55 price screens below the €46.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. operates retail food stores and e-commerce in the Netherlands, the United States, and internationally.

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Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. operates retail food stores and e-commerce in the Netherlands, the United States, and internationally. The company's stores offer produce, dairy, meat, deli, bakery, seafood, and frozen products; grocery, beer, and wine; floral, pet food, health and beauty care, kitchen and cookware, gardening tools, general merchandise articles, electronics, newspapers and magazines, and tobacco; gasoline; and pharmacy products. It operates its supermarkets, convenience stores, and online stores under the Albert, Albert Heijin, Alfa Beta Vassilopoulos, bol, Delhaize, ENA, Food Lion, Gall & Gall, Giant Food, The GIANT Company, Hannaford, Maxi, Mega Image, Stop & Shop, Profi, and Super Indo brands. The company was formerly known as Koninklijke Ahold N.V. and changed its name to Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. in July 2016. The company was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Zaandam, the Netherlands.

Stock analysis

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG) currently trades at €31.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €46.34, implying the stock looks roughly 31.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €87.08 per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the €31.55 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €10.79, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €32.74 (bear) to €62.13 (bull), the price of €31.55 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V reported revenue of €92.4B in FY2025 versus €75.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was €2.3B in FY2025, compounding +0.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €31.6B · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) €2.52 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 47%, AHOG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €32.74 Fair Value €46.34 Bull €62.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.9679 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €93.28 €138.85 €205.41 80
Growth DCF €95.65 €137.26 €195.05 79
Owner Earnings €49.33 €73.70 €109.29 76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €93.28 €138.85 €205.41 80
Owner Earnings €49.33 €73.70 €109.29 76
5Y Revenue Exit €53.11 €73.02 €96.83 73
5Y EBITDA Exit €76.45 €115.28 €158.80 75
5Y P/E Exit €55.49 €77.32 €98.94 72
10Y Revenue Exit €66.12 €87.08 €112.18 68
10Y EBITDA Exit €81.80 €115.91 €158.08 69
10Y P/E Exit €68.61 €90.01 €113.75 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €17.46 €45.65 €59.56 65
PEG = 1.0 €8.70 €12.43 €16.16 57
EPV €27.22 €31.95 €36.09 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €11.14 €22.48 €36.76 66
DDM Multi-Stage €11.14 €17.15 €23.60 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €40.44 €53.93 €67.41 63
P/S Multiple €32.74 €43.65 €54.57 58
P/B Multiple €32.74 €43.65 €54.57 55
EV/EBIT €46.22 €62.02 €77.81 66
EV/EBITDA €76.35 €102.19 €128.03 67
EV/Revenue €32.66 €47.15 €61.65 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €8.05 €10.79 €16.10 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €95.65 €137.26 €195.05 79
Rev-Margin DCF €53.11 €74.46 €98.50 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income €16.82 €21.00 €30.15 75
ROIC Compounder €28.65 €35.95 €44.24 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €31.59 €45.13 €58.67 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.5% vs 12.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.8% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.3%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 71 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +69.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15.0% · Above median
Return on assets 4.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.32× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 2.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.40× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.3× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.51× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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CP ALL Public Company CPALL 43.00 THB 58.21 THB +35%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €46.34 versus a price of €31.55, about +47% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AHOG?
Our model-based fair value for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is €46.34 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €31.55.
What is the quality score of AHOG?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €46.34 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €32.74, optimistic scenario €62.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €46.34, about +47% upside versus a price of €31.55 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €32.74, optimistic scenario €62.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €91.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V pay a dividend?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V would have to grow free cash flow by -21.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AHOG use?
Our models discount Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V that is -21.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies -21.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (-21.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.48 %: that much free cash flow Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V it is €46.34 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €31.55. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, AHOG trades below its calculated fair value: price €31.55, fair value €46.34, a gap of about +47% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AHOG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€31.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€46.34). For Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V the two are €14.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V worth?
The market values Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V at about €31.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €31.55; our models calculate a fair value of €46.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AHOG?
Our models span a range for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V: cautious scenario €32.74, base €46.34, optimistic €62.13 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €31.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AHOG?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €46.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 2.6, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AHOG?
The PEG ratio of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is 2.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AHOG from its 52-week high?
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V trades at €31.55, about 25% below its 52-week high of €41.82 and 3% above the low of €30.55 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €46.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, George Weston Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €31.55, calculated fair value €46.34 (+47%), Quality Score 70/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AHOG calculated?
We run Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €46.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €31.55. Our model-based fair value is €46.34, about +47% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€32.74). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (€32.74 to €62.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG) come from?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V grew +10.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.0 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V

How large is the market capitalisation of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
The market capitalisation of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is €31.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is 0.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V are €2.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
The dividend yield of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is 3.9% (payout 49.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
The net margin of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is 2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
The operating margin of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
Revenue at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is growing −4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG)?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V are growing +3.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V (AHOG) carry?
The net debt of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V is €14.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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