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Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc $2.25, price $2.54, upside -11.3%, quality 24 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Real Estate · US · ISIN US0441031095

AH Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc

AHT · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $2.25 · Overvalued (−11%)
!Quality 24/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −5.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -20.4% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 18 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$520.00 $2.54 Fair Value $2.25 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.54 – $520.00 · the $2.54 price screens above the $2.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, is a real estate investment trust.

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Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, is a real estate investment trust. While our portfolio currently consists of upscale hotels and upper upscale full-service hotels, our investment strategy is predominantly focused on investing in upper upscale full-service hotels in the United States that have revenue per available room generally less than twice the U.S. national average, and in all methods including direct real estate, equity and debt. We currently anticipate future investments will predominantly be in upper upscale hotels. We own our lodging investments and conduct our business through Ashford Hospitality Limited Partnership, our operating partnership. Ashford OP General Partner LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Ashford Trust, serves as the sole general partner of our operating partnership. Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. was established on May 15th, 2003 and incorporated in Maryland.

Stock analysis

Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) currently trades at $2.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.25, implying the stock looks roughly 12.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 5 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $805M in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$180M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $19.9M · EPS (TTM) $−42.11 · Net margin −16.3% · Return on equity −2,260% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin 6.7% · Revenue (TTM) $1.1B · Revenue growth (YoY) −3.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −11%, AHT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA $13.88 $145.13 $276.38 58
All 1 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $13.88 $145.13 $276.38 58

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 8

Profitability 5
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 13
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 3
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−91.6% (2020) → 5.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

AHT screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Hotel & Motel · 35 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −11% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −20% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Hotel & Motel median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 12.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.86× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)18 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 2
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 6
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 74
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 100

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Hotel & Motel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc HST $22.28 $18.98 −15%
Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc RHP $121.55 $65.57 −46%
COVH COVH €21.10 €35.74 +69%
Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc APLE $15.78 $17.87 +13%
Park Hotels & Resorts inc. PK $15.19 $14.95 −2%
DiamondRock Hospitality Company DRH $12.31 $8.84 −28%
Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc SHO $11.09 $6.05 −45%
Pebblebrook Hotel Trust PEB $18.26 $25.36 +39%
Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc XHR $17.89 $8.49 −53%
RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) RLJ $11.03 $7.71 −30%

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Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc · Fair Value
$2.25 −13%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AHT

Frequently asked questions

Is Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.25 versus a price of $2.54, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AHT?
Our model-based fair value for Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is $2.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.54.
What is the quality score of AHT?
Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.25, about −11% upside versus a price of $2.54 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc it is $2.25 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $2.54. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AHT trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.54, fair value $2.25, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AHT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.25). For Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc the two are $0.2870 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc worth?
The market values Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc at about $19.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $2.54; our models calculate a fair value of $2.25 per share.
What is the PEG ratio of AHT?
The PEG ratio of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is 0.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AHT from its 52-week high?
Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc trades at $2.54, about 58% below its 52-week high of $6.01 and at the low of $2.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc, Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc, COVH, Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $2.54, calculated fair value $2.25 (−11%), Quality Score 24/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AHT calculated?
We run Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $2.54. Our model-based fair value is $2.25, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
The market capitalisation of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is $19.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
Earnings per share at Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc are $−42.11. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
The net margin of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is −16.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is −2,260% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
The operating margin of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)?
Revenue at Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is growing −3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) generate?
The free cash flow of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is −$21.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) carry?
The net debt of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is $2.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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