Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc (AHT) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · US · Market cap $19.9M

Below-average quality, and screening another 32% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The model range is unusually wide ($0.7440 to $5.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.59 – $667.00 · fair‑value band $0.7440 – $5.66 · the $3.24 price screens above the $2.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc (AHT) currently trades at $3.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.21, implying the stock looks roughly 31.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of -20.4%. Revenue declined 3.4% year over year. Net debt stands at $2.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.7440 (bear case) to $5.66 (bull case); at $3.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -32%, AHT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, is a real estate investment trust. While our portfolio currently consists of upscale hotels and upper upscale full-service hotels, our investment strategy is predominantly focused on investing in upper upscale full-service hotels in the United States that have revenue per available room …

Full company description

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, is a real estate investment trust. While our portfolio currently consists of upscale hotels and upper upscale full-service hotels, our investment strategy is predominantly focused on investing in upper upscale full-service hotels in the United States that have revenue per available room generally less than twice the U.S. national average, and in all methods including direct real estate, equity and debt. We currently anticipate future investments will predominantly be in upper upscale hotels. We own our lodging investments and conduct our business through Ashford Hospitality Limited Partnership, our operating partnership. Ashford OP General Partner LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Ashford Trust, serves as the sole general partner of our operating partnership. Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. was established on May 15th, 2003 and incorporated in Maryland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $805M in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$180M in FY2025.

AHT screens 32% overvalued. Compare with Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc →

Peer Group

REIT - Hotel & Motel · 35 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Hotel & Motel median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.